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JT vs JONES - HORSE RACING ANALOGY (THOROUGHBREDS)

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loverbuck's picture
November 8, 2015 at 2:36pm
21 Comments

Background:

Smarty Jones (ridden by Elliott) see video.

2014 Prior Results:  Kentucky Derby, Preakness, and Belmont Stakes victories. Undefeated.

Running Style: off the pace, stalking, pulls away down the stretch.

Owner: OSU Stables

Trainer: Warriner/Beck

JT's Pet

Prior Results;  numerous $10K claiming race victories.

Running Style: Wire to Wire, goal is to bury all competitors from the jump.

Owner: OSU Stables

Trainer: Warriner/Beck

http://articles.latimes.com/1987-04-12/sports/sp-1077_1_kentucky-derby

 

Outlook:

Warriner/Beck have taken over the training duties for OSU stables in 2015.  This is an important year for OSU Stables as they have qualified 1 horse for this years Breeders Cup Classic, the most prestigious horse race in the United States. Who will it be, Jones or JT?

Jones is a huge horse, almost 11 hands tall, with incredible stamina. In 2015, Jones' results have been mixed. Jones has won all races started, however, he appears off his form. Inexplicably to racing experts, Warriner/Beck have been forcing Jones to run wire to wire this season, a marked difference from his "off the pace" championship form of last yaer.  Jones appears so uncomfortable with what he's being asked to do, one expert commented " why would you force a champion athlete like Jones to change his style". . . "its like asking Babe Ruth to bunt, or Dan Marino to run on first down."

JT, while not as large as Jones, is by no means a small horse, standing 9 hands tall, with a thick powerful gait. In 2015, JT has picked up right where he left off last year after a freak hoof injury.  As one would expect, JT has demolished the inferior fields he has been racing against. In fact,  in the last 13 claiming races JT has started, he has won running away in all of them. However, expert handicappers are not universally sold on JT.  Its one thing to win a claiming race, but how will JT handle the incredible jump in class that a Breeders Cup Classic presents?  In fact, while running "wire to wire" is a thing of beauty, its rarely successful in Grade 1 stakes races, the competition is just too difficult. According to Bobby Baffert, America's preeminent flat track trainer, "I love competing against a front runner, it allows me to know exactly what my horse and jockey need to do to win the race. Its all laid out right in front of you."  In fact, if you look at Baffert's past success, there have been very few front running horses who were able to compete with Baffert in the most prestigious races. 

It will be interesting to see what the Warriner/Beck led OSU Stables does in this years Breeders Cup Classic.  Do they start the undefeated Jones, allowing him to run the race he is most comfortable and most successful with.  Jones proved last year that he has the goods to win it all in impressive fashion, it is a known that he CAN win it all.  Or do they start JT and ask him to run "wire to wire" against a huge jump in class where the other trainers know exactly how JT is going to run his race.

Do you ride the horse that won it all last year, or do you ride the horse who has looked the most impressive this year, all be it, against inferior competition?

 

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