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Tressel vs. Meyer: Resilient vs. Antifragile

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chadwyck11's picture
July 25, 2015 at 2:14pm
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Jim Tressel's teams were resilient. Urban Meyer's teams are anti-fragile. Nassim Taleb writes about the differenecs in his book "Anti-Fragile: Things that gain from disorder" defines the difference like this:

"Antifragility is beyond resilience or robustness. The resilient resists shocks and stays the same; the antifragile gets better."

fragile, resilient, antifragile

Through this lens of resilience/antifragility, I will compare the on-field strategies of Jim Tressel and Urban Meyer. I won't be discussing *ichigan and Fragility today.

Tressel was Resilient

Resilient systems are unaffected by change and volatility (up to a point). A mountain will resist kicks, hits from hammers, collisions with cars, etc, but won't resist dynamite. Tressel's teams were like rolling stones. Opponents knew the strategy: run Dave left, Dave right, run the occasional option, throw the occasional pass (and nearly-automatic 3rd and 16 conversions by Pryor), and take a field goal if in range. If out of field goal range, the mighty punt was utilized, setting up favorable field position and giving the defense multiple opportunities to stop opponents on their drives down the field. The offense ran out the clock, always. The slow juggernaut of Tressel's offense meant that opponents had few chances to get ahead, extend their lead, or to come back if they were down points.

The main takeaway here is limiting downsides. Do not put your opponent in a favorable position. Do not give them a chance to score. Do not make mistakes. Wear down opposing teams by repeatedly executing the same, safe plays. This lack of downside led to an 83% winning percentage for Tressel. The first rule of winning football games is to not lose football games and Tressel's team rarely lost through their own mistakes. College football is a game of mistakes and so building a generally mistake-free strategy was VERY effective. This is resilience.

This strategy has limited upside potential, though. Tressel's teams were never too far ahead and could not build large leads. When teams brought the dynamite, there was nothing to be done because stone cannot adapt. USC brought dynamite. Florida brought dynamite. Dynamite means trouble even if you're a rock-- especially if you're a rock. In these cases, the OSU teams just broke down and could not overcome the point deficits.

Urban Meyer is Antifragile
Antifragile systems do not resist change and volatility, they benefit from it. In the above table, the myth for anti-fragile is the Hydra. The Hydra benefits from getting its head cut off, because two will grow in its place. Teams can shut down one part of Meyer's offense (e.g. the inside run), but it only makes the other pieces stronger.

The Meyer offense is about variation and getting lots of touches on the ball. It's about having multiple weapons on offense and attacking all areas of the field. The offense actually benefits from opponents selling out to stop any one aspect of it. Stop the run and get hurt with passes. Attack the RB and the QB keeps.

The Meyer strategy maximizes the upside of plays. The more touches that OSU has under Meyer, the more chances it has to go the entire length of the field and score. There are more low-percentage "home run" attempts for Meyer's teams, meaning that the potential upside for any play is high. The payoff (7 points) is worth the incomplete downfield passes, unsuccessful screens, and failed 4th down attempts. Tressel limited the number of plays to limit the opportunities for mistakes. Meyer wants more plays per game to get more chances to score.

Execution is always important, but especially in Meyer's offense. If the O-line can't protect, the wide receivers can't make someone miss, or the QB makes the wrong read, the offense becomes 1-dimensional or even worse, a "clown show". Re-watch the Miami (Ohio) game from 2012 for an example of this. Compare that to the National Championship game, where an insane number of turnovers could not diminish the upside of the offense.

Resilience and Antifragility off the field
This comparison could be made in other aspects of their respective programs. Jim Tressel avoided losing the top Ohio talent, whereas Urban Meyer chases the top national talent. Tressel aimed to develope his kids and was loyal to his upper-classmen. Meyer recruits first-year starters and creates an environment where only the strong survive.

Conclusion

The main difference between Tressel and Meyer is the potential upside of their strategies. On any given play, Tressel's teams had a high probability of short gains.  The teams were built not to lose. Meyer's teams have a low probability of huge gains. By running many plays per game, Meyer's offenses have more big plays. Meyer's teams are built to win.

Go Bucks!

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