After reading up on all the articles posted on 11W and doing a bit of my own research (with the limited time I have, so I apologize in advance for any mistakes) I have come up with three keys, or "T's" as I like to call them, that impact the Buckeye's chances tomorrow night.

I will first run through each "T," providing numbers and where each team ranks in the country, and then I will give a more detailed explanation as to why I find these stats to be the most important for Satuday night. Counter arguments/points welcomed, I am going to be very critical of the Bucks in hopes that someone can ease my nervousness. Hope you all enjoy.

1. TURNOVERS: must limit these Mr. Jones
   • Ohio State has a turnover margin of +5 (#32)
     • In Ohio States wins, they are +5 again
     • In losses, they are at 0
   • Wisconsin has a turnover margin of -2 (#72)
     • In Wisconsin's wins, they are +3
     • In losses, they are at -5
   • By the numbers, Ohio State is much less prone (+7) to turning the ball over than the Wisconsin offense, which at first glance is surprising given the fact that Ohio State throws the ball much more than Wisconsin. And as most of us know, "when you throw the ball, 3 things happen, and 2 of those 3 things are bad for the offense."
   • Interesting to note however, Ohio State is sitting at a turnover margin of 0 for the month of November, registering 9 takeaways and 9 giveaways.
   • By the numbers, the Buckeye's win this, so I will give a check mark to the Buckeye's for "T1"
2. TIME OF POSSESSION: must be in control (for the sake of our D-line)
   • Ohio State holds the ball for an average of about 31 minutes per game (#29)
     • In the last three games that number is down to 29 minutes per game.
     • In the last game Ohio State held the ball for only 25 minutes.  
   • Wisconsin holds the ball for an average of about 33 minutes per game (#7)
     • In the last three games that number is down to 32 minutes per game.
   • Wisconsin holds a slight edge over the Buckeye's here, but I think it is more interesting to note that the Buckeyes offense has held the ball a lot less in the month of November than we are accustomed to seeing. A number of factors come in to play here.
   • By the numbers, Wisconsin wins this, so I will give a check mark to the Badger's for "T2"
3. THIRD DOWN: win this and we should be alright
   1. OFFENSE
      • As we know, Ohio State is one of the best teams in the country on offense at converting on third down.
      • Ohio State converts on 53% of their 3rd downs (#3).
        • In the last three games that number is up to 58%
        • In Ohio State's only loss, they converted on 3rd down on 25% of the time
      • Wisconsin converts on 40% of their 3rd downs (#69).
        • In the last three games that number is up to 45%
        • In Wisconsin's two losses, they converted on 3rd down only 30% of the time
   2. DEFENSE
      • Ohio State's defense holds opponents to a 3rd down conversion percentage of 38% (#40)
        • In the last three games, the defense checks in at 37%.
        • When it came to 3rd down, Ohio State's three worst games on defense came against:
          • Virginia Tech: 53%--Loss
          • Michigan St.: 53%--Win
          • scUM: 50%--Win
        • Interesting note, the Buck's defense held Minny to 36%
      • Wisconsin's defense holds opponents to a 3rd down conversion percentage of 28% (#1)
        • In the last three games, the defense checks in at 32%.
        • When it came to 3rd down, Wisconsin's three worst games on defense came against:
          • Iowa: 42%--Win
          • Illinois: 38%--Win
          • LSU: 35%--Loss
      • I am going to give the nod to no one here.

Ohio State has been prone to turning the ball over quite a bit as of late, fumbling it 6 times and throwing 3 interceptions. With the loss of Barrett we can expect the coaches to lean heavily on the running attack (more on this later). This doesn’t mean we should expect to see Elliot carry the ball a lot more than he normally does, although I do expect his workload to increase a bit. I am thinking different packages and different personnel, trying to spread the Wisconsin defense and run through gaps…similar to Meyer’s approach against the Bucks in the Nat’l title game.

3rd conversions = more time of possession // less turnovers = more time of possession … vice versa

First: Inexperienced QB’s tend to force the issue from time to time, and we are playing with an inexperienced QB. I can’t speak to Wisconsin’s QB, but I believe if we can put him in bad situations he will have a hard time completing passes.

Second: Ohio State needs to have positive plays on first and second down so CJ can be in a manageable position on third down. As you can see above, Wisconsin is very good on third down, so we shouldn’t expect CJ to convert every time, but it is key to put him and the rest of the offense in comfortable third down positions. Ohio State has to register positive plays on both first and second down. If we ask CJ to convert on third and longs time and again we can expect to see a lot of punts and probably an interception or two…or more. The Badger defense is very good on third down.

Third: If Ohio State has trouble converting on third down then Wisconsin will have the opportunity to eat up time of possession. A heavy running team that forces teams to punt almost 70% of the time is not a good combination for a thin defensive line. We know that Ohio State’s front four are amongst the best in the country, very talented group and very strong group. However, if Wisconsin is winning on third down on both offense and defense, that means they will be winning the time of possession battle, and that means in the 4th quarter Ohio State’s d-line will be running on empty. The goal of a very good running team is to wear out the defense, and that is exactly what will happen if Ohio State is not good on third downs or loses the turnover battle.

I firmly believe Ohio State has what it takes to stop the Wisconsin rushing attack. Ohio State needs to force difficult third down situations for Wisconsin, if they do so I believe we can see a lot of the same results that we saw when Ohio State played Minnesota. I also think Minnesota has more athleticism (than Wisconsin) on the outside with their WR’s, which means I fully expect Ohio State’s DB’s to lock down the Wisconsin wideouts in man to man coverage. I believe there was a write up earlier this week about playing the safeties more in run support and leaving the DB’s on an island, which I am all for. My only concern here are misdirection plays, Ohio State needs to be ready for screens and counters and what not…an aggressive defense will pay dearly if they are not under control.

If Ohio State can turn this game into a shoot-out I believe they win. If it turns into trench warfare then it will be very close. In the beginning of my analysis I said I believe Ohio State will show more run packages and run more…but I think if they can stretch the defense and show a tendency to try to go downfield they will be significantly more successful. If Ohio State can convert 1-2 deep balls per quarter (20+ yards) Wisconsin will struggle to stop the run.

These are basically my thoughts on the game…not fully thought out, but just what I have been pondering throughout the week in between classes and studying. This would feel incomplete without a prediction, my gut is telling me this game will be similar to the Minnesota game - Ohio State 34 Wisconsin 27. Go Buckeyes.