Which one of these schools has the best chance to lose and does their conference get eliminated with their loss (assuming they are the only team in the top 6 to lose)?

Alabama- plays Mizzou in the SEC Championship. 

If Bama were to lose I think that would end the hopes of an SEC team getting in the playoffs. Cant see a team who lost to Georgia 34-0 and got beat by the worse team in the B1G play for a National Championship. 

Oregon- plays Arizona in the Pac12 championship.

Arizona seems to have Oregon's number, they can't beat them in the same season twice, can they?  People are now starting to argue that the Pac12 is the best conference and unlike Mizzou, Arizona is a quality opponent. Would they get the nod?

Florida State- plays GaTech in the ACC Championship

This is most likely gonna be the #1 answer and I agree. Florida State has 1 week to prepare for the triple option and that can be a difficult task. I think I remember Urban saying they started preparing for Navy the first week of camp and they still gashed us up pretty good. I think it would be a debate if Georgia tech would get in. They would have beaten 2 top ten teams in back to back weeks. 

TCU- plays 2 win Iowa State @home.

No chance they lose. Iowa State=Awful...but yes if they did lose the Big 12 should be eliminated.

Baylor- plays top 10 team Kansas State @home.

​Im not on the K-State bandwagon like the rest of the country. Besides their KR/PR/WR I don't see anything about their game that looks great. Im not sure K-State has enough fire power to keep up with South Oregon.