All this assumes Ohio State wins out, which will be no easy task with a surging Wisconsin team likely looming ahead.
Three teams control their own destiny to reach the playoffs. No matter how ugly the wins these three are in if they win out.
Alabama
Oregon
FSU
The final spot, or spots if any of the above 3 lose, will go to 1+ of:
Miss State
Big12 top ranked team (either TCU or Baylor). I count this as one entity because even if one of the top 3 loses there is no way the Big12 will get 2 teams into the playoff.
Ohio State
Scenarios
Top 7 win out: we have roughly a 1 in 3 shot of making the playoff (maybe a little better). We could move up by beating Wisconsin while Miss State sits home, but Miss State has a comfortable margin on us right now which will only grow next week if they beat Ole Miss. B12 will be playing that final week.
The two things that would help us the most: Oregon or FSU losing. If one of these teams loses there are now 2 slots for Miss State/B12, OSU. We would have roughly a 2/3 shot of making the playoff. If both lose we are pretty much guaranteed a playoff spot if we win out.
Either Alabama or Miss State loses. We only need one of these teams to lose to guarantee 2 SEC teams will not be ahead of us. I don’t think both losing would help us as I am 99% certain the SEC will get one team in the playoffs even if the champ has two losses (and rightfully so IMO). If either Alabama or Miss State loses and the rest win out we be competing with the top Big12 team for the final spot – roughly a 50/50 shot of making the playoffs.
TCU loses OR Baylor loses but not both – doesn’t help. No way will both be ahead of us, one will be left competing with us for a playoff spot.
Both TCU and Baylor lose – huge help, now we would just be vying with Miss State for the final playoff spot if everyone else wins out.
As for the actual games this week.
Miss State at Ole Miss is a pick em game, and Alabama is a 9 point favorite at home against Auburn. Odds are somewhat in our favor that at least one of these goes our way.
FSU is a 10 point favorite at home against Florida. Florida definitely has a shot. Ga Tech has an even better shot next week.
Oregon will not lose to Or St, but the Pac-12 championship game will be a big test.
TCU is just a 7 point favorite over Texas, but TCU losing only slightly helps our cause. Baylor is a 23 point favorite over Texas Tech, but still hosts KSU in 2 weeks.
