I'm more or less typing this for myself, but I'm trying to analyze the first poll and see how the Buckeyes make their way to the top four. This of course assumes that Ohio State wins out, and wins the B1G title.
1. Mississippi State imo loses two games, maybe more if they get caught napping against Arkansas. I see them dropping games to Alabama, and Ole Miss. They're out.
2. Florida State is in. Their schedule is just a walk through basically from this point on.
3. Auburn beats Ole Miss this week eliminating them from contention. Then they turn around and lose to Texas A&M or Georgia and Alabama. They're out.
4. Ole Miss loses to Auburn this week giving them the dreaded second loss, then they do everyone a favor and seal MS state's fate the last week of the season.
5. Oregon does what they always do and drops a game at some point that shuts the door on them and their hopes to get into the playoff. Call it Stanford, call it Oregon State, call it whatever, it will probably happen.
6. Alabama, if they lose to LSU this week then the door is wide open for a melee for the rest of the season. However I think they win out, and by virtue of teams in front of them losing, they get into the first playoff.
7. TCU troubles me. I still just don't see them as a national power... However, their schedule the rest of the way is pretty easy, and more than likely they'll be favored. I'm not totally confident that their body of work gets them in if there is another 1 loss team from a power conference, so they're right on the bubble.
8. Michigan State I have obviously picked to lose to Ohio State so count them as out.
9. Kansas State will lose to TCU thus putting them out of the playoff picture.
10. Notre Dame plays ranked opponents twice more this season, both are good, neither fantastic (Louisville and Arizona State). I think AZ state makes life miserable for them, and I also think a tough game with USC is going to give them trouble.
11. Georgia... Oh Georgia... To Gurley, or not to Gurley, that is the question. If they have Gurley, or get that whole thing cleared up, I'm picking Georgia to win out and get into the playoff. Without Gurley they'll lose to Auburn, and if they don't they'll represent the SEC East and lose in the conference title game. For the sake of this post I'm saying Georgia is out pending Gurley.
12. Arizona.. C'mon it's Rich Rod... They'll screw it up at some point.
13. Baylor.. Losses to either Oklahoma, or Kansas State will derail any push Baylor hopes to make for the playoff.
14. Arizona State... Another case where this team will ultimately beat themselves. AZ state isn't a player on a national level, although they've had some decent teams recently, look for them to drop a head scratcher at some point.
15. Nebraska will strengthen our case for a bid to the playoff by winning the rest of their remaining games, then ultimately getting beat by Ohio State in the Big Ten title game.
16. Ohio State... If the above, acceptable, and believable scenarios play out, then Ohio State should find itself, at worst, as the #4 seed in the first playoff.
As it stands right now the playoff looks to me like this:
1. Florida State
2. Alabama
3. Ohio State
4. TCU (tenative and not confident in this pick)
I know prior to this I said TCU probably wouldn't get in, but if I'm saying they finish with 1 loss, and they outright win the Big 12, there is no reason they shouldn't at least make it in. I would change this prediction, however, if Todd Gurley is ruled eligible for the rest of the season because he gives UGA a shot to go all the way. Without him they will struggle, and badly when they come up against Auburn, and eventually the SEC West champion.
