Navy finished 9-4 last year. They averaged 33.5 points/game and gave up 24.3. Seems like a pretty good team, but a look under the hood revealed these callouts:
Beat B10 powerhouse Indiana 41-35
Got blown out by perennial ACC juggernaut Duke 35-7
Lost to Notre Dame in a squeaker 38-34
Actually lost to Toledo by one point (finished 5-3 in the MAC and perhaps the 5th best team in Ohio)
The current point spread is ~14. On the surface I think this is correct, but it is based on the average of two dramatically different scenarios:
1) JT struggles in his first college game. Perhaps throws a pick 6 and generally looks less than impressive. The OL doesn’t quite gel and overall the Buckeyes are inconsistent moving the ball
In this scenario the game should be close with perhaps the Buckeyes winning by as little as 7 points
2) At the end of the game we all think: JT really looked good today, made nice throws and even better decisions. The OL played well and look like they will be really good this year. Our playmakers did a nice job in open space.
If this occurs I expect the Buckeyes to win by 20+ points.
In both scenarios I believe the defense will do their job and do it pretty well. Not so much because of the new schemes and attitude, but more so because the Navy offense plays to our defensive strength (running the ball)
My Prediction: OSU 35 Navy 13
What you got?