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A Statistical Review of Thad

+26 HS
osu07asu10's picture
March 8, 2017 at 12:01am
126 Comments

I am an ardent Thad supporter.

OK, now that the worst kept secret is out of the bag let's move forward with this thing. There is growing discontent with the basketball program and a growing contingent of the fan base is calling for Thad Matta to step down or be relieved of his duties.

There is no sugar coating the last 3-4 years. They haven't lived up to the standards set in place by Matta for Ohio State. Improvement is needed and that's all I am going to say on the future for now. Plain and simple, this is a straight forward statistical review of Thad's place amongst his peers. Buckle your seatbelts Thad haters, this might get bumpy.

Let's get started.

THAD MATTA

His streak of consecutive 20 win seasons is done. The program has under performed the last 3 years. There are rumors of his death swirling in recruiting circles and parts of the fan base wouldn't mind it.

A lot of negativity for a guy who is average 26 wins a year and makes the NCAA tournament 3 out of every 4 years. But how does he stack up against Ohio State's former coaches?

OHIO STATE COACHES

  • Jim O'Brien - I disqualified his entire tenure. He cheated. He sucked so bad at cheating he and the university were sued over his failed attempt to cheat. He then lied about it, before coming clean. Only to sue the university and drag them through the mud for 2 years until he finally "won" something in court.
  • Randy Ayers - Tasted the highest of highs and lowest of lows. While fielding some talented teams, he goes down as the worst performing coach on court for the buckeyes. You'll noticed I adjusted his wins per season as they didn't play as many as the buckeyes do today. Still he averaged less than 17 wins a year and left the program in utter disarray with off the court issues to boot.
  • Gary Williams - Gone before he ever got going. We know he turned out to be an excellent coach at Maryland and one we wish could have stopped Ayers and O'Brien from ever happening.
  • Eldon Miller - A decade long run of mediocrity sprinkled with some decent teams. Never won a B1G title. Never made it passed the Sweet 16
  • Fred Taylor - The gold standard of OSU coaches. Has the only national championship to our name and for that he will be #1 until Thad or another coach wins a title. Taylor's "metrics" are head and shoulders above Miller, Williams, and Ayers but Thad is even  THAT much farther ahead of Taylor, sans the title.

CONCLUSION: Thad is the greatest OSU basketball coach (to never win a title) and it isn't even close. The sustained level of success he has attained has never been achieved at OSU before. Fred Taylor is still the best though.

 

BLUE BLOOD / SURE SHOT HOFers / HIGHEST PAID COACHES IN NCAAM

I'm not going to run down every coach. What strikes me is the only coach on this list with less than 22 years of HC experience is one of Thad's former assistants. The average experience for these 6 coaches (all higher paid than Thad) is 26 years.

Thad averages more wins than the lot, but falls slightly behind in years per conference title and years per NCAA tourney bid. BUT, we're talking tenths and hundredths here, and he was banned for what would have most likely been a tourney bid in 2012 by no fault of his own.

CONCLUSION: Put Thad's name on the list. If Sean Miller looks at home there, so does Thad. The lack of titles for both is the glaring difference. Also, there isn't a coach in this category who is coming to Ohio State.

$3M COACHES - THAD'S "COMP SALES"

Thad makes $3.4m per year ($4m w/bonuses). A lot of fans say he is under performing. Here are the other coaches in the NCAA making $3m or more.

  • Jamie Dixon, TCU - Currently 17-14, will miss NCAA tournament
  • Tom Crean, IU - Currently 17-14, will miss NCAA tournament, may lose job
  • Kevin Ollie, UConn - Currently 14-16, will miss NCAA tournament

Thad has out performed each of these coaches by a wide margin with the exceptions of Dixon besting him in tournament appearances (damn you, 2012) and Kevin Ollie taking credit for Jim Calhoun's last natty

Thad doesn't look so bad compared to these guys

REPLACEMENTS

These two guys are supposedly the heirs to Thad's throne (h/t BGSU) One a former assistant, the other an experienced coach with success at the mid-major level. If Thad would leave, neither would be a bad option at all, but are either one of them truly an upgrade?

Miller would only come if Thad was on board and I have reservations if Gregg Marshall truly wants to leave the mid-major scene.

CONCLUSION TL;DR:

All season I've heard, "this is the lowest point in program history", "only way to go is up", "this isn't the tOSU standard". Look at the numbers above, Thad shatters the OSU standard. He is by far the best coach we've had since the 1960 and 1961 seasons.

His name belongs with the elites. Thad Matta is an elite college basketball coach. I wish the fans would show him and the program support, rather than disgust. Thad referenced all year how people hate him. He has to thank fans for showing up to the Schott for games.

Enjoy what we are experiencing. It's a down stretch currently, but it is clearly the most sustained run of success the program has had. Be careful what you wish for, we might just find ourselves in a 30 year slump when Thad leaves.

This is a forum post from a site member. It does not represent the views of Eleven Warriors unless otherwise noted.

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