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Ohio State Basketball Forum

Ohio State men's and women's basketball discussion.

Taking in the numbers

kramalanj's picture
March 12, 2014 at 12:07pm

Just a little information I thought was interesting, as the Buckeye basketball team having not yet scored a basket, has In my humble opinion scored something already going into tourney time.

We all know of the bad losses no one expected for this team, Penn State - 2, Minnesota - 1, Indiana - 1, and Nebraska - 1. We go on the road and beat a good Wisconsin team, a decent Iowa bunch, we split with Michigan St., and go 0 - 1 against the regular season champion TTUN ( Ugh, at home ). So we keep the wins, and win those games lost, we are 15 - 3, and co-champions. I know, I know, if a frog had wings.

 Also, the truth is Nebraska (11-7 ) DID win more conference games than we ( 10 - 8 ) did, and if we play switch this loss with that win it still comes out the same.

 Something else that caught my attention as points this team may off the court is this.

First, OSU RPI is #24, and their SOS #15 overall, in a conference whose combined RPI, is #2 in the country ( The Big 12 was #1 ). They BEAT a team, Wisconsin, with the #6 RPI and #2 SOS, and lost to TTUN #9 RPI AND #9 SOS. Michigan State was right behind OSU, with Iowa and Nebraska, both in the top 50 of RPI & SOS. http://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2014/index.

Against the top 4 teams in the conference ( OSU was 5th ) we were a combined 3 - 3, throw in Iowa who finished 6th, in the conference we are  4 - 4, this from an often offensively challenged team ( Again I know, I know Penn State ? ).

With the BIG Tourney starting tomorrow, I find positive points as OSU is #1 in win percentage .710  ( 22 - 9 ) with 4 first and 4 seconds, and Thad Matta #1 in coaches win percentage .792 ( 19 - 5 ). ( Look for Quick Hits, click on BIG Ten Tournament Records @ http://www.bigten.org/sports/m-baskbl/big10-m-baskbl-body.html

In the NCAA last year we played three teams who this year are ranked as #16 Iowa State, #4 Arizona, and  #2 Wichita State. A top group with two of them rated in the top 5 this year, of whom 2 of 3 we defeated, losing only to Wichita State after erasing a large deficit, while falling short in a valiant 2nd half effort. I forget how many shots we missed in the first half of that game, but there were a few games last year similar to games, or moments suffered through this year. It's just we dealt with way more of those moments this year.

To me last year was a feeling of "hope we do not lose the offensive identity starting with Deshaun Thomas (sp) on down"  while this year was " hope we establish an offensive identity with anyone".

 So as a great defensive basketball team, that is often offensively challenged  enters tournament time, I think this might be said of them. They can NOW play with anyone, anywhere, anytime, and with a slight up-tick in offense ( especially late game free throws ) they WILL win.

So here goes my predictions for the BIG, at worst we play TTUN, at best we play for the championship.The NCAA, I roll the dice and feel sweet 16.

Yes, I am feeling some big Buckeye love today.

( If necessary tomorrow, I like my crow well done )


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KBonay's picture

Here are the numbers that concern me...and the 'trend' has been downward:
FT's against MSU 19-31(61%) 
FT's against IU 14-23 (60%)  and an atrocious 0-11 (uh, 0.0%) from 3
FT's against PSU 18-27 (66%) and 5-17 from 3-land

This team can not make a run without scoring.  And leaving points at the charity stripe will doom them against tourney teams.  And note, a lot f those misses are on the front end of the one & one.  So there is no telling just how many points are left on the table in each of those games.

Squirrel Master's picture

I will fall over laughing if Nebrasketball makes the tourney, as bad as their program has been in years past, before Northwestern does as a B1G program.

I saw a UFO once.......it told me to have a goodyear!

OldColumbusTown's picture

In response to the original post, as well as Kbonay:

I've said all along (as a defendor of this team, yet with a realistic viewpoint) this team is right there.  They have everything they need to make a run here in March.  They have, in fact, lost 8 games yet led late in the second half in almost all (I would need to check for the exact number).

It all comes down to the little things with this team.  They have 2-3 stretches per game where they will go 4-5 minutes without a FG.  They have trouble shooting the 3-ball consistently.  They have stretches where they turn the ball over needlessly on consecutive possessions.  They give up too many offensive rebounds at times.  They also have had trouble of late making FT's consistently.

YET, they've been in every single game with a chance to win in the end.  This team has a formula for success.  I've outlined it over and over again, and it is something we usually see for the majority of each game.  It is just those short stretches where they go crazy/insane that ends up hurting them in the end.  That formula?  Don't take risks offensively - meaning, take care of the ball, don't try to do too much, take what the defense gives you (except for quick three's), and don't rely on the 3.  DO NOT play hero ball.  Defensively, do what you do and box your man out when the shot is in the air.

When this team focuses on its strengths, and doing those things well, they are extremely tough to beat.  They manufacture easy offense out of their defense, and that always seems to develop momentum for this team on the offensive side of the court.  They have to scratch and claw for everything they get, but this has to be a lunch pail-mentality type of team if they want to succeed.

KBonay's picture

Well, it was a win.  But against lowly Purdue.  And to dissect the numbers I have outlined several times in several threads, they can not shoot the ball and it is not getting better.  This team today went 1-14 from 3-point land.  That's 7%.  And to counter your point above about smart basketball, they took and missed all their 3's (4 attempts) from the 6 minute mark to end of game once they had a lead.  Including a three attempt by Sam at the .33 second mark up just a point.  Now, is that bad coaching?  Or bad decisions on the court? Knowing they can't hit those, why in the world are they throwing them up? (They are 10-52 from 3 in last 4 games)
And to make matter worse, they again struggled at the free throw line.  16-25.  That is 64%, just above the %'s they have hit the last few games.  That's not a coincidence, that is a TREND.  The last 4 games combined, they have missed 40 free throws.  And I have no idea how many were the front end of a one & one. And there is no one BUT the player to blame on those.  Trust me...any team that shoots in the (low) 60's for a free throw % won't win too many games.  That stat is almost laughable.  Shaq shot 52% as a player.  We are barley doing better AS A TEAM