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Ohio State B1G Tourney scenarios

I_Run_The_Dave's picture
March 6, 2014 at 9:32am

Games remaining:

Ohio State:  Vs MSU
Nebraska:    Vs Wisconsin
Iowa:        @  MSU, Vs Illinois


Ohio State wins, Nebraska wins, Iowa loses to MSU, beats Illinois
Nebraska seeded 4th.
Wisconsin tied with MSU, Ohio State tied with Iowa.
Tiebreaker:  Wisconsin won only head to head with MSU
Wisconsin seeded 2nd, MSU seeded 3rd.
Tiebreaker:  Ohio State split head to head with Iowa (push)
             Ohio State 0-1 vs. UM, Iowa 1-1 vs. UM
Iowa seeded 5th, Ohio State seeded 6th.

Ohio State wins, Nebraska wins, Iowa loses both.
Nebraska seeded 4th, Ohio State seeded 5th, Iowa seeded 6th.
MSU tied with Wisconsin.
Tiebreaker:  Wisconsin won only head to head with MSU
Wisconsin seeded 2nd, MSU seeded 3rd.

Ohio State wins, Nebraska loses, Iowa loses to MSU, beats Illinois
Wisconsin seeded 2nd, MSU seeded 3rd.
Ohio State, Nebraska, Iowa all tie.
Tiebreaker:  Ohio State would be 2-2 vs. Iowa/Nebraska - seeded 5th
             Iowa would be 2-1 vs. Ohio State/Nebraska - seeded 4th
             Nebraska would be 1-2 vs. Ohio State/Iowa - seeded 6th

Ohio State wins, Nebraska loses, Iowa loses both
Wisconsin seeded 2nd, MSU seeded 3rd, Iowa seeded 6th
Ohio State tied with Nebraska.
Tiebreaker:  Ohio State split head to head with Nebraska (push)
             Ohio State 0-1 vs. UM, Nebraska 0-2 vs. UM
Ohio State seeded 4th, Nebraska seeded 5th.

All other scenarios involve Ohio State losing to MSU and would result in Ohio State being seeded 6th, even if Iowa loses both (Iowa wins tiebreaker based on 1-1 record vs. UM).

Ohio State ending up as a 6th seed is concerning, as PSU is likely to end up as the 11.  For obvious reasons, I don't want to end up playing them in the B1G tournament.  If we end up as the 5th seed, the only way PSU is the 12 seed is if Purdue beats NW, and PSU loses to both NW and Minnesota.  There are scenarios where if PSU wins out, they rise higher than the 10 seed (Indiana and Minnesota come into play at that point) so the bottom 6 seeds are really a toss up at this point, but 11 is the most likely seed for PSU.  If we end up as the 5 or even the 4, we won't have to play PSU, which is good for my peace of mind.

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Patriot4098's picture

Good info isn't always good news... ugh.

"Evil shenanigans!"     - Mac

+1 HS
Killer nuts's picture

So in summary, we win and Iowa and Nebraska lose out is our only shot at the 4 seed. 

Second, I disagree with you, I'd love to play penn state in the tourney and get some revenge. It's a sad day when a Buckeye is afraid to match up with penn state in basketball 

+3 HS
I_Run_The_Dave's picture

When we lost the revenge game in Happy Valley, it broke my spirit.  I don't think I could bear the agony of losing a third time.  Now, I do think we'd beat them if we played in the tournament...  but beating them there isn't going to shut them up, and losing, well, I don't like to think of the consequences given their fan base.  Do you remember when we lost the NCAA title game in both sports to Florida?  The mocking was palpable.  Multiply that by 100 and you get what PSU would do if they beat us a third time.  So yeah, I really want to avoid the match-up.  And yes, it is a sad day that it has come to this this season...

+2 HS
bukyze's picture

In summary, it really doesn't matter, 'cause we aren't going that far in the B1G tournament, no matter who we play.

-3 HS
I_Run_The_Dave's picture

I disagree.

Assuming we get past the first round, as a 6 seed we match up with MSU in most scenarios as the three, and since they seem to be limping into the tournament, that sets up a game against Wisconsin as the 2, and we beat them at their place.  They'll bring their A game but they're certainly beatable again.  Then we're in the finals against the winner of UM and Iowa/Nebraska and if UM gets upset, we have a good chance of winning it all.

If we are the 5 seed and make it past the first round, we'd match up against either Iowa or Nebraska.  Iowa would be a tough game but Nebraska, I think we'd handle.  Either way I like our chances here.  That leads into a game against UM in the semifinals, and that could be ugly, but it's scUM, so we'll show up.  

If we are the 4 seed, that means Nebraska was the 5 seed and again, I like our chances beating them when it counts.  This also leads into a game against UM in the semifinal.

Being a 6 seed is our easiest path to the finals, but as I already said, we have to go through the worst fan base in America to get there, and it's really a scenario I'd like to avoid.  Regardless, we have a decent shot at a good run.

+1 HS
ab1993's picture

That implies that they play consistently (well) for THREE games in a row.

I_Run_The_Dave's picture

Wouldn't be the first time we strung 3 good games together though...  @Wisconsin, @Iowa, vs. Purdue was a good stretch.  Of course that was immediately after losing to PSU at home, and immediately before losing to scUM at home.  So maybe the odds are against it happening again, but we'll see how things fall.

BucksfanXC's picture

Great post. Excellent effort into relevant information. Thanks for posting.

“Any time you give a man something he doesn't earn, you cheapen him. Our kids earn what they get, and that includes respect.”  - Woody

+1 HS
ShowThemOhiosHere's picture

There is no way in hell we would lose to PSU 3 times in a season, bring them on.  Get a little sour taste out.  If you think about it, the only other teams that OSU hasn't beaten this season are TTUN and MSU, and MSU could potentially fall off that list Sunday.  Wouldn't be surprised to see OSU make a little noise - they've always done pretty well in the B1G tourney under Thad.

Class of 2010.

+1 HS
mrspray's picture

I agree - I think the players have a little bit of a chip on their shoulders about the PSU losses. PSU players might be a little distracted coming in to that matchup too. If I were a PSU fan, I wouldn't want to face OSU on a neutral court.

In case you're curious, it's Mr. Spray

+1 HS
I_Run_The_Dave's picture

I tend to agree about not losing to them for a third time.  Winning against the same team 3 times, regardless of how good or bad either team is, is almost unprecedented.  That being said, my only real hope is that scUM doesn't win it, and if we are the ones to knock them off, bonus points.  I'm going to halfway cheer for Nebraska, except when/if they are playing us, just for the sake of hilarity.

Go1Bucks's picture

Thanks for doing the scenario work.  I was working on it, but connections on this Greyhound were giving me headache and fits.  

As much as I would like to be the fourth seed, it is most likely OSU ends up 5th or 6th, but I agree that we could do potentially well in the B1G Tourney, were it seems the only place our team every really coalesces.  And who knows, in a season where our expectations are lower than normal, we may find a way to surprise and get tough when it counts.

Go Bucks!

+1 HS
TMac's picture

I'd welcome the opportunity to right the wrong that is losing twice to PSU in Basketball!!

If they can't do that, well, then WTF difference does it make?!?!

ONE Not Done!

Josh P's picture

I legitimately won't be surprised if we're playing a game on Sunday.  I also won't be surprised if we lose our first game.  

daveyt11's picture

I think the most difficult Friday match-up would be if we are 5 and Iowa is 4. OSU on a back to back chasing their fast break style could be a problem. All others are doable in my opinion...Of course we got to get to Friday

I_Run_The_Dave's picture

Agreed, and is probably the most likely to happen, too, if we can beat MSU.  This would mean Wisconsin beats Nebraska (probably) and that we beat MSU (50-50), and that Iowa doesn't drop both of their games (almost for sure).  Then we end up drawing Purdue for the Thursday game which sets this match-up.  If we win, we probably end up against UM, although any of the bottom 6 (besides Purdue) could end up being the 8 or 9, and I wouldn't put it past scUM to drop that game.  So really, the entire tournament is a giant crapshoot.

mrspray's picture

Well, Iowa lost. That's one down...

In case you're curious, it's Mr. Spray

Seattle Linga's picture

Should be fun regardless - looking forward to the run

I_Run_The_Dave's picture

I updated the OP given the fact that Iowa lost and deleted the scenarios where Iowa had beaten MSU.

Here is what we need now:

  1. Iowa or Nebraska losing gives us a 5 seed, both losing gives us a 4.
  2. Beat MSU on Sunday, or else we still get the 6.
BucksfanXC's picture

Here's a cool site I found to calculate out scenarios: http://bball.notnothing.net/big10.php?sport=mbb

“Any time you give a man something he doesn't earn, you cheapen him. Our kids earn what they get, and that includes respect.”  - Woody

I_Run_The_Dave's picture

I knew Iowa could have a derp moment and lose to Illinois, but I honestly didn't expect it to actually happen. Hoping for a win this afternoon (got tickets from a friend yesterday!) and for Nebrasketball to do what they do...