Everyone seemed to like my probability blog post last week, so I figured I'd post an updated one. Maybe I'll make it a weekly thing and call it Probability watch, or something like that. I don't include Louisville, because I don't think an undefeated Louisville passes Ohio State, so they are irrelevant. UCLA, Missouri, and Miami could become relevant, and admittedly would have some impact on the probabilities for this week, but out of laziness I'm not including them for now. In the coming weeks I will include them if it becomes more pertinent. As always I'll include my chart, so you can see what numbers I used.
Again, although my process is objective, the probabilities I input for each individual game are subjective, making my end results subjective, but I try to be as fair as I can.
Alabama- 33.3% chance of going undefeated.
Oregon- 17.9% chance
Clemson- 13.2% chance
Florida State- 9.9% chance
IF you take an undefeated Ohio State as a given (which you shouldn't, but for arguments sake) then here are my results:
There is a 42.8% chance that all of them lose, and Ohio State finishes number one.
If you believe the SEC automatically gets 1 team in, there is a 64.1% chance that Oregon, Clemson, and FSU all lose a game.
If you want to know the odds of 3 out of 4 losing a game, I'm sorry but you'll have to wait haha. I forget how to calculate that, as it's been a few years, but have E-mailed my old probability prof to find out how to calculate it. Those odds should be greater than 64.1%.
If you're curious, I give the bucks a 35% chance of winning out right now.
Here's my numbers.