A few weeks back we were led to believe the B1G would add seating for more at its roundtable. And then...silence.
I can accept what's plausible: that, it's winter and this means conference hoops tournaments and "March Madness." Expansion is the last thing the B1G wants upstaging one of its best seasons of hoops, ever.
But, amid the prospect of continued court action of another kind - involving challenges to the ACC's exit fee - is it possible those still members of this tottering conference are challenging Notre Dame to save it, by forsaking its cherished independence?
If not, shouldn't they? Notre Dame has that kind of power.
I don't think that ND would risk forsaking its cherished "independence" by chaining itself to a possibly sinking ACC. That said, they might help shore the conference up--but I just can't see a school so obsessed with preserving its archaic status would willingly give that up to help a conference it just quasi-joined. ND will eventually have to join a conference, but I don't think they're prepared to admit that, especially when the conference doesn't offer anything as lucrative they're currently enjoying.
ND's best conference match, athletically, geographically, and academically, has always been the Big Ten. Not to mention the fact that we can offer some serious coin to them, and the mutually beneficial status that the Big Ten would provide the BTN. I think that Delany's moves have largely been to force ND's hand--the only question is if they'll keep fighting it to the point where it comes back to haunt them. ND's trying to dictate its conference affiliation on its own terms, while Delany is doing them same with regards to them--this is what happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object.
I'm not so sure the "come back to haunt them" scenario isn't already here... If Delaney picks up the four ACC teams I suspect he will, what additional benefit does Notre Dame really bring to the table? I think the law of diminishing returns has kicked in, to where the B1G is big enough now that it no longer needs the Fighting Friars to rule the world.
I dunno, I think that as long as their brand stays marketable (which, admittedly, isn't a sure shot--even with Kelly's stellar 2012 season), they'll always be worth admission. Especially for a Machiavellian businessman like Delany, Notre Dame's national brand could prove to be the impetus to take the BTN national. If any conference has the infrastructure in place to go national, it's the Big Ten.
Hodge, these last two posts might have been the best I have ever read from you. That, or I just loved your train of thought. Either way, Bravo!
absolutely spot on Hodge - ND is the lynchpin to take BTN national. this ACC business is just a means to the end of weakening the conference to the point of ND caving to the B1G. it helps that ND is fantastic academically and athletically, but those are absolutely secondary to the national brand.
the kids are playing their tail off, and the coaches are screwing it up! - JLS
if the domers join that would give them 4 national brands and maybe 5 if Nebraska ever gets their act together
Andy,
I have seen the light when it comes to Notre Dame. If 20 years of irrelevance has done little to stop them from being considered one of the most popular teams in the US, sadly, I am not sure what it will take for them to fall from grace. If they are willing, you take them.
"Because the rules won't let you go for three." - Woody Hayes
THE Ohio State University
Andy:
Do we "need" them, no, but would they help us continue to dominate the SEC in revenue, yes. I am a firm believer that we are in an arms race with the SEC and that ND would help position us to win.
Given this projection of the nation's largest fan bases by team from the NYT's Nate Silver, I'm still not sold on the necessity of ND to the B1G:
While ND is the fourth-largest in the country, the top three are current B1G members who outpace the four SEC schools in the Top 10 by roughly the same number of fans as ND claims in the model. What that tells me is that ND is highly attractive, yes, but not worth cowtowing to for any reason. Schools like Ohio State and M*ch*g*n already have national appeal, in other words.
Re: the arms race, I think you're half right... I think Slive and Delaney are more comrades in arms, though, than fighting to the death. They are sides of the same coin, and what is good for one is probably good for the other - they will not try to gut one another to take a given school in the expansion race, in other words, but Delaney will take UNC because it's a better fit for the B1G, and Slive will take NC State because it's a better fit for the SEC (and that's just one example).
The next iteration of the expansion cycle will create a number of logical SEC-B1G rivalries that the media machine can hype ad infinitum: UNC vs. NC State; Georgia vs. Georgia Tech; Florida vs. Florida State... Many of these non-conference rivalries already exist, but will take on an added dimension of profitability when they're SEC vs. Big Ten instead of SEC vs. ACC, which no one really cares about.
Andy,
That chart is a shining example of why ND's claim that they want to be independent because they don't want to become marginalized into being just another regional school, doesn't hold water with me. OSU, TTUN, and Penn State are all just "regional schools stuck in a conference" and it doesn't seem to be hurting us at all.
"Because the rules won't let you go for three." - Woody Hayes
THE Ohio State University
Right on: totally agree.
Other than geography, I really don't see Notre Dame as a B1G university. And I don't think ND sees themselves that way either. Don't get me wrong. Delany and the presidents would unanimously approve them.
Let's look at the attributes for the average B1G university.
B1G - Large, public, land-grant institutions. Research oriented. Less stringent academic acceptance rates. Proud of their Midwestern backgrounds.
ND - Small, private, religious. Undergraduate focus. Minimal research. Very tough academic acceptance rates. Sees itself as an east coast school that's located in northern Indiana. I think if you gave ND the power to relocate their campus to the east coast with everything else remaining equal, they'd do it in a heartbeat asnd never look back.
So what exactly makes them like us, other than you know, location? Their history with Sparty and Purdue? Because that's about it.
You are correct: Notre Dame does not "fit in" in the Big Ten - they would be a square peg in the proverbial round hole.
Andy, your articles are definitely the best around. You need a "The More You Know" jingle at the end of them.
Thanks, Riggins! "The More You Know" is cool, but I was always more of a G.I. Joe man, myself...
Oh, you know I'm reccing G.I. Joe.
Both of you are bastards. If not for you two I would have gotten to bed early and not felt like crap this morning instead of staying up creating a new G.I. JOE themed avatar. Plus I am thinking ahead to next years Halloween costume . . . hmmm. . . . a Buckeye Viper perhaps???
Ha ha! Cheers!
"Because the rules won't let you go for three." - Woody Hayes
THE Ohio State University
That. Is. Awesome.
LOVE the new avatar. Glad I could play some small role :)
Either does Northwestern, Notre Dame just fits though because of their location.
I discussed that in my analysis of ND - Northwestern gets a pass, though, because they were the one of the founding members (along with the University of Chicago... remember them?) of the conference. Notice we haven't added anyone else like them since...
That's a good point, I just don't see how this conference could not want ND regardless of the differences. Just from a talent perspective, it would be a huge get.
Detroitbuckeye brings up a good point that Northwestern is a private institution and yes so was the University of Chicago, both founding members. I don't think it is as simple as giving them a free pass because of their founding status. I think we can all agree that before the recent expansion emphasis on market share and revenue, regional and academic fit would have played a more important role in conference additions. Given this, what other private universities (or public schools for that matter) in the B1G's Midwestern footprint would have made as much sense as ND to add to the conference if the emphasized goals were regional fit, academics, and athletic competitiveness? I believe it is the answer to that question that mostly explains the lack of other private institutions in the B1G, because if these were your only measuring factors, ND would have to be at the top of your list, with not many equals, and the gap is probably large. In a world where market share and revenue are king, everything else becomes less important, and B1G expansion gains additional equally attractive options to ND. Even in this new world though, the continual allure of ND is hard to ignore.
Really good analysis, at the end of the day the there are only so many midwestern giant public land grant universities. At some point you have to include other kinds of universities as well, it also makes sense because of the built in rivalries with teams that are already in the big ten. As different as Notre Dame is than other big ten schools, Notre Dame is still much closer to the big ten mold than other schools that have been mentioned that have entirely different cultures like Florida state or North Carolina.
More like the fat fingered physician in a prostate exam.
Edit: sorry this was to be posted after the square peg round hole comment.
Fitzbuck
Toledo - Ohio's right armpit
"A troll by any other name is still a troll".
The lure for ND to go "all-in" with the ACC is twofold: 1.) the move solidifies its historical and traditional ties to the powerful cities on the eastern seaboard, permitting it to maintain its rivalries with BC, Navy, FSU and UM and an annual appearance in the region's football stadiums and 2.) ND's acceptance of full membership in the ACC makes it the big fish in a fertile and prized pond, while foregoing the rigors of regular season fisticuffs with its public-ivy neighbors, in the "brutal" B1G. Bottom line: if the forces of change mandate 4 super-conferences, ND's better bet for adding to its trophy collection, is to lord over the ACC.
I think ND's current "conference affiliation" arrangement with the ACC might have been its attempt at luring the likes of our Buckeyes, Michigan, Penn State, TX, USC and a few others into a league of distinguished independents, who would enjoy confrence affiliation, as well.
Whatever the case - I expect this expansion plot to thicken - the moment the nets are cut down, in Atlanta.
Since you brought up March Madness.....
Assuming ND beats ISU and OSU beats Iona, how about we play for it?
OSU wins, ND joins the B1G
ND wins, they can stay independent
Sorry Urban, Woody is still my favorite
It's possible, but I don't think it's likely. If ND was going to pull the trigger on full membership in a conference, it would almost certainly choose the B1G because of the sheer potential size and scope of such an alliance, meaning of course more dollars for the domers.
That said, the one trump card ND could play in such a hypothetical "Save the ACC" campaign is trying to forge a Texas-style stranglehold on the conference... Saying to the Tobacco Road schools, "I'll fix your problems in exchange for being the big man on campus 4-EVER," in other words, as Texas is within the Big 12.
I think the most obvious reason for the lull is that Delaney and the Presidents of UNC, Virginia, Georgia Tech and Florida State are waiting to see what the courts do with the exit fee case - the Plan B if that doesn't go according to plan is getting the right number of schools married to the right conference suitors to just bust the entire conference wide open, thereby negating the exit fees altogether.
Picture this: there are 12 schools in the ACC. Delaney and the B1G take four. If the conference bylaws require a two-thirds majority vote to either negate the exit fee or disband the conference (and I don't know the ACC bylaws, so I'm just hypothesizing), that means Delaney has to get Mike Slive to take at least Miami and NC State (or Duke, perhaps), or maybe even Virginia Tech.
Then the Americana conference (old Big East) picks up Boston College, Clemson and/or Duke, and voila, no more ACC, and no worries about an exit fee.
Always a great POV, AndyVance.
I expect some expansion surprises.
I think Delany and crew had to tend to Maryland and pulling them out of the ACC (re: subsidy) and the wrangling over the exit fee. Think once that's established, and the schools know what they'll be looking at, the pot will stir up again.
And ND will have to make some decisions as well.
"Success - it's what you do with what you got" - Woody Hayes
I have wondered if the "travel stipend" to be paid to Maryland will be used to cover an exit fee. Not sure if they were getting it all at once or over several years. However, if it is all at once, it could be inferred that the B1G has agreed to buy them out and get to the checkmate stage of expansion.
"Because the rules won't let you go for three." - Woody Hayes
THE Ohio State University
I think that is a plausible scenario also.
Especially when the Terps athletic department is in the red.....
They need a little more than snazzy uni sales.
"Success - it's what you do with what you got" - Woody Hayes
If you mean by "subsidy" the B1G's recently-announced commitment to help MD with travel expenditures, I ask - rhetorically: Truly...who is paying these millions? My answer: OSU and UM...the top earners.
Just like real life.
This stuff makes my head hurt.
Class of 2010.
ND is like the hot chick you always wanted, but she never gives you the time of day.
"There is a force that makes us all brothers, no one goes his way alone, all that we send into the life of others comes back into our own." -WWH