Maryland's Fan Base is Puny: slight or inferior in power, size, or importance

By zachofaltrades -04 January 2013
13 Comments
- Football

Since James Quick has been discussed ad nauseam for about 3 weeks, I started looking more closely at the NY Times post about the relative sizes of college football fan bases. Of course we all know that tOSU, at 3.1 million, has the largest fan base in these here United States of America. Many other fan bases in the BIG rank highly on the list as well. With the addition of TAMU and Mizzou to the SEC, they added schools with roughly 2 million and 1 million fans respectively. Surprisingly, Rutgers clocks in at just shy of one million fans. Couple that with the New York TV market and boom, we have a winner in the Scarlet Knights (but seriously, did we really need another team in the conference who's school colors include scarlet?). Then we get to Maryland and its approximately 475,000 fans. Explain this one Delany. Just what exactly were you thinking here? For reference, Northwestern, Duke, Iowa St, USF, and UCF all have larger followings. He should have pursued Pitt or Syracuse much harder (each have 300,000+ or more fans). Even UCONN football has more eye balls watching them every Saturday. I just don't get it. I was told this was about numbers. Sure, 475,000 more Maryland fans watching the BIG is great and all, but there were better options. Numbers don't lie.

buckatron32 on 4 Jan 2013 - 4:22pm #

It's not about how many people watch but how many televisions have access to the Big Ten Network. Adding Maryland adds large media markets, even if all the people in those markets don't necessarily watch.

Optimistic Buck... on 4 Jan 2013 - 4:27pm #

Exactly, to be more blunt, it's not the eyeballs watching that matters, it's the number of residences with TVs - doesn't even matter if those TVs are turned on as long as they pay for cable, they will be paying for the Big Ten Network.

zachofaltrades on 4 Jan 2013 - 4:31pm #

I feel like you made a point in favor of my argument in the second part of your last sentence. If people don't watch, what's the point of adding the market? Wouldn't they be better off targeting a school with 300-400,000 more fans? That's 300-400,000 more opportunies to get the BIG Network into their household.

Optimistic Buck... on 4 Jan 2013 - 4:57pm #

Think along these lines:

1. Where are most Maryland fans located? - Maryland including Baltimore and Washington, DC areas

2. How are these fans in these areas going to be able to watch their team? They will need to rely on national or local coverage or purchase cable and view the games via the Big Ten Network allowing more complete coverage

3. How is cable going to selectively give these fans access to the Big Ten Network? They won't and can't at this time, meaning that the cable company will have to pay to get the Big Ten Network programming or deal with the 475000 customers that want Maryland coverage. Cable won't likely pay just for the 475000 households (unless they try to make it part of the sports package for an extra $5/month, which won't work as we've already seen in other Big Ten markets), but rather they will pay for the Big Ten Network for all of its customers and likely make it a standard cable channel. So where we end up is the Big Ten Network getting added as a standard cable channel to this region and collecting a premium based on the number of cable subscribers in the area.

The flaw in your logic is that you're extrapolating number of fans to increased market and dollars, when in fact, you should looking at the number of televsions in this geographic areas and correlating this to increased market and dollars.

cplunk on 4 Jan 2013 - 4:40pm #

Yup, as the other posters have said, the number of people that watch is not relevant. The BTN gets paid per subscriber that have BTN. They get paid less if BTN is on a subscription tier (I live in the VA suburbs of DC and that's where it is now- on a sports tier package), and more per subscriber, a lot more, if BTN is on basic cable.

What will happen now is that Delaney will manuever to make sure BTN is on basic cable throughout the DC area in order to get the higher subscription rate. In order to do this, he has to apply pressure to the companies which offer cable in the area. The way he'll do that is to deny those cable companies programming that their current subscribers want, thereby causing those customers to complain and consider moving to things like Direct TV.

How can he deny? Well, he'll start by threatning to remove BTN from ANY package unless those companies put it on basic. For starters this brings in all Maryland fans of all sports, including much more watched basketball, because they will not be able to see any games without BTN other than those broadcast nationally (which is virutally none). Those customers will surely complain.

That, however, is not where the pressure will come from. There are huge, HUGE, numbers of Penn State, Ohio State, and Michigan fans in the DC area. What do you think happens when OSU, TSUN, and PSU fans find out they will not be able to see the majority of their team's games because their cable company won't put BTN on basic cable? That's right- pressure.

Delaney also has one other key pressure point- the BTN's ownership stake in the YES network. The YES network carries Yankees games. So Delaney can also deny Yankees games to the huge number of NY transplants in the DC area, and let them know to contact their cable company and complain if they want to watch their beloved Yankees.

In the end, Delaney will win and BTN will be on basic cable. This will mean that BTN will receive a much, much higher rate for everybody that has cable (since BTN will then be on all, or most, local cable providers) in the entire DC TV market area. This encompasses DC, MD, and VA.

As you can see, the number of Maryland fans is virtually irrelevant. The number of total fans of anything related to BTN- all Big Ten schools, and the Yankees- that are in the DC area is what is important for getting BTN on basic cable. The number of subscribers to cable, even if they never watch a single second of BTN, is then what is important for the BTN in terms of cash.

zachofaltrades on 4 Jan 2013 - 4:49pm #

Good explanation. I was under the impression that in order to get the BTN you would have to purchase the upgrade package (like I do in Orlando.) Getting it onto basic cable would be a different ball game. I suppose my argument would only hold weight if the BTN stayed on the premium package and never switched to basic cable, giving people a choice of whether or not to buy it.

cplunk on 4 Jan 2013 - 4:56pm #

True- even in the case of premium, there are games that can be played in terms of what package it is on.

Also, in your original post you mentioned Pitt. Pitt is of no use at all to the BTN in terms of money. It's actually almost money loser. The way the BTN contract is written, there is also increased money per subscriber in states that are contractually considered B1G footprint states. Ordinarily this is the state in which the school is located, but there were clauses that count the DC market as a footprint for Maryland and UVA (yet another reason MD is worth dollars) and certain other schools as the NYC market (Rutgers). That's a big reason those two particular schools were added.

Pitt is in a state that is already a footprint state, thanks to Penn State. That severely limits the amount of new money that Pitt could bring in. Despite Pitt being handicapped that way in terms of bringing in dollars, though, Pitt would still get a full cut of BTN money just like every other school. Maryland and Rutgers are worth a ton more than Pitt. A ton.

It took me awhile to understand this stuff. I grew up with dollars being all about ratings and advertising dollars. Those things still count, but in the new markets most contracts have tied the biggest money into subscriptions and packages. Viewers no longer matter as much.

There are, of course, exceptions and ways in which viewers still matter. Its all very messy.

zachofaltrades on 4 Jan 2013 - 5:42pm #

If not Pittsburgh, then how about Philly? I know PSU is already in Pennsylvania so it wouldn't activate any of this bonus money you are talking about with a new state added to the footprint, but Philly is the 4th largest TV market in the country. Are we looking at adding Temple in a few years?

cplunk on 4 Jan 2013 - 6:44pm #

Nah, same deal. It is not of value to add teams in states where the B1G already has teams. Thus, no Iowa State, no Pitt, no Temple, and (thanks to the special NY rules) likely no Syracuse. Notre Dame is an exception due to national appeal.

if the B1G expands further it'll be contiguous/near contiguous states (this has been stated many times), members of the prestigious AAU research group (this has also been stated many times), and states where B1G teams are not (excepting Notre Dame) but big television markets are.

that means your list is very short. It'll be teams from this list: Virginia, North Carolina, Duke, Georgia Tech, Kansas, Texas, Notre Dame. That's pretty much it. All those teams fit all the criteria. Not going to go into it here, but do not underestimate the statewide Kansas market and the non-DC Virginia markets. Virginia also allows for more pressure on DC cable providers.

Others that seem appealing-Oklahoma, Virginia Tech- just don't fit the AAU criteria. The school presidents are deadly serious about the AAU research dollars. No AAU, no B1G membership.

My money says if sixteen its Virginia and Georgia Tech. If 18 it's Virginia, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, and Notre Dame. If 20, add Kansas and Texas. The Big Twelve grant of rights is not nearly the ironclad protection against the Big Twelve losing teams that people think it is. Also, despite common opinion, UNC would split from Duke if the money is big enough. The bball rivalry can always be an out of conference yearly rivalry, but tens of millions of dollars are harder to find.

Optimistic Buck... on 4 Jan 2013 - 5:03pm #

The Big Ten Network is like that where you are at (and where I was in Richmond, VA) because the demand wasn't there. I think the Big Ten Network did the same thing when it first came out in Columbus. People in Columbus were outraged because they didn't get all of the game that they used to and the cable companies wanted an extra $5/month. Eventually, the cable company gave in to the loads of complaints in Columbus. The same thing will happen in Maryland if they try to make the Big Ten Network a premium channel. People will get less Maryland coverage than they are used to and those 475000 fans will throw a big enough fit that it will become part of the standard package and the Big Ten will get the big money.

zachofaltrades on 4 Jan 2013 - 5:03pm #

So I just went on the BTN web page and tried to find where the BTN is available on basic cable packages. You can search your area code, but not by state. Is the BTN available on basic cable in every Big Ten TV market?

Optimistic Buck... on 4 Jan 2013 - 5:15pm #

It's standard with DirectTV.

Squirrel Master on 4 Jan 2013 - 5:04pm #

I think it is all of what is said above plus the room for potential. With the large market of DC, the potential of a large market is there. If Maryland gets big, starts building a winning program, the viewers are there. With areas like syracuse and Uconn, not much more potential than what they are. Saturated to probably the max.

but it trully is more about the cable packages. They can even get in on some major brands that are east coast based like Verizon Fios (very much like AT&T Uverse).