Some info from the Boarding House on 247Sports that I thought you all might me interested in.
Dontre Wilson said he is firmly committed to Oregon, however, if Kelly were to leave for the NFL he would most likley open his recruitment back up. And when asks which schools he'd consider, there was only one. Ohio State.
I have a sneakingly suspicion that this is Alex's mystery flip.
i want him and thomas tyner.
Tyner is an absolute beast, but has said that Oregon St. or UCLA would be his next choices. He de-committed (for a day) and said he wanted to take visits to those two schools. The next day (presumably after Chip called him) Tyner re-affirmed to oregon. I could see Tyner opening up his recruitment again if/when Kelly bolts, but unfortunately don't see tOSU in the picture for him.
Thanks, Hayze. FWIW, all the papers in Oregon have stated that Kelly is gone. It's not a matter of if at this point, it's just a matter of where for him in the nfl. Sounds like Philly has the upper hand right now. As far as Wilson, this kid is an absolute stud. The kind of playmaker that fits our offense very well. Really hoping that Urban makes this happen.
Man what a statement that would be if Urban pulled in an electric, gamebreaking playmaker right out of Oregon's pocket! we all know Oregon has that one or two gamebreakers every year....man oh man! add that to our style of defense and a heisman qb and our running backs and tight ends and jalin marshall and our coaching staff!
"Get him a body bag, Yeah!"
This is where that scholarship reduction might hurt
If he will be playing WR, lets get him. If Oregon was pickin up for the offensive side, than he must be quick!
Pay It Forward!
He's not Quick....Quick is in Kentucky hahahaha (pun intended)
I've been biding my time on this one, not wanting to jinx it, but I really hope we get this dude to flip. Not sure if it is Alex's mystery flip or not, but he would be a great pick up to go with the playmakers we already have in this class.
I think Alex's mystery flip was a ship that sailed a long time ago. For some reason I got the impression that the flip was no longer a possibility. I was thinking it was Dawson or ever Heurerman. I'm not sure if he came out and said it or not, but I thought he indicated in a post that the flip wasn't going to happen.
If in fact Kelly does leave, Urbs will find a way to sign him.Too good an athlete to pass up or say nah,we're full!!
SCOTTC.
I think if D.Wilson becomes available Urban finds a way to make it happen, you have to think he is aware of the situation, and is already at work on a contingency plan should Kelly leave for the NFL.
Oh the coaches are definitely aware.
They've been in Texas multiple times since the end of the season to visit him.
This development is also a reason why we stopped going after David Williams, even though he wanted to visit.
Ok, so what your saying is this class has the chance to be downright sickening, with possibly an outside shot at #1 overall. Urban is building an empire. Nick Saban, and Alabama ... What cha gonna do when Urban Meyer, and these Ohio State Buckeyes run wild on you!!!
You have to think Chip Kelly knows that his pool is weakened by Urban's transitioning OSU into a spread option power. He's up in Oregon where the talent isn't plentiful, and he has to compete with USC for California guys, so he scouts a lot of talent nationally that see his system as the quintessential speed spread. He can't feel good about OSU taking some of that recognition away
Because Scout uses a precise formula to do their team rankings, I decided to add in who we're favorites to land at this point and see what our ranking would be.
Right now we're at 3748 points, are ranked number 5 and have a 3.89 average star rating.
Add in James Quick, Shelton Gibson,Trey Johnson, Chris Worley and Mike Mitchell and our class skyrockets up to 4829 points and a 3.96 average star rating. For comparison the highest ranked class right now, Michigan, has 4566 points and a 3.79 average star rating and they are 200 points clear of Texas A&M.
Then potentially adding in Dontre Wilson and Vonn Bell, our class has a staggering 5338 points and a average star rating of 4.00.
Now we probably won't get every single player listed because that would put our class at 26 and while it's expected that thre be more attrition, I don't think there will be that much. Also, othere teams will certainly add highly ranked players too.
But for comparison's sake, the top class last year, Texas's, had 5156 points while ours, ranked third, has 4599 points. In 2010, Florida State had the top ranked class with 4736 points and in 2010 it was Meyer's Florida class, 5384 points. Even Meyer's 2007 Florida class, which some people say is the best recruiting class ever assembled, had 5504 points. That just shows you what company this class might keep.
Are you any good at stats? I don't have the patience to redistribute the bell curve on 247 with those guys added, but that might be the best indicator of overall class quality.
Would the avg. star ranking give any indication as to the general location of the vertex of the Bell curve? I haven't done statistics in a long time?
Yeah since the distribution is normal, the average would be the peak of the curve
I'm good with stats, I'll do it and post when I'm done
if you think urban shows out with the '13 class, wait till you get a load of the '14 recruits!
"Get him a body bag, Yeah!"
Bucks certainly have a shot at Dontre, especially if Chip goes to the NFL as expected. Just not sure how there will be room for him if they land Mitchell, Johnson, Quick, Gibson, Worley, and Bell. I guess we shall see :)
Do you actually expect to land all of that group you just listed?
the chance is actually very realistic at this time...it would be the top six I guess at this point, although I think Quick and Bell are not done just yet...I can certainly see four in for sure and I think at least five...hope there's room for all and Wilson :)
Alex,
If this was the mystery flip, then it appears that the rationale you had for not disclosing the flip would no longer apply in this situation.
Wilson in place of Gibson would be my hope if we were to land the ones Alex just mentioned...
The way Gibson seems to be showing out against top competition at his all star practices I'd rather keep him and drop Worley probably.
we need linebackers/safeties, which is why Worley is vital...also dropping him would not leave a good taste in the Glenville staff's mouth
Well I guess I was assuming we would have Mitchell and Johnson as the new LB commits and possibly Bell as a new safety commit. Take that along with Thompson, Lee, Conley, Apple, and Burrows it just seemed like taking another playmaker would be better than another DB. I get the Glenville thing, but Urban didn't exactly jump all over McCray to get the Trotwood pipeline going and with Jones (and likely Lattimore) for next year it doesn't seem like leaving him out would be a big deal.
Obviously if Worley is a silent commit, that is a different story. I am just not privy to that type of info, so I was just playing the recruiting musical chairs game and Wilson would get a seat over Worley if Worley waits too long.
I've always thought that Wilson or Heuerman was the mystery flip so thanks for the info, maybe he's the guy...I think Kelly is good as gone as well.
Don't think we can take Wilson though if we (somehow) bring in Worley, Johnson, Mitchell, Gibson, Quick, and Bell. Then again, I'm not sure we will bring in all 6 of those guys. If we get any 4-5 of these 6-7, it'll be a great finish to an already awesome class.
EDIT: Alex beat me to it
Champions Bleed Scarlet & Gray
Plus 1 for the Guy Fawkes/Anonymous avatar
Just watched some Dontre Wilson tape. Wow! It is stupid how much faster he is than everyone else on the feild.
Regardless on who the final few commits are, this class is shaping up to be pretty darn good.
There will be room for Wilson.
I don't know about anyone else, but these kind of comments make me uncomfortable. If we are saying that "there will be room for Wilson", let's say what we really mean: there will be room for Wilson because we are going to oversign and would force someone out of their hard earned scholarship. There is a difference between anticipating transfers and being upfront with players about their playing time, ala Rod Smith, and going the fraudulent medical hardship/forcing transfer/cutting ways of the SEC. The staff will sign more players than currently available scholarships based on the former and there is nothing wrong with that. I don't want a staff that takes players based on the latter.
I don't think this is the case at all.
What Saban does is much different than what happened at Florida under Meyer and what's happening here.
There are still players in the program that for whatever reason (aren't up to the talent standards, don't fit the system, aren't willing to work) won't succeed. Those players will either with the encouragement of the staff, or on their own accord transfer out.
Another point. While it's always great to get a guy like Donovan Munger, do you really think the staff would have taken his commitment, with our current depth and the guys we already have committed on the DL, if there wasn't more attrition occuring?
I think we are speaking the same language here Hayze. What is going on at Alabama and what Urban did at Florida and is doing here aren't the same thing. That is the point. We are going to sign more players than we have scholarships available from seniors leaving, but there isn't anything wrong with that because there are players in the program that we know will transfer, and the staff will likely encourage that (ala Rod Smith) and have a good idea on who is leaving. All of that is perfectly fine and that is why going on your second point, I have full faith that the staff accepted Munger's commitment knowing that there would in fact be attrition.
The point I am addressing is the whole "we will make room". That implies we will oversign and then force someone out without knowing that there was going to be that attrition in the first place. THAT is the mentality of Saban. That is the mentality I am not comfortable with and that I have found more prevalent in these threads this year when just last year we decried the SEC for this very thing.
Ok fair enough.
I must have read through your comment too fast and missed some stuff.
Too much happening recruiting wise this week it's driving me giddy!
While I completely, 100% agree with your major point, I do have to disagree with your last question. I do think they would take his commitment regardless. I believe Urban has said multiple times that you can't have enough great guys a long the DL.
You cant say no to someone with as much talent and speed as Wilson. If he flips to us it might mean either someone in this class is getting left out or someone is leaving/transferring.
"if irony were made of strawberries, we' d all be drinking a lot of smoothies right now."
Hope we can land this guy, but not at the expense of our morals. Let's face it, we absolutely despise the SEC (especially one Nick Saban) for this exact same kind of process. I understand that coaches probably push players to transfer--which seems to be a mutually beneficial process; but I just can't abide by leaving some guys out or doing other sketchy "oversigning-esque" manouevers to get there.
Don't say "we" don't approve of this and try to speak for everyone. I am a huge believer in oversigning as long as it doesn't include taking away offers from current commits. Very very rarely does it, so I am ok with it. If someone is in the program for a couple years and have not improved and will never see the field, why shouldn't their scholarship be taken away? If you have a job and don't do very well, and the company found a replacement who could do your job better, why shouldn't they be allowed to do that? I actually started a forum about this awhile ago and a good number of people agreed.
Fair enough. My intent was not to speak for everyone, though I understand that my language indicated as such.
I can see your point, but I just have a hard time getting behind it. This mentality treats scholarships as a monetary value awarded to players for playing football. Essentially, this is what happens anyway. But call me old fashioned, I prefer to think of these kids as students first and athletes second, so pulling their scholarship for underperformance and revoking their ability to graduate and not honoring the commitment the kid made to the university in the first place seems shady. In the NFL you can cut guys because it's a professional league, but, as much as many on this board already believe it to be, college football is not professional, and canceling scholarships for poor performance is a little cruel.
Some recruits pan out, some don't, but blurring the lines of professional/amateur and starting to manage the roster artificially (rather than by normal attrition) just doesn't sit well with me. These kids made a commitment to OSU and OSU made a commitment to them, to provde them a free education. Like I said, call me old fashioned, I'm just all for keeping some semblance of integrity in college sports.
"It is a man's own mind, not his enemy or foe, that lures him to evil ways." - Buddha
Props to you for wanting integrity in college sports: I think 95%++ agree with you.
I do think that "keeping some semblance of integrity" is a misnomer though.
For those who are curious, I made a spreadsheet in excel with 247's bell curve formulas.
Our current composite score: 767.5955 (247 rounds to 767.60)
With Mitchell, Gibson, Worley, Quick, and Trey Johnson, that number jumps to: 775.458
775.458 would put us at 2nd in the rankings (Bama is at 779 and USC is 3rd at 772).
Now if we got those 5 plus Vonn Bell and Dontre Wilson, our composite total would be: 778.618, just behind Alabama.
The way the ranking works is basically this: the highest ranked player is worth 100% of his 247 composite ranking, 2nd is worth about 98.5%, 3rd is ~ 94.5%, 8th is about 50%, etc. Once you get to about the 18th commit, the players add virtually nothing to the overall score. For example Donovan Munger is our 19th best commit, he adds only .997 to the team ranking (which is 778.6). In reality, from JT Barrett (our 13th best commit) is the last player who adds a double digit number to the score. The formula for the "multiplyer" value is on 247 sports website. Then the whole score is just a sum of each players' rating x the multiplyer for the numbered recruit that he is.
This is probably confusing, so here is the complete rundown for if we happened to get all 26 guys.
You can see how quickly the value of each subsequent recruit drops off, which is why our overall rank won't actually move that much. Teams are not rewarded in this formula for signing huge classes.
If you want me to try a different combination just ask. It won't take me long now that I have the excel spreadsheet formulas set up.
Thanks for doing all that work, really interesting stuff. I'm not sure I get the logic of it, though. If a team gets the top 10 recruits in the nation, the #10 recruit is somehow worth less than a team that only gets the #11 recruit? I know any formula will be flawed, but if it doesn't take position into account, why would it matter that other recruits are signed ahead of any particular one?
I'm not exactly sure of the logic either to be honest, I guess the idea is to give more value to a smaller class with better players than a larger class with lesser players. Theoretically, the best player in a team's class is more significant than the worst player in the class, and therefore should be weighted more heavily. If you just added the ratings up, 4 2 stars (Avg rating of 75) would be worth about the same as 3 5 stars (Avg rating of 99-100), which shouldn't be the case, hence why the best players are weighted more heavily.
I appreciate the work you did in putting this together. There is no way I could have done this, but I love to see info like this put in front of my eyes. It helps me see more clearly the awesomeness(is that even a word?) of this class.
We are already 2nd, USC just had a decommittment ;) haha.
Good work though!
Yes, as others have said, thanks for taking the time to do this. Very cool to see it broken down like this.
If I could upvote this, I would. Thanks for the explanation and work.
Does this change by much if you remove Johnny Townsend? (Kicker; outlier..)
Keep Calm and Ignore the Trolls.
I had a feeling it was him too as far as the mystery flip...just not sure Chip goes to the NFL (at least not yet;-)
"There's nothing that cleanses your soul like getting the hell kicked out of you."
"I love football. I think it is most wonderful game in world and I despise to lose."
Woody Hayes 1913 - 1987
Based on what Alex said regarding the mystery flip, it indeed, is not Wilson.
In fact, the flip isn't happening and the recruit in question will enroll at another school.
The guys off the top of my head that I think it could be are Malik Zaire, Mike Heuerman or Josh McNeil. I guess it could also be one of the linemen we were after (Pocic, Bivin, etc).
It'll be interseting to hear the story come singing day.
How do you know.....???? Alex hasn't told anyone...
"There's nothing that cleanses your soul like getting the hell kicked out of you."
"I love football. I think it is most wonderful game in world and I despise to lose."
Woody Hayes 1913 - 1987
He has said that the filip is very likely not happening and that he'll reveal after signing day who it was and why he thought he might flip.
Cool...guess we'll see who in a couple of weeks.
"There's nothing that cleanses your soul like getting the hell kicked out of you."
"I love football. I think it is most wonderful game in world and I despise to lose."
Woody Hayes 1913 - 1987
If Dunn had gotten the carries that Rod Smith did, I'm sure it was Dymonte. Whatever anyway... Before the outback bowl, there was a theory that Hoke was scUM's Tressel, I am now convinced that he is their Cooper... Big time recruiting, name brand coordinators, rivalry and Jan1st bowl game losers.
I'd love to agree, but he already has two rivaly/bowl wins, which is only three less than cooper in ten less years.
This is THE player that I am the most excited about as a playmaker for this class. I hope Chip bolts. Not that the other guys aren't good, but I loved this guys' highlight tape. With so many playmakers in this class, I feel very good about Meyer's chances of finding his guy for the next couple of years.
Agreed toothbuck. When i watch this kids tape, his speed just looks special. With Urban's need for speed, I hope we make room for him if he wants in!
Dontre Wilson's highlights for anyone interested.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sp1ENBRn49g&feature=youtube_gdata_player
Wilson > Quick. Yes, I understand Quick being a WR is more a position of "need" than RB is right now. But, I've seen both play...and Wilson is a better football player...at this point. I would love to have both or either. Quick is a great deep threat.
"You win with people." - Woody Hayes
not sure if I agree, but that's your opinion
This guy is a home run threat every time he touches. Currently, only Brax is that sort of threat. Granted Elliot, Marshall may be that type of athlete too (I dunno? Are they?). A guy like this could reduce Brax's carries in a way a bruiser like Hyde (or Dunn) could not. With a speedster like this, the Buckeye offense will be so much more potent. 50 points at least 5 times.
How likely is it now that Dontre will consider the Bucks now that Chip Kelly has been confirmed as the new Eagles head coach?
I was looking at his twitter account and just yesterday morning his handle on twitter was: @liltrey_Oregon2[]Lax.
After news of Kelly taking the job with Philadelphia broke, I have noticed that Dontre has since changed it back to @liltrey_2[]Lax
Can we read something into this?
“Right now, Michigan is not at the pinnacle of college football, and that’s all Urban Meyer cares about...He’s been there and knows what it takes to get there.”
That you can change your twitter handle;)
I do think this could be a very good thing for OSU in regards to Wilson. The timing of this does not help Oregon in trying to keep a class together. Chances are that they will elevate their OC to head coach, so the offense they run will probably be similar in style. But whenever there's change, guys tend to start looking elsewhere.
Yeah, Oregon is probably hearing some things from the NCAA. Could be some nasty sanctions a-comin!
I'm banking it now...Dontre Wilson will be in this class now that Kelly's going to Philly. DV if you must...but you'll see...
"There's nothing that cleanses your soul like getting the hell kicked out of you."
"I love football. I think it is most wonderful game in world and I despise to lose."
Woody Hayes 1913 - 1987
I hope you are right since we seem to be having a few issues with the WR's we thought were going to be in this class.
Fortune favors the bold. Upvote to you sir.
True. The girl in your avatar is quite bold, and I would say she is very fortunate.
FYI, Dontre said last week his recruiting would be back to square one if Kelly left Oregon.
Dontre === Buckeye
I wouldnt consider that to be a bold prediction since he named only Ohio State as a team he would consider if he were to open his recruitment back up. Heres hoping he makes you look like a genius though.
Just saw in the Buckeye News tweets that OSU has offered both Robinson twins that are committed to Oregon...class of 2013.
"It's just another case of there you are". ~ Doc (1918-2012)
Now that would change things up with our numbers, but would be an awesome flip!
QuadrupleZ
Thomas Tyner?
All labor that uplifts humanity has dignity and importance and should be undertaken with painstaking excellence. ~Martin Luther King, Jr.
http://footballrecruiting.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1456047
This could get interesting...and I'm getting excited;-)
"There's nothing that cleanses your soul like getting the hell kicked out of you."
"I love football. I think it is most wonderful game in world and I despise to lose."
Woody Hayes 1913 - 1987
Third gear and the dude is gone!
We sure could've used those extra 3 scholarships this year.