So I read the Bucknuts this morning about the rumor that Virginia and Georgia Tech are coming to the B1G.
My first reaction was complete distress because, despite several other scheduling options (one of which I've vehemently bandied about on 11W), I'm sure the B1G will simply set divisions. Worst of all, we'll be jammed in the east. I could easily see us stuck in a division with Georgia Tech, Virginia, Maryland, Rutgers, Penn State, and then two minors teams like Purdue and Indiana.
Crap, I thought, Ohio State just joined the ACC.
Then I realized something; One of the reasons often given for the decline of the B1G is that demographics simply mean recruiting isn't what it used to be in the midwest. So I looked up the top ten states for recruiting as far as quantity and quality of BCS signees. Actual data is scarce, but I was able to locate a Rivals ranking by state.
Right now Ohio State plays regularly in two of the top ten recruiting states (#5 Ohio and #6 Pennsylvania).
In the above divisional scenario we'd play regularly in FIVE of the top ten recruiting states (#4 Georgia, #5 Ohio, #6 Pennsylvania, #7 Virginia, and #10 New Jersey). Additionally, we'd be next door to, and probably seen more often on tv in, North Carolina (#9) and Florida (#2).
I know that we've always been able to snag a player or two from just about anywhere nationwide, and that Urban can recruit anywhere in or out of our footprint, but this would be a huge change in our recruiting. A huge change for the better. Heck, adding Georgia alone to our Ohio base and frequent forays into Pennsylvania is huge. Just think about the types of recruits Urban has been competing for in Georgia particularly, plus our occassional Virginia forays (Curtis Grant- step up, please and make me look good here).
Eventually there will be a post-Urban era, and I'd like our next coach to have the largest recruiting footprint possible.
I can easily see a scenario where playing in that type of division, with that recruiting base, pulls Ohio State to a recruiting level the midwest just simply won't be able to match.
As much as I hate the idea of losing some traditional opponents- Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Illinois- I think I'm willing to trade them for Rutgers, Maryland, Virginia, and Georgia Tech in exchange for the better recruiting.
Anyway, that's my early morning thoughts for whatever they 're worth. I'd be interested to hear your opinions.
http://footballrecruiting.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1239398
Oh, also I forgot to add this- I knew that fairly recently the conference with the most players in the NFL was in fact the ACC. Now I know NFL performance and college performance are very different things, but putting a large number of players into the league does indicate a high talent, or at least high potential, level overall.
I don't think it can be taken to mean too much, but it is an indicator. To me it is the other side of the recruiting star coin- recruiting ratings are the perceived potential of the players coming into college, number of players in the NFL gives an indication as to the perceived potential of the players coming out of the program.
So below is a link for the numbers. The SEC has surpassed the ACC since I last saw stats. Look at the ACC number, however, and the B1G number right next to it, and think about combining those two.
Now 76 of the 278 players do come from Florida State and Miami, so you have to take that into account, but still the possibilities for Ohio State's talent recruiting base look good.
http://www.holyturf.com/2011/04/nfl-players-conference-affiliation/
CPLUNK you make a good point. Nebraska has already changed their recruiting style and are recruiting from Ohio now as much as from Texas. There is the possibility that it could go the other way. That is unlikely due to the power of the OSU brand, our facilities, and staff. The reality of Nebraska's recruiting in Ohio is that it has hurt other B1G schools. Guys that would have gone to MSU or Purdue are now going to Nebraska. Guys that would have gone to OSU before Nebraska, well they are still coming.
There is also the posibility of some of these schools getting better once they join a better funded league. With cash to fund better facilities and better staff they should be able to attract more talent. That said several B1G schools have failed to upgrade despite the BTN funds. And for every school that upgrades after moving (ie Louisville) you have schools like Miami and Boston College who seem to have gotten worse after the move to the ACC.
Reorienting recruiting efforts to new areas is a dangerous proposition. Nebraska has always (from the early 1970's through 2010) had success recruiting in California and Texas, decades before the 4 Texas schools were acquired by the Big 8. It could be a costly, program-damaging policy shift if Nebraska allows these traditionally fruitful recruiting areas to dry up in an effort to refocus on it's new conference footprint. Making inroads such as these takes time. This is especially true if a school is refocusing recruiting efforts into an area where established programs (Ohio St, TTUN, Penn St, Michigan St) are firmly entrenched.
When a business has success in a market, it is rarely a good idea to leave that market in an effort to reorient. Rebranding and reorienting in order to break into new markets is expensive, difficult, and often largely speculative. Skyline Chili's only market was the southwest Ohio area for a long time. After a successful expansion into the Columbus market, it considered new potential markets. When Skyline expanded into Lima, it did not refocus attention away from its lucrative Columbus market. It maintained its successful base while expanding into a new market.
Now, if you tell me Pelini is attempting to parlay his Youngstown roots and new conference affiliation into an expanded recruiting base, that makes business sense. If, on the other hand, Nebraska believes it must refocus its recruiting efforts into traditional Big Ten footprint areas to be competitive, the results could be less than optimal. History (both distant and very recent) tells us Nebraska has the connections and can recruit hotbeds like California and Texas, even while being a member of a conference containing neither. Recruiting in Ohio is a bloodbath due to the disproportionate amount of talent compared to surrounding states. Everybody recruits Ohio hard and it is unlikely Nebraska will be able to sustain a national championship caliber (as is the standard for fans of Big Red) football program by fighting for Ohio recruits. There are significant barriers to entry in this market due to intense competition among existing rivals. (Classic Porter's 5 forces model)
I guess I was saying what you said in the first sentence of the third paragraph. The new recruiting field of Ohio for Nebraska. And going forward the expanded recruiting possibilities for OSU in wherever new states the B1G moves into. I'm especially thinking of Georgia if we add Georgia Tech and Maryland and New Jersey in 2014. We've already done well in Georgia. I can think of a handful of Buckeyes from Georgia. An New Jersey already has provided us with several great corners, from Tatum to Jenkins and hopefully through Woodard. And Maryland keeps popping up on the recruiting boards so all three are good expansion markets. Areas where we are already a player in.
I think you are dead on, provided OSU maintains successful connections in Florida, Pennsylvania, and Urban's recent success in the mid-atlantic. My concern is more aimed at Nebraska changing a successful strategy of recruiting California and Texas. As OSU goes, we will be able to get on the radar of about any recruit in the country. It would be great if the likes of Purdue, Wisconsin, and Michigan St could get a recruiting visit out of any potential additions.
Ga Tech would help in Ga, but Fl is a stretch. I think tOSU can pull talent from FL based on brand for sure. But nobody in FL cares about Tech. In fact, few ppl outside of the ATL care about tech. Its Dawg country and annoyingly so.
i like your argument for VA too. Just wish it was VA Tech. But plenty of ppl watch UVA too.
VT is actually really bad at recruiting Northern Virginia. Too much talent that goes un-offered.
"I like to kick Michigan's ass and chew bubble gum, and I'm all out of gum."
Did not expect Rutgers joining Big 10. Always thought it would be BC and Maryland. Can't go wrong with chowder and crab cakes
The potential loss of tradition is a bigger deal mostly for the older alumni, but even there, we've become accustomed to, for example, hardly ever playing Northwestern anymore. Before too long, people will have adjusted, the way my dad's generation adjusted to thinking of Michigan State as a rival.
If conferences are going to keep growing, and apparently they are, we need to be part of it, and we have to go where the people are.
The most "loud mouth, disrespect" poster on 11W.
These are some of the many reasons why B1G expansion is fantastic. Besides it isn't like we won't get used to playing these teams.
This is an interesting study. I'm curious as to the parameters used. For example, you say you counted BCS recruits. Did you include recruits from all 6 BCS conferences and Notre Dame? How many years worth of recruiting classes were covered? When you talk about BCS quality signees, do you only count recruits by state who signed with BCS schools, or were you counting high level recruits (ie: all 4-5 star recruits in a state per rivals.com)? Was data from recent BCS additions (Utah, TCU, Temple, etc) included only for years in which they were members, or do Utah's recruits from 2009 count for the Pac 12? In my opinion, rivals has the easiest search functionality of the recruiting sites (rivals, scout, 247, etc). Were you able to cross-check any of this data with other recruiting databases? (that could be a real pain)
I would be very interested in seeing the data you studied. Everything study I've done has the Maryland/DC area rated higher than New Jersey, and usually pretty close to North Carolina.
I went strictly by the ranking in the article that is linked- didn't have time for an actual statistical study of my own. I went with Rivals own ranking of the states. O'm unsure of the time frame they used.
i dont want GT or UV in our conference. of course, i didnt want rutgers or maryland either but they didnt ask me for my opinion. all this does is make the big ten even weaker
I appreciate this perspective, which is a pretty optimistic one. I think there are also a lot of negatives to this expansion, not the least of which is the rapidly declining on-field product. This last year, Michigan State, Iowa, Purdue, Penn State and other teams had a significant drop in attendance. I know that several schools were in turmoil in some fashion or another, but the decrease was substantial. I believe that fans are tired of mediocrity being accepted as the norm. Michigan State fans are tired of playing in 2nd-tier, essentially meaningless bowls. Purdue is bowl eligible, but their stadium was maybe 60% full their last few games. Why do people want to continue putting so much time and money into this sport when the results are always the same? Not every school is fortunate to have the tradition, passion and overall talent that Ohio State has. A lot of us view college football, and especially B1G football, with a very narrow lens. As long as Ohio State goes 12-0, we are satisfied, even if we beat 8 or 9 cupcakes to get there. I love it just as much as the next guy, but I don't think this is a viable format going forward.
I see the potential for increased TV sets and better recruiting, but overall, this expansion just appears to be little more than a money grab. Maybe it will ultimately benefit the bottom line of the conference, but I don't see much of a benefit from a fan's perspective. All the TV sets in the world don't mean squat if the fans ultimately stop watching. As Ohio State fans, we know we will always watch, no matter who we play. But will Northwestern fans care about a game against Maryland? Or Rutgers vs. Iowa? Nebraska-Georgia Tech? Virginia-Minnesota? Nobody would care about these games if they occurred on December 28th in the MicronPC Bowl, so why should they care about them when they happen on September 30th? I hope the end result of this expansion push is a positive one; I just don't see it that way right now.
We can't stop here; this is bat country...
I wouldn't mind playing in a potential Eastern Division, as long as the Michigan teams are with us in the East and the Indiana teams are placed in the West.
Real fans stay for Carmen.
Here, here. I would rather start playing a new team regularly than playing Indiana every year. I work in Indiana regularly and anytime I talk to people there (including IU alums) they all say the same thing, "We care about basketball." Cool, give me Rutgers who at least gives a hoot.
"Because the rules won't let you go for three." - Woody Hayes
THE Ohio State University
I'm also curious about the real impact of the AAU (Association of American Universities) on all of this. Most of the comments on this board seem to reflect the idea that the B1G just wants to look good from an academic standpoint. I have gone that route too. I told my buddy who is a Louisville alum that we'd never take Louisville because they were not smart enough. We are not only the richest conference but also the smartest (I also said we were the best looking but that I had no empirical evidence of this).
However, I think that is all about money as well. I just don't know how much. I would suspect that the enhanced membership in the CIC (The Committee on Institutional Cooperation) will enhance opportunities for the Universities to get Research Grants. I looked at their website and the thirteen current members generate about 8 billion in research dollars per year. If that could be increased through football expansion then maybe that is another optimistic way to look at expansion; especially if you live in a market with a B1G school. The increased grant revenue will only positively impact the local economy. Again this is only speculation that increasing membership will increase grant revenue share. However, I remember reading that is one of the reasons Missouri was so eager to join the B1G when Nebraska did. It could also me a means of taking a SEC team (Albeit unlikely). Research $ is Billions not the Millions they are talking about with media markets.
No doubt OSU's recruiting base HAS to expand into the south regularly if it plans to beat the SEC schools. The U.S. population is slowly migrating south because a lot of the growth in this country is there hence families moving there for work. Ohio will always be a good place to recruit, but I think the number of elite athletes in our state is dwindling and with all those other schools you mentioned recruiting in Ohio we no longer can worry about just TTUN to take our top talent away.
Meyer will do well in the south and whomever his successor is (hopefully more than a decade from now) will absolutely need to have a rapport in the south as well. I do like the addition of Maryland and Rutgers into the B1G as that will help some in recruiting in those areas. We can no longer rely solely on Ohio talent if we want to go for that crystal football.
"Sherman ran an option play right through the south" - Greatest.Civil.War.Analogy.Ever