Interesting thought.
http://m.espn.go.com/ncf/story?w=1cewv&storyId=8735671&i=cfb
I feel the most intriguing point would be the eventual culture change that it might create. Imagine a premium on wrs and rbs and the possibility of putting less emphasize on the stereotypical qb in the league. Could you imagine with that system in place taking a qb in the 3-7 round as big time playmaker. They would certainly be available. I feel the thing that could make it successful is ownership and management being behind a change in customs. All the sudden a qb in that system is valued like a rb. Management would have to fully embrace change and the way they draft as well. And they can't resort back to old ways of thinking what an NFL offense looks like.
I feel the fast pace would need tweaked due to the depth/numbers of the defense in the NFL. And ultimately I believe that at the end of the day a strong defense wins out. Offenses of any sort just need to be good enough to score like 21 to 28 on given nights and let the defense hold. So maybe the pace slows down to the way hurry up offenses in the NFL work nowadays.
Idk. It'll probably fall hard but i guess i just want the NFL to become as diverse offensively as college has become. It would just be intriguing if a team would fully embrace the change that would come along with a guy like Chip Kelly.
Thoughts?
Look at the defenses that have beaten Chip Kelly: Stanford, OSU, USC...these are all teams that dominate in the trenches. Unfortunately for Kelly's system, it's predicated upon being able to run and run often--a task that's becoming increasingly more difficult with the quality of athletes in today's NFL. Not to even begin to mention the fact that trying to establish a run game with your quarterback is a recipe for disaster in today's league--guys like RGIII and Mike Vick can attest to that punishment. The no huddle would work well, but he can't just be the one-trick pony that he's been at Oregon; until someone proves me otherwise, I just don't think a finesse-style run offense will succeed in the NFL. The game flows through the QB; I don't know how you can subject him to the kind of punishment his offense would demand while expecting him to last a season.
It doesn't mean I wouldn't like to see it, though.
Well USC gave up 35 points to Oregon. Even though they won, I wouldn't use them as an example.
"YOLO" = I'm about to do something extremely ignorant/stupid & I need an excuse to do it.
But what was Oregon's average? Wasn't it close to 50?
Oregon's O-line is much further away from NFL O-line than those teams are from NFL D-lines. From a schematic perspective there's no reason you can't run the plays that Oregon runs successfully in the NFL. You can't name 1 play that they run that hasn't been used at this point now that you have Washington doing what they are doing. Washington is implementing more of a complete game theoretic version of what Chip Kelly tries to do.
Case in point:
Judging that he can stay healthy, let's give the guy another year before we declare his offense as "for real". Don't get me wrong, I love it; but look at Cam Newton this season--it's not just a "sophomore slump", teams have keyed into his weaknesses. RGIII's carried the ball 112 times this season, as well as getting sacked 28 times (and that's not even counting QB knockdowns)--that's a lot of punishment over thirteen games.
Besides, for such a "revolutionary" offense, the 'Skins are barely above .500. You've got to make it succeed for it to really take hold. My money says that next year, they run a less run-heavy variation as RGIII improves.
that's for making me cringe..Everytime i see this damn thing...
"Winter is coming" - Urban Meyer
Why is it such a foregone conclusion that injury risk is higher in that offense? He has taken a couple rough hits, but the worst ones were avoidable and came on scrambles on passing plays rather than designed running plays. It is the same as Braxton, most of the worst hits a QB can take are sitting in the pocket and the worst hits a running QB takes are when he makes a bad decision holding the ball or gets hit late on the sideline. Aaron Rodgers is potentially susceptible to the same hits that Griffin is. So is Ben Roethlisberger perhaps to even a greater degree. It is a copout excuse that talking heads want to make because they feel comfortable with the NFL never innovating in scheme or play calling. Before it was that fast DE's could catch the QB from behind on read plays (which doesn't automatically make it less effective than a standard I-formation lead play even if it were true). Now it is the injury risk. I haven't seen statistics that indicate college dual threat QB's getting injured more than drop-back passing QB's. I wish pundits would do some research on that before completely dismissing the offensive scheme. Besides, RG3 probably has only run the ball on a read play half of his rushes and the other half are the typical scramble on a pass play that Aaron Rodgers does all the time.
Its not about the actual injuries its about the risk of injury. When you ask your QB to run so many more times a game than other QB's, you are guaranteed to see him take more hits than a 'drop back' passer-even ones behind the worst offensive lines in football (See Cutler, Jay and Rodgers, Aaron). By exposing your QB to additional hits makes things that much more risky. NFL defenses are going to get to the QB, exposing him further creates a risk GM's and Owners and coaches aren't comfortable with given the money and importance QB's have to their teams.
It is also incredibly short sighted to assume the NFL is 'never innovating'. Look at the changes in QB's. You use the term 'pocket passer' and there are only a few of those remaining in the NFL. Even guys who can stand back in the pocket are far superior athletes than their predecessors. Look at the size of wide outs, the new use and love affair with tight ends, the variations of the 3-4 and 4-3 systems, as well as the change in how running backs impact football games. That's ALL out of necessity thanks to innovation.
4-6 seconds from point A to point B and when you get to point B, be pissed off
Well it's a totally different offense and they have arguably the best QB in the league, but there are times the the patriots run a very up tempo no huddle offense. I don't believe they do this every possession, but they seem to have some success with it. Assuming that Kelly took a job in the nfl, he probably wouldn't inherit a top tier Qb, so who the heck knows how that offense would fare. I think that style would be a disaster, but it could be fun to watch as long as my Cleveland Browns don't try it!
You do make some valid points but I disagree... wait i reread your post, so I'll kinda agree. There is virtually no way a run first spread offense (in this case spread meaning no TE's and only 5/6 blockers) would work in the NFL. The level of speed on the DL almost makes it impossible despite my desire to see it. Kapernik ran a read last weekend that was out of this world in its effectiveness but i have to believe that it wont work unless a QB who can run. If someone could run a offense like TomBrady as well as run; who can actually pose a threat to a defense as a running threat the point is moot. Would love to here from more educated fans.
Your argument is a few years old. Carolina, Washington, SF have all run effective zone-read concepts as part of their base offense with sufficiently athletic QB's. It is obvious that the QB needs to be a more effective runner in the NFL than in college in order to run those schemes effectively. Just like the QB needs to be a more effective passer in the NFL than college to run a drop-back scheme. But you don't dismiss a tailback's potential for success in the NFL because of the front seven being faster. Schematically it is exactly the same to dismiss the QB running threat because of the front seven being faster. YPC on zone-read plays are likely higher than any other running play in the NFL besides maybe draws or traps (because of 3rd and long prevent defenses). Partly this is due to the NFL defenses not being as schematically prepared for this type of attack as the Nick Saban type college defenses. But mostly because it is a sound scheme when properly combined with complementary plays. You are just playing the numbers and forcing the defense to commit extra players to the box... NFL DC's are used to mixing up their safety coverages so when Washington sees a team drop 2 deep safeties on first down, they are probably going to run the ball and very possibly a read-option play.
I actually think Kelly would model his offense a lot like NE. NE studied tempo with Kelly and they are scoring 40 almost weekly now. I don't see him going with the same read option based run offense for the bulk of his offense. I think with SF, Wash and Car finding some success with it in spurts, Kelly will still use it in packages. Kelly is much more about tempo than read option. I think he will have an up tempo offense that would be shotgun based and very similar to what NE does. They work matchups underneath with option routes better than anyone in the NFL. They just obliterated Houston in this way.
I think Kelly would combine plays, run almost exclusively up tempo, and tailor his offensive schemes to his personnel. He might find a guy who can run the read option but he is not going to build his offense around it.
I think Chip would be crazy to go to the NFL. He's got it great right where he is (assuming no violations). Big $$, media darling status, Nike, etc.
But hasn't he kinda hit his plateau, though - kinda like Bert Bielema? He's been to Rose Bowls, won PAC-12 championships...he may want a national championship, but I don't see him getting that with Stanford proving they intend to remain a power.
He's had these amazing teams and always falls short - save for (I think) one Rose Bowl win? I just see it as hard for him to possibly have better teams than he's already had, and I just feel he's maxed out.
Just my opinion though. Agreed he's in a good spot, but NFL = bigger $.
Oh I know what you're saying, but I suppose it depends on whether he wants to coach adult men with even bigger egos than college kids -- I just think he's in such a good spot because he racks up the wins, and I think they've only been badly beaten once, by LSU, a team with an on-field competitive advantage with their oversigning -- their other losses they've been pretty competitive in I believe -- 3 points short of Auburn in the national title game -- that's better than we can say when we played Florida. If I were in his position, no way I'd leave as long as there aren't violations on the horizon that he may be trying to avoid.
I was talking to a friend the other day and he told me he had read that Chip Kelly was a great pro style offensive coach too. Chip Kelly isn't necessarily set on the spread offense.
I thought about things changing in the NFL with Newtson, RGIII, and Capernick. I think it will be a slow progression, but eventually it will happen.
This is true. I heard that when he was coaching New Hampshire in D 1AA, he adapted his offense and made changes to it and added wrinkles here and there blending different elements from pro-styles and spreads. What we see with Oregon is not the only thing the guy can do.
I think his offense would work in the NFL, but his defense would hate him, they would not have time to rest. In the NFL you can only dress about 20-22 Defensive players, they would wear out pretty fast.
I'd much rather have Urban's offense. It uses a lot of those principles but still has more of a play action pass built in. Kelly's is just read and dash. Plus I think a power read option will work in the NFL and I think Shanahan and RG3 have stumbled upon that. Utilize a power running game to do play action pass and option. From that pistol formation, a talented QB like RG3 can be very effective if the power running game is working well, and vice versa. Been watching a lot of Redskins games on TV lately. That offense is working and can continue if they get their zone blocking as good as it was in Denver. That offense made stars out of so-so running backs!
Shanahan is a little different in that I believe all of his running plays use zone blocking. This makes him a great candidate to incorporate the zone read plays into his offense, however.
Griffin is basically the ideal QB for Shanahan's traditional zone + Play action + bootleg offense since he can turn a play that would be an incomplete pass or a sack (i.e. everyone is covered on a play action pass) into a scramble for positive yards. They are currently only sprinkling in the zone read option game and they made the modification to run from the pistol set to give Griffin more freedom.
Both Kelly and Urban's offense could work in the NFL. You have to extrapolate that they would add wrinkles that they cannot add with the limited training camps and practice time that they get in college. But Kelly does a lot of the inside zone, outside zone, and counter off of that that Shanahan does, but he does more of the option off of that and a lot more screen passes. Urban has a very effective philosophy of constraining the defense and exploiting tendencies that is very similar to the successful approaches in the NFL. It is a lot more complicated than the ESPN talking heads have tried to make it over the years. The spread offense concepts are pervasive in the NFL now despite years of people saying it wouldn't work. It turns out if you wrong foot a fast DE, he has trouble making a tackle almost the same as wrong footing a slower DE, especially if the guy with the ball is an elite athlete as well. They now talk about RG3 as if he is "changing the game" when really the NFL is just picking up and incorporating somewhat stale ideas from college into their regimented systems.
If people don't think Kelly's Oregon offense will not work in the NFL because his qb's will get hurt then Urban's offense will be much worse.
Mariota ran the ball 98 times.
Miller ran the ball 227 times.
NGBUCK21...you come much closer to nailing it than Maisel did. The NFL QB is tremendously overvalued! It's crazy. It's no mistake that in Kelly's offense you can't even name every qb he's had. Every single time they've entered a season with a new qb people apply the conventional wisdom that the newbie will require some adjustment period. Mariota is a freshman and the offense didn't miss a beat. The NFL still doesn't yet understand that all you need are 3-4 similarly talented qb's with the same skill-sets.
Stanford showed the blueprint how to stop Kelly's offense. I would think NFL defensive coordinators would pick up on that. What I DO NOT think will fly well in the NFL is Kelly going for it on 4th down inside his own 30 all the time. That will stop after a few games where his team falls behind 21-0 midway through the first quarter because of failed conversions.
"Sherman ran an option play right through the south" - Greatest.Civil.War.Analogy.Ever