Still 4 weeks away from knowing, but things are starting to get sorted out. My only problem in my guesses, is which Bowl gets the first at-Large pick, due to their Tie-In team goning to the NC Game. Current ESPN BCS Projections have Bama vs Oregon in the 'Ship and Nebraska playing Oregon St in the Rose Bowl (not sure how I feel about this).
Due to the abscence of Quality Record Non BCS Conference teams, filling the 10 team Bowl roster will be a stretch. Here's what I've got:
BCS NC Game- Alabama vs Oregon
Rose Bowl- Nebraska vs Notre Dame (assuming the Rose gets the first pick of at larges)
Sugar Bowl- LSU/Georgia/Florida vs Louisville
Orange Bowl- Florida State vs Oklahoma
Fiesta Bowl- Kansas State vs Clemson
here's what the folks at ESPN have: http://espn.go.com/college-football/bowls
The bowl that loses the #1 team picks first, then the bowl that loses the #2 team, followed by the Fiesta, Sugar, and Orange.
I would predict:
NC game: Alabama vs Oregon
Rose: Stanford vs Nebraska (Stanford will probably be 2nd highest rated PAC12 team, so Rose will select them to replace Oregon)
Fiesta: Kansas St. vs LSU (If sugar chooses ND, they take 2nd highest SEC team with their at large selection. Otherwise, they would pick ND)
Sugar: Notre Dame vs Louisville (Assuming Notre Dame would be picked, instead of another SEC team, to replace Alabama and Louisville would be attractive if both remain undefeated)
Orange: Florida St. vs Oklahoma (Oklahoma would be most attractive eligible at large team left)
Stanford vs Oregon State will be a good matchup this weekend.
UCLA with games vs Stanford and Southern Cal left still may climb up into the mix.
Anyway we can have Notre Dame play the ACC Champ in a BCS game, with the loser forfieting any future eligibility to a New Years day or later Bowl Game?
Does anyone here think that the big ten has a chance at winning the rose bowl, it would be huge for the conference???
depends on the matchup-
Nebraska lost an early road game to UCLA. And UCLA looked more Physical
Wisconsin lost an early road game to Oregon State. Oregon State looked more Physical
Michigan lost early to Notre Dame. Deenard played like pooo.
No BIG10 team would touch Oregon.
Nebraska, IMO, is the conference's best hope, and I would say they have a shot vs Oregon State, Notre Dame, rematch with UCLA and maybe Stanford(though I have yet to watch Stanford play this year).
No way two ACC teams get in, not over a Big 12 or PAC 12.
Pay It Forward!
I hope the Big 10 wins the rose bowl long overdue
Hate to be so negative, but based on ESPN's projctions, the B1G would most likely go 1-5 in Bowls. Only win coming in Tax Slayer.
I sure hope that isn't the case because it will have a negative effect on how the Buckeyes might be ranked next year. The BSC isn't going to be kind to the B1G anytime soon....
I'm not very bullish on any of the B1G's matchups in the bowl games. I wouldn't be surprised if the went 0-fer
@craftforthesteal-
if Clemson beats South Carolina at season's end and finishes 11-1 and Florida State wins the ACC Champ, you would bet that 2 ACC teams get BCS Bids, IMO, over a potential 2 PAC12 teams that would consist of Oregon and 2 loss Oregon State, UCLA or Stanford. Of Course there is still alot of football left to be played, so who knows?
Oregon State could beat Oregon, and Oregon State and UCLA could play for the PAC12 Champ.
I feel that Oregon has the best shot at beating Alabama
@johnboair: If Oregon goes to the NC game, there will be 2 PAC12 teams. The Rose Bowl will replace Oregon with another PAC12 team. The Rose Bowl will always pick PAC12 vs B1G if they are able to.
@JOHNBLAIRGOBUCKS I was assuming that Oregon would not be available but for the big game. I fully think that a Michigan (probably won't happen because we will cream them) or a Nebraska (I would be far less confident as they kinda suck)would be capable of beating a USC or Stanford. A clemson I would feel good about as well, I think one of two things will happen this bowl season either we will get completely overwhelmed and humiliated or I think we might surprise some people if we take the Capital one and the Rose Bowl that would be huge.
@ AUSMOS
even over Notre Dame?
also
in 2003 they took Oklahoma over Iowa
in 2011 they took TCU over Stanford
I hear what your saying though, but one never knows.
Don't the normally like the tradition of PAC 12 vs big 10 though
Just depends on what happens with Oregon. If Oregon State ends up with 2 or 3 losses and Oregon goes to the title game I don't think the Rose bowl would go with the potential shit show of ratings Oregon State and Nebraska would draw. I think at that point they'd grab Notre Dame in a heartbeat.
@johnblair: They chose Oklahoma in 2003 because a big 10 team was not available. The Orange bowl chose Iowa before the Rose picked, so the B1G already had 2 teams selected, which is the max for any conference.
They chose TCU because every so many years (cant remember how often) the Rose is required to pick a team from a non-AQ conference.
The Rose will ALWAYS pick B1G vs PAC 12 if rules allow it...even over ND.
I really only care about the Rose Bowl, so I'll just focus on that. As others mentioned, the Pac-12 is a bit of a wild-card right now to make a pick. Don't sleep on UCLA. Everyone seems to think USC is going to waltz their way to the Pac-12 South title, but the Bruins are pretty equivalent. Yes, Oregon looks unstoppable, but it's college football and anything can happen if you don't play defense. They still have to play Stanford and Oregon State...each of whom only have 1 loss in conference play. I can't make a Pac-12 prediction on the Rose Bowl yet.
But yeah, if ND is eligible they'd definitely pick them. Definitely. No if's, and's or but's about it. The Rose Bowl will always go with the $. When they could have taken an eligible Cal team in 2004, they went with Texas instead.
I think you could probably pencil in Nebraska pretty vigorously, though. None of the eligible Leaders teams will be able to hang with them, and they have the tie-breaker against Michigan. Their biggest road block is Penn State this weekend.
If you look at the breakdown of # of teams/conferences getting into BCS bowls:
Notre Dame is 1
SEC will get 2 - Alabama, and who knows. That 2nd team could be a mess, so for this example I'll use Georgia.
Big 12 will get 2 - Kansas State and Oklahoma
Big 10 will get 1 - Nebraska
ACC will get 1 - Florida State
Big East will get 1 - Louisville
Pac 12 will get 2 - Oregon and Stanford or Oregon State
NC game: Alabama vs. Oregon
Sugar Bowl: Notre Dame vs Georgia
Rose Bowl: Nebraska vs Stanford/Oregon State
Fiesta Bowl: Kansas State vs Louisville
Orange Bowl: Florida State vs Oklahoma
That's assuming Sugar Bowl and Rose Bowl go with at larges that match their conference ties. Sugar will get first pick and take Notre Dame. Rose will likely go Big 10/Big 12 if they can. Oklahoma then only works in the Orange Bowl, as putting them in the Sugar and Fiesta both create rematches with teams that they lost to. Potentially they could flip Georgia and Louisville, but that's how I'd see it.
And that 2nd SEC team could be a mess to decide. I fear that if Georgia and Florida both win out, and then Georgia loses to Alabama in the SEC title game, Florida would go over Georgia, a la TSUN over MSU to the Sugar last year.
Class of 2010.
@bucksfan: The Rose was forced to take Texas that year because they finished #3 in the BCS, which guaranteed them an at large bid. The other at large automatically went to Utah because they were ranked high enough as a non-AQ to get get a guaranteed at large spot. If Cal was eligible, they would have chosen them over Texas because they will ALWAYS choose a B1G-PAC12 matchup if possible.
Indiana over Nebraska, calling it right now. Indianas first Rose Bowl in like 300 years.
Pay It Forward!
Why is Mark Dantonio so mad all the time? Indiana's most recent Rose Bowl was in the 60s. Sparty hasn't smelled roses since 1950.
/Duff'd It
Wow, you're right, AUSMOS, I totally muffed that one.
@Nova Buckeye the last time they went was 1988.
If, IF, Nebraska makes it to the Rose Bowl I hope they come ready to play. The Big Ten does not need three freakin Rose Bowl losses in a row. That would suck.
I know there's a game saturday, and my ass will be there.
The way I see it:
Rose Bowl: Nebraska (11-2) vs. Oklahoma (10-2)
Fiesta Bowl: Notre Dame (11-1) vs. Kansas State (12-0)
Sugar Bowl: Georgia (11-2) vs. Clemson (10-2)
Orange Bowl: Florida State (12-1) vs. Louisville (12-0)
BCS National Championship Game: Alabama (13-0) vs. Oregon (13-0)
I see both Oregon State and Stanford finishing with 3 losses, which is why I don't have either of them in the Rose Bowl. If you've watched either team, you'll understand why I have no confidence in them. Both will lose to Oregon, and I see Stanford beating OSU at home and losing to UCLA. I see the ACC once again getting an at-large bid that it doesn't deserve at all.