Expanding from a post I made in reference to our BCS ranking. My semi-educated thoughts below, would love to hear from you folks who also think about these sorts of things. Let me also first say that I'm loving the ride this team's taken us on this year, and this speculation in no way dimishes the fun I'm having watching this team fight and grow together right now.
IMO we are roughly the 10th best team in the country right now. I think it goes something like this:
- Alabama
- Oregon
- Kansas St.
- LSU
- Georgia
- Florida
- Notre Dame
- Florida St
- Clemson
- Ohio State
(South Carolina would be above us WITH Lattimore)
So I'm glad we aren't playing any of those top 6 teams in a bowl this year. I'd always love to play ND, no matter how good they are. And anyway, I don't think they'd score much on us, and I DO think we could run on them. I just think we match up well, even though they may beat some teams we wouldn't beat (i.e. Oklahoma, who I don't think we match up well with).
Next year, however, I fully expect Braxton to have improved his passing enough for us to be able to beat teams in the air when they're stacking the box against the run (at least I hope so!). If that's the case, and we get improved LB play from the young guys, then we're a top five team. If not, then we're about where we are right now: a very good, barely top 10 team with major flaws. Could still win the Big Ten, of course, but not likely beat the best SEC teams.
Losing Simon, Hankins (as I expect), Boren, Sabino and Williams will really hurt the D, as I don't expect Bennett, Adolphus Washington, Pittman, Schutt etc. or Cam Williams/Jamal Marcus/Josh Perry/Curtis Grant to be able to fully replace their production just yet (maybe in 2014).
If Brax stays healthy, and we can sign some more OL studs this year (Johnson and Dawson would be nice!) and develop the young guys we have, then I think our team in 2014 will be significantly better than 2013. The offense would/will be a juggernaut with Brax and his many weapons in the backfield and out wide, and the defense should be deep and coming into their own. That's when we steamroll and compete for another national championship.
(edited to remove CJ Barnett reference, who's only a Junior)
2014 with Braxton should be absolutaly sick if the DB's can play at a high level. LB, DL, Offense should all be as good or better as a whole, the question mark is DB's
Except for replacing 4/5 of the offensive line...
honestly, outside of Alabama, I wouldn't be nervous putting OSU against any other team this year. The defense has stepped up big lately, and has performed in big games. I think we have the talent to compete with and beat all the other teams.
Borrowed- I love Boren but I would be very nervous to match up our defense against Oregons offense as well with our deficits at LB.
I think 2014 is going to be our year, but don't count out 2013. Our offense should be absolutely sick with pretty much everyone coming back and the additions of Marshall and Elliot and who knows who else. We will lose something on defense, but there's a lot of talent on that side of the ball and it is young. Not sure what it will look like next year but it can't be much worse than some of the D we've seen thus far this year -- and we're still sitting pretty. In addition to that, our schedule next year is actually easier than this year -- with the exception of going to scUM. Nice argument to have.
@Borrowed
I'd be worried about any team in the top ten other than Clemson or Lousville.
The thing about next year is the defense will lose a ton on the defensive line, while in 2014 the offense will lose a ton on the offensive line. I am more confident in replacing the d-line based on the talent we see on the roster today, along with the incoming recruits.
The defensive back haul that OSU is bringing in next year (Burrows, Woodard, Thompson, possibly Lee, Vonn Bell) is about as good as they could have hoped for. Burrows and Woodard sound as though they will be early enrollees. I think a lot of next year's team's potential depends on whether or not some of these guys can step in and play well right away. If not, there isn't a big difference compared to a secondary that has struggled at times this year.
2013 could be a special year if the secondary and linebacking groups pull it together. The offense will be essentially the same as this year, with another year of experience, but with some possible added flash in Elliott and Marshall.
2014 could be the culmination of everything coming together, as long as the offensive line develops. To me, that is the only worry for 2014. The QB and skill players should be good enough, the d-line should have enough talent, the LB corps and secondary should be athletic, talented, and experienced. It will come down to the O-line developing under Warriner and paving the way for an explosive offense led by Braxton.
"What we do in life echoes in eternity"
There are questions on every team going into every year. There should honestly be NONE for the OSU offense going into next year. Top 5 QB, 3 returning RBs at least, entire O-line back aside from RT, top 3 WRs (only lose Stoney and Boren who isn't playing there anyway)
The D-line will be ok; bennett, spence, washington, schutt, hale, miller, pittman etc etc with the freshman
LB is a worry but hopefully 2 of the 5 from 2012 figure it out and we at least have 4 servicable guys
Secondary, I think Barnett is a junior so he's back next year, with Bryant Roby and Grant...sounds pretty solid back there honestly
In 2014 we will be replacing an entire O-line basically, as well as hyde/hall/Philly/roby/bryant. Too much uncertainty about who will have stepped up by then. You must be assuming a lot of the recruits pan out and that is so hard to predict
No way in Hell are Clemson, Florida State, Georgia, Florida, or LSU better than us. South Carolina too. LSU, Georgia and Florida have no offense. South Carolina is a clone of Michigan State, and Clemson and Florida State are far from juggernauts this year.
I see this team losing to Kansas State, Alabama, and Oregon, and possibly Notre Dame; although I think we'd match up well with Notre Dame.
Also don't discount Meyer's past in the SEC. If the bucks play an SEC team in a bowl game next year it will be a team the Urban has coached against. That and talent are a nice combination.
William: We barely beat Cal and Purdue (neither team particularly good), and more often than not lose that Mich. St. game. Florida beat Texas A&M, LSU and destroyed South Carolina with a healthy Lattimore, 44-11. Sorry, nothing personal, but the fact that you think we would beat them makes me discount everything else you say. LSU, Georgia and Florida are all roughly about as good as each other, and all beat us two out of three times right now. South Carolina with Lattimore throttled Georgia and barely lost to LSU. He's Mo Clarett-level good, and to compare him (indirectly) to very-good-but-not-great Leveon Bell also tells me that you're wrong (again, nothing personal).
Buckeye06: I think there are DEFINITELY questions for our offense next year that could keep it from being elite:
If any of the first five don't happen, we probably won't be elite. #6 is a luxury, in that it would keep us from having one of the very best RB's in the country, IMO. Hyde is very good, but Smith's ceiling is higher, All-American, NFL Pro Bowl high.
If most of the six things above become yes's next year, then we'll be scary good on offense. But none of them are givens....we shall see. I do have faith in Meyer, Warriner and Herman, though, so I'm cautiously optimistic.
Looking at Clemson again and I think you're right that we might be better than they are. They haven't proven anything, especially since VT isn't very good.
Our O-Line in 2014 will be very young, Decker will be a second-year starter and everyone else will be first-year starters, though Baldwin and Underwood will be seniors. Our 2012 OL recruits will be second-year players by that time, having gone against solid D-line talent for a whole year of practice. It will be a dropoff from 2013 for sure, maybe a big one, but I feel very good about everywhere else on the field, as I'm optimistic our young DBs will be at least solid by then, if no shutdown Chris Gamble (is that you, Doran, Eli?). We could look a lot like the 2002 team, which had only an average O-line, but we should have a much better QB and maybe even actual depth at RB (Smith, and Dunn/Ball/Elliott). Sounds pretty good when put like that doesn't it?
Notre Dame also barely beat Purdue.
What makes Florida, South Carolina, Georgia, and LSU so great? South Carolina nearly lost to Vanderbilt, Georgia to Kentucky, LSU couldn't shake Towson, and Florida had trouble with Bowling Green, plus both LSU and Florida have losses. See, I can play that game too.
We will be in the NC discussion starting next season but we will need a lot of style points (hang a couple 70's) in order to get there. We have very weak ooc schedules and the B1G looks a lot like the MAC aside from us. Everyone loves the SEC for good reason. Their teams win championships. Until a team like Oregon, K State, or God forbid ND knocks off a SEC team in the NC game they will continue to hold at least 1 position in that game.
Oregon is the only team I think can hang with bama this yr
mark may wins douchebag of the year... again
Oregon is the only team I think can hang with bama this yr
mark may wins douchebag of the year... again
William, not to hate, but if you think this team is as good as FSU, Georgia, or Florida, or LSU, you haven't been watching them much this year.
What games have you watched where you thought "Hot damn, We don't stand a chance against those teams"? The LSU-Florida game where they set back offense by 50 years? Or maybe the UGA-UF game, where they again had to figure out what a forward pass was? Maybe the South Carolina-LSU game, which again was a direct demonstration of offensively challenged teams. FSU is way overrated, they went into Carter-Finley and lost to the Iowa of the ACC in NC State. The only team in the SEC that we wouldn't beat is Alabama. What season have you been watching? Because I've been watching one where Florida has yet to figure out anything other than "Derp Mike Gillislee for two yards", or LSU's "Random RB for a gain of one" offenses. Georgia is terrible on defense with the exception of Jarvis Jones, and if it weren't for Gurley/Marshall, they would have no offense at all, because Aaron Murray has transformed into Joe Bauserman's half brother. Then, there's FSU, perennially overhyped. Who have they beaten this year? Clemson? Again, all of those teams have lost, while we haven't. I'm not saying that we are overly superior to them, but put them on a neutral field against OSU and I like our chances.
"The only team in teh SEC that we wouldn't beat is Alabama."
You can't be serious. Take off the Scarlett colored glasses for a minute. This team has huge potential for the future, but right now, we struggle with just about every team we play, and none of them are good. We almost lost to Cal, couldn't pull away from UAB, needed OT to beat Purdue, beat Indiana by 3, a 4-loss MSU team by one, our best win is against a team that gave up over 600 yards of offense to UCLA, but you think we could beat the #2 team in the SEC? Based on what?
William: Not badly played, but none of those teams came close to losing out of conference, like we did to Cal this season. As a matter of fact, LSU beat Washington 41-3, who are probably about as good as Cal. Do we have a convincing win like that against a solid BCS conference team? Nope.
Florida went to Texas A&M and won. Florida beat BGSU by 13, and it was the first game of the season for a young team.
Vandy is actually decent this year (beat Mizzou and Auburn, & were tied @ Northwestern in the 4th qtr, had about the same total yds in the end).
Kentucky aren't great, but they aren't a bad team either. They waxed Kent St. 47-14, for instance.
LSU and Florida's losses are to very good teams. It would have happened to us at some point if we played their schedules, I assure you. As much as I hate to admit it, the SEC really is much tougher than the Big Ten right now.
The offensive troubles you're seeing from them are what happen when decent offenses go up against better defenses. Don't make me bring up the last time we played an Urban Meyer/Charlie Strong/Greg Mattison-coached Florida defense.
I've also watched them play this year and while we could win, I don't think Urban would actually want to play any of the top four SEC teams right now. Luckily, we won't, but maybe next year... :)
No way you can say Florida State or Clemson is better than us. even if only by a thread. OSU would, IMO, beat both.
Pump the brakes there. When did beating Missouri and Auburn become an accomplishment? They both suck this year. Vanderbilt lost to Northwestern, what exactly about that is good? Because Northwestern sure as Hell isn't that good. Also when did Washington become a quality win? Keith Price is a horrible QB. Even when they had Jake Locker their ceiling was the Holiday Bowl. Kentucky's best victory is against a MAC squad? That justifies them as "not bad"?
"but you think we could beat the #2 team in the SEC? Based on what?" Well what makes the number 2 team in the SEC so good this year anyway? I never said we were overly dominant in comparison to those teams, just that 1) I don't think they're better than us, and 2) On a neutral field, I like our chances.
Ok William. We can barely beat Purdue, but sure, we'd beat the team that curbstomped South Carolina by 33 points.
yeah, you really can't do that^ apples to oranges.
South Carolina was over ranked from the season's begining.
Northwestern beat Vandy worse than South Carolina, so..........
That same team that lost to Georgia. See how that works? (and don't tell me Georgia is a better team than us, they aren't) The same team that is 118th in the country in passing and 34th in rushing, whereas we are 105th in passing and 10th in rushing. Also Purdue lost to Notre Dame by 3 in overtime....
William I honestly have no idea how you come to the conclusions you do. We have gone undefeated against, depending on the ranking, the 50-70th hardest schedule in the country. Georgia has one loss against the 15th ranked scheudle, Florida the 9th, LSU the 6th. We have struggled every step of the way, and if you watch the top 3 or 4 teams in the SEC, there really isn't much comparison in terms of speed, size, and strength. Now that is changing, but I simply don't understand how you can watch our performances and think we would beat those teams on a neutral field.
Yes, ND struggled with Purdue, they also just manhandled Oklahoma, beat Stanford, destroyed MSU, and beat Michigan handily. Where is our quality win?
Those schedules are inflated by preseason rankings. LSU plays Towson, Ole Miss, Arkansas, Auburn, Tennessee, Idaho, Washington, and North Texas. That gives them the 6th toughest schedule in the country? Hell Mississippi State isn't even that good, they had played no one prior to Alabama. LSU had a two game season in playing Florida (Who is severely challenged on offense) and Alabama.
I'd say manhandling a 6-2 Nebraksa squad 63-38, whose only other loss came on the road to UCLA is a solid win. Of course Nebraska did have trouble with Northwestern.
Ok so take A&M, Mississippi State, Florida, Alabama, and South Carolina. Those are the 5 best teams LSU plays. Now take our 5 toughest: MSU, Nebraska, PSU, Michigan, and Wisconsin(?) There is no comparison there.
I watch SEC all of the time and I agree with William. The SEC IS over rated this year. I even think Alabama can be beaten. One thing I have noticed is this years Buckeyes team rises to the occassion. Does not get the style points but these are the type of teams that can keep on surprising people. I watched A very bad Kentucky team take it to Georgia all night. Florida isnt elite either. I think a team like Oregon or Kansas St would be our toughest match up
So Waycracken you think if you put LSU or Florida in our schedule they would struggle with just about every team?
This year's SEC is vastly overrated. Bama is legit, but not leagues ahead of Oregon, KState or ND.
i would not be afraid to put OSU up against LSU, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, or Mississippi State. None of them are as good as they're being made out to be. Florida State will beat Florida and Clemson will beat South Carolina.
The SEC hgas been stellar for about half a decade, but they just aren't at that level this year. Their perception is inflated by preseason rankings.
Ok, well personally, I would be nervous about playing Purdue again, let alone LSU. We've struggled with what is the worst major conference other than the Big East. I just don't see us near the top teams in the SEC yet, even if they are overrated.
Oh, on a consistent basis we're not at that level, but we could beat any of them because they aren't at that level every week either. Not this year.
LSU is the most overrated of the bunch. Alabama might Michigan them.
I'd bet money we could play Purdon't the next 4 saturdays in a row and not drop a game to them.
An angry fan...rooting for an angry team...led by angry coaches
No more than they are doing in the SEC.
LSU vs Auburn 12-10, vs Towson 38-22.
Florida vs BG 27-14, vandy 31-17
Georgia vs Buffalo 45-23 Kentucky 29-24
South Carolina vs Vandy 17-13, UTenn 38-35
So now you see no better than our Buckeyes IMO
Yes, except you picked out some of the worst performances of those teams. Look at their quality wins, then looks at our quality wins.
Reiterating what others have said, the main concern of 2014 will be replacing 4 likely starters on the O-line. But we replaced 3 dudes this year and they are playing great with a converted tight end.
Skill positions and front 7 should be rock solid in 2014 if not already in 2013 depending on who steps up.
And just a reminder, fully aware of the bs of transitive property in college football, but I'd still point out Northwestern beat that Vandy team that SC and Georgia struggled with.
Also, Texas A+M finished seventh in the B12 last year (which didn't have West Virginia yet) and has a winning record in the SEC. Coulda beat Georgia too, but collapsed at the end.
KState, Oklahoma, Texas Tech and, since they beat OK at home, Notre Dame are all better than A+M.
Look, there is no denying the SEC has had a great run,but it's been largely fueld by three coaches- Saban, Miles, and Meyer. You can credit Auburn's championship to Meyer's recruit being stupid enough to steal a laptop. No Cam, no Auburn champ. Heck, Oregon almost won that game with Cam in there.
Saban has a good team, but Miles himself will tell you his team isn't as good as past years and Meyer isn't in the SEC anymore. The rest the SEC never accomplished anything on the field to deserve the reputation they all received by default. The SEC justisn't s good as past years right now. Their supposed strength this year is largely due t preseason over ranking.
I also think it is a down year for the big ten, but not to the extent that the media is portraying it. You basically have a good OSU team and a bunch of decent teams beating up on each other. In the SEC you have very good Alabama and a bunch of decent-to-good teams beating up on each other. I don't think Texas A&M is extremely better than Nebraska or MSU for instance. But the B1G would dominate the Big east if you match the teams up and probably the ACC too overall.
Big 10 > ACC, just sayin.
Ohio State> Florida State
Nebraska vs Clemson
Michigan vs VaTech
Michigan State vs Duke
Northwestern vs North Carolina
Iowa vs Georgia Tech
Wisconsin vs Miami
Penn State vs Virginia
Purdue vs NC State
Indiana vs Boston College
Minnesota vs Maryland
Illinois vs Wake Forest
Aren't we significantly better than last season?
Florida is too.
Florida beat us by just 7 last season, in Florida, with Walrus Ball in full effect.
Did Florida get THAT much better than us in the past 11 months?
hmmmm.......
Florida has apparently improved more than we have, since their results this year are significantly more impressive than ours. Please reread my and Buckeyeinannarbor's posts and if you still don't agree.......sorry.
Wait till you see what L'Ville has in store for them gaters
"Get him a body bag, Yeah!"
Did you not watch the Gator Bowl this past season? Florida was not that much better, than us.....in fact, had they not won on the scoreboard, you could say that they weren't any better than us. Do you really think with our coaching upgrades and player improvements, that they got untouchably better than us?
'13 has got to be the year. I know we need to replace 7 starters on D, but the last time we had to replace as much, it was actually 9 players the year we lost to Fla in the NC game. I'm not too worried, our O should be pretty nasty next year. '14 will also be a great year, one the Bucks could be capabable of making another run.. however we'll be replacing 4 starters on the OL, which to me is the biggest question mark heading into that season. The D should be nasty though.
We could take Kansas state any day of the week I think.
Buckeye_For_Life
We would have played a better game then ND did this year. Would OSU have beaten Bama....I'm a realist...so I'm going with no. Watch out this year Bama...with 4/5 new Olinemen and some holes on their defense as well....I like our chances MUCH better this year or in 2014 for sure. Bring on that crimson colored team....I want see OSU beat em. Would be a great game to watch...
"There's nothing that cleanses your soul like getting the hell kicked out of you."
"I love football. I think it is most wonderful game in world and I despise to lose."
Woody Hayes 1913 - 1987
I hate when people say "i'm a realist" as if Ohio State is completely outclassed. This isn't M*chigan,or Notre Dame. Ohio State not only has the talent to win, but they have one of the two best coaches in the country.
"YOLO" = I'm about to do something extremely ignorant/stupid & I need an excuse to do it.
Meyer is the better coach...he has had far more success in less time.
The top two are the only ones i'd be nervous about.
"YOLO" = I'm about to do something extremely ignorant/stupid & I need an excuse to do it.