Somehow today we went from a 3 point favorite to a 2.5 underdog against State Penn... Does Vegas know something about Braxton's health that we don't know? Seems like a big swing for not having any big news come out.
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2.5 seems about right to me even with Braxton. We haven't looked good the last couple weeks and home field typically gets you 3 pts. So I'd say Vegas is calling this one pretty even.
Fan of bacon since 1981
I don't think so. I would say the line is anywhere from being even to being a field goal advantage for either team.
it could be based on all our injuries not just brax... we've looked like the set of 300 with all the bodies littering the field
Odds are really just Vegas's best guess to keep the bets at 50-50 (if they do that the house really cleans up). If they are getting far more bets on PSU with OSU favored, they will flip the odds to get more people betting on OSU. They look at injuries or possible injuries percieved by the public to adjust their odds. Right now I would guess that there are even many of us thinking that Brax is not going to start next week despite the discharge reports. And, even if he does start there will be a fair amount of speculation that he may not finish the game. So a majority of gamblers may think that OSU by 3 is a good opportunity to bet on PSU. It that is the case, it is time for the handicappers to adjust the odds.
As stated above, the vegas odds are determined by bettors. If many people feel that PSU will lose by fewer than 3 points or that PSU will win then the line shifts to keep the bets about 50-50. Essentially this is a prime example of supply and demand, but I digress. Anyway after watching PSU dismantle Iowa and OSU barely beat Purdue people will view PSU as having the edge. Many of these bets probably came in last night and this morning leaving Vegas odds makers to adjust the line to again provide 50-50 bets. Therefore, do vegas odds makers know that Braxton will not play, no, but bettors might figure its possible that he won't play.
I want to be wrong but every time this year that we have played against a defense with a heart beat, we struggled to put up over 20 points. I don't see us being able to beat Penn State just by looking at the trends and the location played. Believe me, I wanna be wrong. My guess is 28-20.
I like our chances against PSU. They run a pro style offense and we've preformed we'll against those teams so far
Follow me @jaythesportsguy
Vegas also had us at what? 19.5 for Purdue...I dont think they know much...
After purdue was beaten 44-13 and and 45-14 in consecutive weeks at home by two good rushing teams, why would anyone expect differently when purdue was traveling to Columbus to face Miller, Hyde, and Smith?
Those who stay will be CHAMPIONS!
~Bo Schembechler
Wiisconsin beat Purdue 38 -14, who was the other good team that beat Purdue recently? Don't recall any.
Vegas sets the line, bettors change it.
It's the bettors taking the line. Bettors saw Braxton go down, bettors speculate on Braxton against PSU, bettors take PSU, PSU moves from getting points to giving points to encourage bettors to take Bucks and balance the book.
When a line moves that much (6 points), it's never a bad idea to go against the grain. Vegas is always smarter than you and me.
Optimistic_Buck nailed it. Vegas' goal is to get 50/50 on each side of the line and take a cut off the top. If there are too many bets on one side, they push it to attract more to the other side so they don't have to pay out. Souds like the betters at least think they know more following a very locse win to a terrible team and a QB trip to the hospital. An addicted better would have grabbed the 3 point OSU line knowing it would change.
No...they're just going off how he was injured and that lowers our chances of winning. Pretty much that simple really.
"There's nothing that cleanses your soul like getting the hell kicked out of you."
"I love football. I think it is most wonderful game in world and I despise to lose."
Woody Hayes 1913 - 1987
Braxton will play Saturday he just got knocked out cold tOSU staff did the right thing in taking every precaution even UFC fighters look like he did after getting knocked out they recover quickly bc theyre used to it in that sport Braxton is not and im guessing has never been knocked out before if it hasnt happened to you its quite scary the first time. As for vegas even Georgia opened up as favorites against Florida but not now as others have said bettors change that dynamic and it can happen fast.
They probably just got a lot of money on the Penn State side when OSU was the 3 point favorite and had to move the line to compensate. FWIW, I'd take PSU and the points at OSU -3 if I were a betting man. Anyhow, I look at this game as basiclaly a coin flip, with maybe a slight edge to PSU since they are at home. And this PSU -2.5 sounds about right to me, as I would not bet on the game at that line.
I may buy the 0.5 point and take OSU +3. This should be a low scoring, close game.
Vegas sees us play to our compition all year. Gone are the days of winning by 60, well this year anyways.
~Because we couldn't go for three~
Rare game that could be close, or could be a blowout either way. If both teams play to their potential, we win in a blowout. Better chance for us to lay an egg than for them to though. Also, it's not like we've played well in happy valley historically.
the kids are playing their tail off, and the coaches are screwing it up! - JLS
I really don't think we've been playing down to our competition. I think, as Urban Meyer said, we're just not very good right now.
FWIW, our last two trips to Happy Valley have seen OSU outscore PSU 37-17 in '07, and 24-7 in '09. Before that, no, historically not good. I don't think history matters. It's how you approach and play in each game that matters.
PSU has played well as of late, but the teams they've beat up on haven't been great. Still, they've looked more impressive than OSU has at times. OSU, though, is the best team that PSU has played. I'm just worried about Braxton's health, and hoping that this offense can get clicking this week.
Class of 2010.
Line is now at PK or -1 for Ohio State
If this was Jeopardy, I would take Ohio State for $200.
An angry fan...rooting for an angry team...led by angry coaches
If we can go on the road and beat MSU's defense, there is no doubt in my mind we can go to happy valley and do the same. I have a feeling that this offense is gonna be hungry this weekend and the defense could feed off that. Hope im right.
@Bhardy
I don't disagree with your statement, but Spartan Stadium is no Beaver Stadium and it wasn't a night game.
Those who stay will be CHAMPIONS!
~Bo Schembechler
Some could also argue that MSU is not as good as PSU. To me, PSU is a enigma full of moxie.
Does anybody think that Braxton's injury last week will lead to a huge dose of Carlos Hyde and more passing? I think we have to protect him a little more this week, espcially early in the game.
I did like how KG was poised in the pocket throwing the ball tho. I prefer not to see him on the field, but I think he is good enough to lead the Buckeyes if we need him.
As Rkylet83 mentions above, the line is now PK. The early bettors who moved the line to PSU -2.5 and then yesterday back to PK would not have had a clear picture on Braxton's status. Heck, the coaches and Braxton are probably still trying to figure out how his neck will function and respond to practice repititions this week, etc.
If the public knew for certain that Braxton was not going to play, maybe PSU would be 4 pt favorites. If Braxton was 100 percent healthy, maybe Ohio State is 4 pt favorites. Right now, PK seems about right. But if Braxton is, say, close to 95 percent by Saturday and I could have gotten Ohio State +3 yesterday, I would like my position.