Braxton currently has 959 rushing yards this season. He is averaging just under 120 yds/game and is on pace to finish with 1,439 rushing yards for the season, which would give him 2,154 for his career.
Denard is currently 351 yards shy of breaking Pat White's record for QB rushing yards of 4,480. He is currently averaging 128.5 yards/game and is on pace to hit 1803 yards for the season, which would give him 5,032.
If Braxton reached his on-pace target, he would be 2,878 rushing yards shy of Denard's hypothetical career total. It breaks down to 1,439 yards/season or 110.69 yards/game (13 game season) or 102.79 yards/game (14 game season).
So, does Braxton break Denard's estimated rushing record if he stays 2 more years?
Yes... Especially in this new system.
It's possible. But I don't think the goal is to have Miller run that much.
He's a much better passer than Denard, so hopefully that side of his game will continue to develop and guys like Ezekiel Elliot and Jalin Marshall can attack the edge creating holes for our bigger backs like Carlos Hyde and Bri'onte Dunn. If that happens, Braxton can hopefully throttle down his carries to the 10-15 range per game and that will leave him short of the record, but not because he isn't a better runner.
Upvotes for TennBuckeye and OSU07... because I completely agree.
Sure, Braxton could get there, but I doubt he will because some of his carries will be taken away by other explosive players that Urban is bringing into the program. The only thing in Braxton's favor here is that even though he may not get as many carries, I have a feeling his YPC average will increase quite a bit. He won't be as prone to keeping on option reads when he shouldn't if he has the confidence and wherewithall to give it up to other guys who also can make big plays.
"What we do in life echoes in eternity"
I think, and hope, that Miller's career rushing trajectory will look something like Troy Smith's, with less carries as he becomes a more commanding passer. I would like to see him eventually with something like 3-5 carries a game. Robinson is super quick, but does not match Miller's lateral movements, but Robinson is much, much, much, much faster.
Nope, but he does something that Denard will never do. Win a Heisman and a Crystal Football.
vacuuming sucks
I very much doubt it. In two years, if the offense is still demanding the volume of carries from Miller than it currently does, that would likely signal a major problem with the other skill players.
I don't see him for 100/game for the next two seasons, for multiple reasons. Robinson has continued with his huge rushing numbers because Michigan doesn't really have one of those playmakers at runningback, and also because his passing just hasn't developed much. Meanwhile, Miller is going to have Hyde/Smith/Elliott/Marshall/Hall(Maybe) to give the ball to next year and I think his passing will definitely improve more than Robinson's arm punts.
I agree with everyone else: he won't reach it because with all the talent that is going to be on board next year and the year after (and Meyer and Herman's philosophy of getting everyone involved), there won't be enough carries to go around to amass those kind of yards. We actually are putting together a football team down here in OH. Whatever Denard has been doing up in Shitagain gaining all these yards, it hasn't really helped the state of Shitagain football. Good for him, though -- at least he'll have one thing to show after four years of shit football (which includes a good year with an easy schedule). Dubious honor if you ask me.
This is a boring answer, but it's way too early to talk about this. Braxton is a phenomenal runner, but the combination of his ability to stay healthy, his development as a passer, and the combined skill and experience of everyone else on offense will all affect this.
If I had to guess, I would say no only because it's not easy to break a record like that and reasonable to assume we won't ever have to lean on him as much as a runner as we do this year in the future (Hopefully). Miller is going to run for a lot of yards every year because there's no reason not to give him at least ten carries a game (Against real teams) and he is going to take a decent amount of those all the way.
He'll certainly win more games than Denard did... isn't that good enough?
/Duff'd It
Honestly I really don't care if he catches Denard in numbers. I'd rather see him beat UM 3 times in a row and hopefully bring us back a crystal trophy.
If Braxton runs for anywhere near 100 yards a game as a junior and senior it would only be because we still wouldn't have established a good passing game. We should have many more "go to" options over the next 2 years or we're destin to be what Michigan has been the last few years. (a one man offense with no real championship aspirations.) no thanks!
D. Anthony
I don't think he will, I suppose he could get there, but as he gets better and making his reads he's going to develop as a much better passer. He's always going to be a threat to make huge run plays and could still get close to 1000 yards rushing per season, but I doubt as he gets older he'll run quite as much as he does now.
Even as he developes as a passer I think will get plenty of carries based on the amount of options we run. I think he needs a lot of work reading the options and hopefully will be a more efficient runner the next two years. Obviously it too early to tell, but I think he has a real shot at the record.
Don't care. I only want to see him lead the team as the QB to bigger and better things, hopefully an invite to NYC, a trip to a NC game and most importantly, a diploma when he leaves.
If he does I hope he gives him the horse collar.
Sorry guys, but i disagree with whomever is saying he should only get 3-5 carries a game. He's WAY too good a runner to dial it back that much. His situation does not compare to Troy's who was a good, not great, runner. Hopefully in the next couple years with more weapons, his attempts go down slightly, but since the opposing defenses will have to focus more on Marshall/Zeke, Braxton will have a higher YPC. Having said that, he will break the record and win 2 "you know whats" while he's at it. Don't want to jinx it.
Can he? Yes
Will he? No
He's very talented, but we don't want him running as much as Denard. I would like around 10 carries at most. He needs to develop as a passer and if he does I think defenses will have a really tough job of even slowing us down
Yeah I doubt he'll be a 3-5 carry guy, but he's not going to be an 18-20 carry per game guy either.
Miller already has 66 career runs of 10 yards or longer. I would venture to guess that Troy had less than half that in his career. Troy did run a lot his Junior year, but he was never the running bad ass that Miller is.
vacuuming sucks
I kind of hope he doesn't. I'd like to see him to get better at throwing the ball, throw more, and have other weapons around him. He has a better chance to win Heismans and national titles. Denard can have the rushing record.
Class of 2010.
As impressive as that may sound I dont think that would be saying much for the Buckeyes as a team if Braxton has to run that much.
O H I O is the Buckeye State
once miller becomes a polished passer (which i think he will). personally id like to see him with 7ish designed carries and 3-5 a game off of broken plays. i dont think he will reach tard nards yardage. however, i do see him winning a heisman, winning 10 games from here on out, and winning a ship, with a 3-1 record against meatchicken...
mark may wins douchebag of the year... again
Thanks for the opinions, guys. I do think it's ironic that the Michigan coaches and fanbase echoed the same things going into Denard's Junior season---run less, pass more. He would grow as a passer, guaranteed Heisman, etc. However, Michigan is attempting to move away from the spread and read/options and OSU is only going to get deeper into Urban's spread offense. Additionally, with Fitz breaking out last year, no one thought that Denard would come close to Pat White's record. Now he's 2-3 games away from it.
Those who stay will be CHAMPIONS!
~Bo Schembechler
@ Hail-
what makes Deenard's rush yard total even more impressive, is that he has done this, while wearing a Helmet that is 10x's too big for his head. When I see him out there on the field, I can't help but think of this:
@Hail...at this point, comparing Braxton's passing to Denard is just wrong. Denard has completely regressed as a passer to the point where he truly is a run first and pass maybe (if I have to) quarterback. Braxton is now completing 60% of his passes and that number will continue to improve. Braxton has proven to be effective at making decisions where Denard has proven to be effective at making the wrong decisions.
I'm more concerned about our defense catching Denard.
"Buclkle your chinstrap, we're gonna grind meat!" - Woody Hayes
To JohnBlair: "I didn't see you playing with your dolls, sir."
btw, Denard Dog needs the big helmet to hold in his hair.
Possibly, but if Meyer gets more weapons around him he might not need to win games on his legs alone which might lighten his carries per game ... which is alright with me.
JT
Agree with Frankly Scarlet..It seems at this point that Denard will have a much easier time running on our D than Braxton will running on M's D.
@OSUASU
I wasn't comparing Denard to Braxton as a passer---at all. I was simply pointing out that going into his Junior season, people were predicting his passing to improve. Braxton is a better passer.
And you're right, has passing has regressed, for the most part. However, with him being asked to convert to a hybrid pro-style offense (and the fact that he didn't bail like a lot expected him to). A better assessment of Denard is that he makes very poor decisions as a passer, as opposed to actually being a bad passer.
He did a very nice job in a true spread, though, with quick hitches, screens, and intermediate routes (always from the shotgun). He is terrible when he is under center doing 5-7 step drops and passing downfield.
Those who stay will be CHAMPIONS!
~Bo Schembechler
Agree with Zach, people trying to compare him with Troy are mistaken. First, Troy was in a pro-style system not built on his running threat so he was only running as a bailout option which he relied on less as he learned to keep his eyes downfield for big plays like Roethlisberger does for the Steelers. Second, Braxton is in a QB run-threat constraint system and will take the read that the defense gives him along with threatening the defense in different ways with designed QB counter runs etc. I do think he will be down in the 10-12 carry range at some point but they will be highly effective carries. He will grow as a passer but not to the detriment of his ability to threaten the defense with his running ability. It's not like he's dropping back to pass and just taking off because his first read isn't there. He is running by design because that is our best play. Why does everyone think that is a bad thing?
@Hail +1
I agree with the assessment that his new offense has hurt Denard's ability to put up decent passing numbers. However, I think his mechanics are pretty horrible (arm punt) to go with his footwork. I suppose when he does deliver a ball, it is catchable, but he is very suspect as a passer.
I don't think he does because I feel like they will become a better passing team in the future. This is still a new offense and as more and more playmakers come in, Braxton will start distributing the ball better. It will be close though.
In my mind, the defense is going to get better in the future and start holding teams to a three and out, which should shorten the field for them. If that happens, he sees less yards.
seriously waiting for his helmet to get it's own zip code:
almost looks like Saturday Night Live's- Gary Busey motorcycle helmet protector protector:
While it may not be a valid comparison since Tebow was a better passer as a sophomore than Braxton, Tebow's highest carry total was as a senior (217 carries vs. 314 passing attempts). The offense is what it is, it won't evolve into some pass-first concept. The passing game will be more efficient and hopefully the running game will be even more efficient. And that could involve handing it off more if other playmakers emerge. But it likely won't mean far fewer carries for Braxton or far more passing attempts.
Primary running concept is a power running team with a QB running threat in order to gain a numbers advantage. If the defense starts cheating guys in to stop the run we will throw, or if we get a favorable matchup on the outside. Tebow wasn't a fantastic big play runner, more of a power Jerome Bettis type back where he was extremely reliable to get the positive yards that were there and fall forward. Braxton is a dynamic playmaker and he will likely be the best playmaker on the team for the duration of his career. Not sure why anyone would want him to carry the ball dramatically less.
I don't think you can compare Tebow's carries to Braxton's because he was a totally differt kind of runner. Florida was pretty unique in that they had Tebow and a bunch of speed backs, so they used their QB for the inside run and their backs for the outside.
the thing i would say though is that with all these weapons were bringing in, it should spread out the defense, allowing braxton to break 30 and 40 yard runs. 110/game i think is totally feasable. 110 on the ground and 250 through the air. breaking records, winning heismanS, winning championshipS
Braxton's carries the next two years are going to be very dependent on the defense. The read option is the staple of the spread running game, so whatever the defense shows to Brax will determine if he gives it off or keeps it. If we continually see defenses bite on the RB (probably unlikely, as miller is usually the best playmaker on the field), you could still see Braxton carrying the ball 15 times per game.
Sorry Urban, Woody is still my favorite
@Conroy people try to cite that a lot but the plays are the same in structure. I.e. inside zone read involves the running back executing a dive with the QB going off tackle behind the unblocked DE if he crashes on the RB. Tebow ran it the same way, they just had different personnel. Maybe they ran more inverted veer type plays with the RB running a sweep and the QB running inside but the design of the plays was the same and inside zone read was still the main play.
Defenses are going to mix it up, so Braxton will still carry it 12-15 times per game throughout his career. There's less than a 1% chance he has a year averaging less than 10 carries per game in my opinion while not injured.
It is really some strange dogma that insists on a QB throwing the ball rather than running even if he is a great runner. Please read Ross's posts and understand the goals of this offense before insisting that Miller become a traditional QB.