The Simon article comments broached this topic so I thought it would be a neat and quick answer to give. Lets all agree on one thing,
WE WANT URBAN FOR AS LONG AS HE'LL STAY. These replys are going to be all opinion based, so no bashing, no one is a homer for saying he's a lifer, no one is a troll for saying he is gone in 3 years.
I believe that him staying will be very dependent upon his coaching staff, and if we see a mass exodus of assistants. I think it is safe to assume Coombs and Hinton are going to be around. Warriner, Withers, and Fickell all have head coaching aspirations and I think will be here shorter than longer. Herman is a young up and comer who may be around for a 3-5 but I think will ultimately get a chance to shine on his own and take the bait to. Bro Vrabel is probably solidly here but may follow Bro Fickell to his new HC destination.
In short, if he is able to keep his trusted staff in tact, I could see Urban staying around for a long time. I believe the biggest cog in how long Urban stays around is truly Fickell. So with Fickell staying, I think we could see Urban for 10-12 seasons.
Without Fickell and with a constantly changing coaching staff, I think the more realistic time frame is 6-8 seasons. 6-8 wonderful and magnificent seasons.
What do you guys all think?
EDIT: @HODGE, I don't think he will ever leave for another college position, and I highly doubt he leaves for the pros. When he leaves, he will be retiring from coaching IMO
Personally, I can't see him leaving for any other job--especially since he's basically stated that he has absolutely no interest in the NFL. If Notre Dame was at the height of their powers when he was considering OSU, I'd have been seriously worried; but he's not going to leave here for anything except retirement. My money says around 15 years. Keep in mind that his son's in high school, meaning in eight years he'll be a college graduate and will be an empty nester at that point. I think that's why he's going to stay. His heart issues at Florida were a wake-up call, and as long as they stay dormant, I think we're in for a fun ride here. He's not going to be a lifer like Paterno, Woody, or Bowden, but I think that he'll stay on as long as he wants to continue coaching--something I cannot imagine he'll be sick of after 6-8 years at his "dream job".
I hope you're right, Hodge. Hopefully he can keep a healthy work life balance. I think OSUASU nailed it with the staff thing. Once the guys he really trusts start moving on to bigger and better jobs, can he find new guys that are in the mold of what he wants? I thought he did really well during the creation of this staff going after guys with the mentality he wanted, even if they weren't the biggest names coming in (Let's be honest, who knew Herman before he got hired? Somewhere the 8 ISU fans are raising their hands). He'll have to keep doing that to be able to delegate to those guys and keep himself from trying to do everything.
I predict halfway through this contract they extend his deal for like 10 years and then he leaves somewhere in the middle of that extension, after helping pick his successor. Basis of my opinion is gut feel, I just don't see him here in 12-15 years.
When told OSU set school record for 50+ games this year, UFM said "That's good. We're gonna break that next year."
He wont leave but for:
1)He's not doing well here
2) His health gets worse
Given his age (48) he can easily coach into his early 60's and not be a Joe Patern unless his health can't handle it. I would expect him to be here for 10 or so years and retire after that.
I'd be happy with a solid decade of Meyer. Then he can maybe move up to AD and hand-pick the new football HC, like Barry Alvarez at Wisconsin.
"Attack the Strong, Trample the Weak, Hurdle the Dead!"
-Former OSU S&C Coach Lichter
I'll say a lot longer than Brady Hoke is at Michigan
"You win with people." - Woody Hayes
I actually don't think the staff leaving will impact much. He's used to that. He likes seeing his staff get offered HC jobs, that means he's succeeding and the team is succeeding, just like he likes to see when some of the kids leave early for the NFL -- that means we're recruiting and developing well. I agree with steens above, that I only really see him leaving if his health begins to deteriorate in any way, or he's not succeeding here.
5-8 years depending on health.
Guys like him love a challenge. They love the idea of rebuilding and getting a chance to do something huge at a big school. Granted, Florida is a great program and certainly top of the heap for the last 15-20 years, but it's not Ohio State. He Florida when they were down and got them 2 titles. He's come to Ohio State which was at it's lowest point in history between the bad season, the scandal, etc and he's reinvigorated the program and fan base. If they succeed early and often, he may find himself wanting a new challenge in 5 or 6 years. He gets what it means to be at Ohio State and he knows all the right things to say and do to get everyone excited, so while I love comments he makes about Ohio State, I always take them with a grain of salt. I don't think he's not genuine, but he does know what strings to pull to endear himself to the fans. If they win 2 titles in 5 or 6 years and are a contender every other year, he could get bored.
OR......He is completely sincere and genuine with his statements about Ohio State, and this is truly the dream job he's always wanted to have much like it was JT's. In which case, he may be around 15 years or so.
I think the truth is somewhere in the middle. He loves the challenge right now, he's going to bring the team to a whole new level, and the conference will improve because of what he's doing here, so that will bring about more challenges to tackle. I think he does love Ohio State, and that it's a job he very much so desired to have and he recognizes the special opportunity here. I also believe he knows this program in "shambles" still isn't far from a national title, so while it'll be hard to win a title, it won't be THAT hard to get back to contention. So, the legend of Urban Meyer will grow more and pretty quick here. I do think he could ultimately be tempted away by a job that would require quite a bit of ambition to rebuild the program and put it back at the top of the heap. That in my opinion is the kind of guy he is. Ambitious.
If I had to handicap it, I'd say 8-10 years, but for the reasons I've stated 5-6 wouldn't shock me, but neither would 15-20.
I just simply don't see him leaving for another job. I could see him have success or (heaven forbid) struggling and then leaving coaching again for another couple years or so before getting the itch to come back. What would he really come back for? What other job would he go after? He's got one of the best HC jobs in America that's going to pay him as well as anyone in America. The only thing could be the NFL but that's just not a good match. Between his offensive philosophy and his coaching style/approach, I don't see it working and I think he knows that. I don't see him relating well to NFL players without him trying to gouge out some eyes. I can see him doing well and feeling like he has nothing left to prove and leaving being the most likely outcome...With a possibility of him getting lured out of retirement down the line for some kind of unique opportunity. I'll give him roughly 10 years I suppose. Hard to say I suppose.
I know he didn't specifically leave Florida for another job, but why leave Florida at all? First class facilities, would pay any salary, immensely successful, easy to recruit being that they are in the biggest hotbed of talent in the US. Would Ohio State really have been a better job? Probably about the same at the end of the day. He could of sat a season and came back to coach at Florida after he got the perspective, much like Coach K did in the mid 90's at Duke.
I know there were help issues etc, but I think some of it was boredom. What else did he have to prove down there? So he leaves becomes an announcer gets to evaluate the schools and potential jobs around America and lands at Ohio State who is going through some terrible times. He'll coach here a while and win a lot of games, but I wouldn't be shocked if another job in 6 or 7 years piqued his interest. A new challenge, a new rebuilding job may take him away. We know of one giant that will be in hibernation for several years, who in 6 years or so may be looking for a new coach....
I'm not saying I believe this will happen, but we gotta take a step away from our fandom and we'll see that there are other schools out there who have great facilities, great fan bases, and can pay any amount of money. It may be that everything Urban has said since day 1, is 100% genuine and this will be his last coaching job and he'll be here for a long long time. That's very possible as well.
10+ years. This is home!!
He wont leave unless its for the NFL, you never know cuz the NFL seems to be changing and the mobile QB's are starting to come into the league and thrive with Cam and RGIII (we'll see.) As far as I know Urban employs more of a system that is successful at the college level but as I said the NFL seems to be in transition perhaps. Once Urban wins one or two championships (and heismans) and rakes in 5 mill a year what more is there to gain? Oh ok more money, haha we're all the same, in it for the money. He'll be here for 10 plus years, there will probly be some big controversy like every other OSU head coach and he'll retire. Thats good enough for me.
Lets play a games first!
Wherever you are, there you be!
BT - is that sleeping giant PSU?? If so - no - I don't think that would ever happen...It's a step down IMO & I can't see him staying in the same conference to coach against OSU...
My guess is 5-10 years hopefully closer to 10. He's going to win a lot of games here & get a lot of support...I can't see him ever just hating it at OSU & leaving for another school.
The world is full of kings & queens who'll blind your eyes & steal your dreams - it's heaven & hell - Ronnie James Dio.
for all those who want to spend more than 500 words talking about this... WHO CARES?!... he is our coach let's love and appreciate the fact we have a super star at the helm and stop worrying about what might happen in 5-10 years... awful discussing topic.
Meyer's 2 out clauses at Florida were for OSU and ND. A hapless, flailing, edge of extinction ND, needing the right coach to "wake up the proverbial echoes" may be the one challenge that entices Meyer to leave. It would be a huge challenge/project to win a NC at ND, IMO.
Don't see that happening in the next 6 years.
Q: How long will Urban be HC?
A: He'll have about one hour to clean out his office if he redshirts John Simon for no apparent reason.
"I'm One Bad Buckeye, and I approve this message."
@fromthe18...excellent post, way to bring something to the conversation
Thanks One Bad. I was thinking the same thing, and yours is way funnier.
meyer will not leave osu for another college team. im just glad we have him, imo if we get him 6 or more yrs we get 2 natl championships. @fromthe18 lol why post? i hope everythings ok bro
mark may wins douchebag of the year... again
32 years.
@JOHNBLAIRGOBUCKS - He had one other team listed in his "out" clause at UF...Meeeshigan.
2 titles in 6 years? That is some pretty strong koolaid.
Urban is the type of guy who needs new experiences and new challenges. He has to keep on the move. He'll be here for 5-6 years and then move on to a new experience. There is a good chance it's not another college coaching job, though. Could be NFL, could be something in a different direction. I just don't see him ever settling down for more then a few years.
Meyer runs way too tight of a ship to ever coach in the NFL. The best ones who made the jump (Switzer and Johnson) were notorius for running loose ships. I don't know that the spread won't ever work in the NFL (I think the day is coming soon when we see a team attempt to run it exclusively), but Meyer won't be coaching that team. He has a better chance of bolting for ND.
@Hodge,
Although we're probably talking in tenths of a percent at this point. I have to disagree with the ND thing. For three reasons:
1. He says this is home, he loves OSU, this was the one and only. If this is true (and I believe him!) then I can't see him leaving for another school.
2. Ability to win NC(s). Yes ND plays some patsies, who knows what will happen in 6-8 years, but ND also plays some tough competition that I think would make the road harder for them to get to the championship if the SEC is still king and the B1G makes strides.
3. Finally, the fans. Can you imagine what our fan base would do if Coach Meyer left for ND? If we thought UF was butthurt over him coming here, watch out. Although this is a small factor in the long run, I don't think he wants to be remembered like that
Urban already said he'd like to finish his career here at home. I don't see the need to speculate that Urban's going to bolt anywhere at this point, he hasnt even coached a game yet! You all sound like a buch of overprotective boyfriends concerned that your girlfriend is going to break up with you at any second.
Why don't we all wait out side the WHAC with signs that read: "Urban, What are you thinking right now? Is everything okay? Do you still love us? I can't believe you talked to that person!"
Yeesh! A cooler thread would be to speculate who will be Meyer's sucessor down the road sometime. I for one think if Fick sticks around and gets coached up by UFM he could be a VERY attractive candidate to succeed Meyer......eventually. But for now, I'm going to really enjoy watching the Urbanator kick TTUN's ass year-after-year. O-H!!!!
"I'm One Bad Buckeye, and I approve this message."
@OSU07ASU10 - I was referring to both being damn near impossibilities. I think that this was one of this three "dream jobs", the others being UM and ND. I think he knew that whichever one he chose would be the last job he held, though; and I honestly believe that. My only thing with ND is that I read something about how his mother used to dream about him one day coaching there, coupled with the fact that he's a hard core Catholic (named after a pope!). I guess if all three jobs were available, and all were on equal competitive footing, I think he's 45%-45%-10% ND-OSU-Michigan. Granted, there's lots of evidence that he worships OSU, as well--especially Woody Hayes and Earle Bruce. There's no way that I can see him leaving for one of those other two jobs, though--unless OSU fires him or something.
I think this is his last coaching gig, he'll either be an AD or broadcaster after this. All his one year away taught him was that he couldn't subsist without being a head coach, so I think it'll be a while before he hangs up that headset.
@ONE BAD BUCKEYE
I don't think that was the point of the thread, it was to pass time and get some quick opinions and avoid bashing, which you managed to do.
However, you are right I don't know what Urban is doing right now, crap, he hasn't responded to my last 4 texts either,...I better go post up at the WHAC and make sure hes still breathing and not cheating on me with John Simon. I am always the one to say I love you first...damnit, hes leaving isn't he?????? OMG!
Hodge, I'm glad you brought up that Michigan was one of the jobs that Urban couldn't have said no to. I'm pretty certain it was in his book, too. I think that's out the window now. Even if he left OSU right now and waited for Hoke to move on, I think that line has already been crossed. You can't be head coach for a school and switch to its biggest rival.
I agree that I don't think he jumps ship for another coaching gig. I think he'll coach through his contract and then move on. I'd say it's very unlikely that he'll win 2 national titles in that span, though, SirRick. I'd be happy with one.
Those who stay will be CHAMPIONS!
~Bo Schembechler
@HAIL - Yeah, it's pretty similar to Bo Schembechler. There are lines that you just cannot cross. I remember watching an interview with him: he was recalling being offered the Miami job, and was telling Woody that he was thinking about taking it. His words were something like this:
It makes sense that he'd have interest in those three programs, they were the top three regional programs when he was growing up. It even makes sense as to why he was reportedly talking to Penn State before everything went to Hell there; he basically grew up a stone's throw from Pennsylvania, and at the time JoePa was a legend...
with urbans track record of winning+the tradition of osu..... if saban can do it and meyer did it in fla. i dont know why my kool aid is so strong? whatever, ive been wrong about things that i thought were far more certain.
mark may wins douchebag of the year... again