I started thinking about this in response to the whole "will urban create a dynasty" forum. I don't know whether he will create a dynasty, but I did start thinking about how long I expect Urban to stay here. I doubt there's anyone who could last as long as Paterno in this climate, but do we think that Urban could retire here? I mean, its pretty tough to try to move up in prestige from tOSU. I don't know for sure, but I really didn't think Florida was much of an elite program before Urban.
Well, I'm just curious as to what the 11w folks think.
I have been asking myself this same question since he was introduced as the new coach. My guess is that if he can keep assistants that he trusts and respects and that allow him to delegate a lot of the work load that he will stay for 10yrs or more. However, if that doesn't happen of if things get too stressfull in Columbus I think he will leave after 4 to 6 seasons. Let's hope he stays for a long time. He is after all still a young coach.
Yes there are two Buckeyes in Ann arbor on this site!
This will be his last job. Cannot see him going elsewhere from OSU. It means too much to him. The only thing I see changing this is if he continually loses assistant coaches. I think that took its toll at Florida and was the reason why he tried to take on too much himself. He can lose one here or there every couple years, but if he gets raided and two or three every other year leave, it could change things. With all that said it seems to be a very fluid situation, doesn't it?
That is one thing I like about having Herman. He was honored to get the opportunity to work with Urban and it may keep him there a few years. Instead of taking a smaller head coaching job he will hopefully build a juggernaut offense at OSU over a few years, which will land him a major job somewhere down the road ala Dan Mullen.
I totally agree with Ann Arbor Buckeye (What the hell? talk about a oxymoron), He just does not strike me as a guy who will stay at one place for a long time. He is still young meaning there is still other goals he would like to achieve. I am sure one of them was to coach in Columbus and win a National Championship, being an Ohio guy and all. But, if that happens does Urban go look for the next challenge? Or does the stress get to him? If he loses two in a row against Michigan, the stress meter will be shooting up to level red.
Question to buckeye fans.....if Dan Mullen gets canned at Mississippi State this season does Urban hire him and get rid of Herman?
Ridiculous, Herman took Rice to offensive numbers they have never seen before. Iowa State had offensive prowess they will be lucky to come close to in the future. Herman will be a "rock star" just like Mullen was at Florida. You are becoming increasingly irrational.
6 seasons and a movie.
Because I asked a simple question? cool.
I think its safe to say that this will be the last place he coaches assuming there are no situations that cause him to resign or get fired early. He is currently 47 years old. Most coaches coach until they are 60ish health permitting. I think he will be here for at least 10 years.
I think Herman and Fickell will leave for HC jobs in the next 5 years. The drawback to putting a staff together with up and coming coordinators is that they will most certainly leave to become head coaches.
We do not have a NC roster right now but if we continue to recruit the way we have been, we should have the starting talent and quality depth in place by 2013-2014. Urban will be coaching in the same type of climate as Tressel; a top heavy conference with maybe 1 team that has comparable talent. IMO MSU and Wisconsin will go back to being MSU and Wisconsin.
Michigan is getting top tier players but I don't belie they are NC contenders just yet. Although it seems counter intuitive I think Denard is actually holding them back. When he graduates they will finally be able to fully implement the pro style offense they are recruiting for and things should come together.
- Respect the Rivalry -
Can't we just enjoy the ride we are on now? lolz
I believe he learned his lessons in Floria. In the presser after his hire, he mention that he was taking on too much in Florida trying to train other coaches after some of his coaches left. This was one of the reasons his health started failing. I think having two offensive and defensive coordinators gives him a cushion in case one of them leave...he will already have one in line that knows his system. He seems to be structuring all he does around living a balanced life, and I think this is one thing that will go a long way in seeing he stays healthy. If his assistants hoid up their end, I see him here a long time.
I do not see Fickell leaving, I believe Fickell loves that place too much. I mean who would of stayed beside him after they just hired someone for the same position he was occupying and then volunatarily take a demotion. In an era of high egos in the college game I respect that and really respect Luke Fickell. To be honest, as an outsider I thought he did a great job last year given the circumstances. Gene Smith or the next AD deserve to give Luke Fickell an honest look if something was to happen to Urban.
@rational I completely agree, should something happen to Urban I think Luke would be given another serious look and I think he will have earned it. But as @fail said if the next five years are very successful ones and Urban is still going strong it is hard to imagine that he wont be getting looks at HC jobs at other schools. All Buckeye or not there is somewhat of window for these guys to move up. Remember he did interview for the Akron job last fall.
Hopefully Urban is Columbus for a while, and is able to learn from the mistakes he made in Florida concerning his health. If he is here 10-15 or so years, down the line when Urban steps down I think Fickell would have to be at or near the top of a short list of replacements assuming he has gone on and gotten a HC job elsewhere by then.
If I were a Buckeye, realistically speaking, I would be ecstatic if Urban finishes out his 6 year contract. I don't see him there longer than that, and most of my Buckeye friends agree. Absolutely cannot see him there more than 10 years.
Those who stay will be CHAMPIONS!
~Bo Schembechler
I think it depends. If he hasn't learned to take care of himself (which, at the moment, seems like he has), he'll be like a Blue Giant star. He'll burn brighter than anyone, and burn out twice as fast. Now, if he has figured this out (time will tell, but he's been saying the right things so far), I can see him here for a long time.
This job is one of the last true destination jobs in the NCAA (Michigan, 'Bama, Texas, and USC are the other 4), and has traditionally been the last stop in coaching careers. Meyer has no intention of coaching in the NFL (and his style doesn't translate well; FWIW I think Tressel's game coaching and "laissez faire" style regarding players translates much better), and contrary to what the delusional domers believe, Meyer is not biding his time for Notre Dame (though if they were still elite, I'd be a little worried).
I think what people are missing here is that in eight to ten years, his 13 year-old son will have graduated college. At that point, when his contract renewal comes calling, he won't need to take any more time off to raise his children--he'll be taking care of his grandchildren by then (a la his daughters already in college). Could this increase his chances of burnout? Most definitely. But I think that it bodes well for his future, and luckily, I think the end of his career taught him two invaluable lessons: (1) he can't live without football, (2) he has to take care of himself because of number one.
Future looks pretty good, at least from my (albeit biased) point of view.
I think between 6 and 10 years, but no more than 10.
Nobody knows how long Urban will coach here. We all hope for a decade of success similar to what we saw under JT, but I wouldn't even guess until I see how he holds up through the course of at least one season.
Fickell interviewed for the HC job at Pitt. Presumably he'd have taken it if he had been offered the position. He'll take a HC job soon, 2-3 years is my guess.
He will probably stay for 5-6 years and then give the NFL a try.
^He's not interested in the NFL at the moment.
He coulud have stayed at Florida another 5-8 years if not for the health issues and losing all his assistant coaches. Some say he's so intense that he can't last more than 6-7 years. We'll see. I mean Tress was going on a decade and hadn't even hit 60 I don't believe. I can see a decade+ if he keeps himself healthy and doesn't get burnt out because where would he go from here? ND?
@REDSTORM - Once upon a time, I'd have been scared of ND. He's catholic, coached there, and I think his mother said she always dreamed of him one day coaching there. But the fact of the matter is that Notre Dame is no longer an elite program. They've been sliding downhill since Holtz left, and their only hope is to join a conference--to which they stubbornly bite their thumb to. The administration settled for Brian Kelly. This will be Meyer's last job, take it to the bank.
He's not interested in the NFL at the moment, but he might be in a few years. Let's say he wins a national title here and has nothing left to accomplish here. He may get an itch t move on to a new challenge and see if his offense can work in the NFL.
His coaching style is too overbearing for the pros. The way he controls his kids would never fly for the NFL. Now, if he changed it, maybe. But he's been pretty adamant that he has no interest in coaching there. FWIW his spread may work, but he won't achieve elite success with it in the NFL, the defenses are just too damn good.
at least 6 years, no more than 10. and at least 2 National Championships! Please, oh, Please, oh, Please, oh, Please!!!
6 years is a logical belief. That has been his typical cycle. Coach a few years and move on. I think Florida he kind of had a perfect storm take its toll on him. He was having health issues, he lost a lot of assistant coaches and made some bad promotions after he lost the likes of Mullen. Promoting Addazio was a horrible mistake. He was in a cut throat league where he saw many rules being broken and he tried to not only run his program, deal with recruiting, but he also ventured into the waters of trying to bring some sort of reform to the NCAA. Anyway, all that combined, in my opinion, led him to a nervous breakdown at Florida.
If he did truly find balance in his life, as he said he did, I could totally see Urban Meyer walking the sidelines in the Horse Shoe for years to come. I also wouldn't be shocked if he left after his contract was up.
I think it's very easy to say well look at what he did other places and use that for support of an opinion he'll only be in Columbus for 6 years. I say, Ohio State is not the same as Florida and the situation will be much much different here. First, there's not going to be much recruiting competition here period. I don't really worry much about the other B1G schools. Especially ones not named Michigan. Brian Kelly is pulling in decent recruits but by and large he doesn't scare me either. Even Michigan, to an extent, isn't really recruiting that many of the same kids, and of the ones both schools are recruiting, I think Urban wins more of those battles than he loses to Hoke.
Add to it that Ohio is where is he from. He loves Woody Hayes. Earl Bruce was his mentor. His roots are firmly planted in the Ohio State program. Also, every coach the level of Meyer has a huge ego. I think he'd love to be remembered as the greatest coach in Ohio State football History. Or at least 1A with Woody.
All of that is a very long winded way of saying, I like the chances of Urban staying put in Columbus for a long time. I wouldn't be shocked if it were 6 years, but I think it's more likely he'll be here 10+ years.
As long as he is happy with us and we are happy with him he'll be here. I think BT hit the nail on the head. Urban will have very little to no recruiting pressure within the B1G, much like Tressel. He will win B1G Championships, much like Tressel. He will be loved by the fanbase, much like Tressel. Urban will get his shots at MNC's and will prolly win at least one. If he is happy and feeling good in six years I'm sure he will be here for awhile.
The thing is, we will get a glimpse of his intentions near the end of next year. He will be coming to the end of year two, of a six year contract, and the University will want to wrap him up for longer. Will he add a one year extension or multiple years? He is a recruiting machine. He won't want to have other schools using his short contract against him. He may sign a multi-year extension as soon as next fall. What do you guys think?
I thought the Rational Mfan was the oxymoron here. Hmmm..... Just sayin'.
"Outside of a dog, a book is a man's best friend. Inside of a dog it's too dark to read." - Groucho Marx
BT i have to agree with you. All the greatest coaches of all time did an overwhelming majority of their coaching at one school (woody, paterno, bear, bowden, etc.). I think urban realizes this, and even if he says he doesn't care how he's remembered, i mean, who wouldn't want to be revered on the same level as woody? I really think that as long as he keeps everything together, he could stay here until he retires. I'm putting my bets on somewhere around 14 years as the absolute best case scenario, and with 2 nc's during that period, he could go down on the same level as woody
I interviewed Gigi Meyer and asked her this very question. Here is her answer in the interview: http://www.osusilverbullet.com/4/post/2012/04/tsb-qa-with-gigi-meyer.html
And don't worry about Notre Dame or the NFL. My interview with Gigi Meyer states that her father has no interest in the NFL. My interview with Nicki Meyer, Urban's oldest child, can make us rest assured that he will not go to Notre Dame:
http://www.osusilverbullet.com/4/post/2012/04/tsb-qa-with-nicki-meyer.html
OSU is where he wants to be, no other place is on his radar according to his daughters.
Great interview Silverbullet. Yeah I can see Urban being here for a good while. This is home,his dream job. Alot of outsiders talk alot but you can never tell what someone is going to do when they are living their actual DREAM.
I think the only real question is did he learn to take care of himself in the year after he left Florida. If he did, there's no reason to think he won't be at tOSU for as long as he wants and produces B1G champions in the discussion for the MNC. (Surely that's a given!!)
In two years he took BG to heights they had never experienced and got a better job. Then in two years at Utah he took them to heights they had never experienced and got a better job. Then in four years he took Florida to heights (2 MNCs) they had never experienced and was burnt out two yeras later.
I'm hoping he's learned to take care of himself, while keeping most of that intensity, which has so far translated very well on the recruiting trail.
I don't see UFM leaving OSU for another job of any kind. I believe that OSU will be his last coaching job. The only question is weather or not he can keep trustworthy assistants on his staff so that he doesn't go back to micromanaging the staff and players to the point of burning out again. If he keeps that together and the school seems willing to pay his assistants whatever is necessary to try and keep them; I think he could be here a long time. Let's hope things go well and he is in Columbus until he is old and grey.
Yes there are two Buckeyes in Ann arbor on this site!
In interviewing his daughters I get the impression that: OSU is his final job (Nicki and Gigi) and he will be around for 6-7 years (Gigi). He will only be 54 in seven years so I think 10 is not out of the question. People tell me his passion for OSU is extremely high, something his daughters may not always see first hand because he leaves football at the office.
5 years.
1 National Championship.
Wins over scUM in the B1G title game.