11W has persistently said that OSU is heading for a top recruiting class next year (posted in several articles) and I couldn't figure out how they are so sure. So, I reviewed the last several OSU classes on Rivals from 2008 (ranked #4), 2009 (#3), 2010 (#25), 2011 (#11) and what really stood out was that 3 star recruits over the last four years have had minimal to no role (with some exceptions..hankins, roby, simon, orhian johnson) on the field, while consuming valuable scholarship spots -7 (2008), 8 (2009), 11 (2010), 14 (2011). I then reviewed the last class (ranked #4) before and after UFM hire:
BEFORE:
3 star: 7
4 star: 6
5 star:0
AFTER:
3 star:2
4 star:8
5 star:2
..and the 2013 class
3 star: 0
4 star: 4 (#28, # 41, #83, #130)
5 star: 1 (#7)
..with the vast majority of the projected remainder of the class (from previous posts) ranked as 4 star recruits. I think the major difference with UFM is that he will land us many more 4 star recruits and we won't settle for 3 star recruits (I know I'm stating the obvious...but just wanted to show the numbers). This will end up leading to a top 5 recruiting class each year (based on reviewing previous rankings) which can be done (example, Alabama; result, NC)
So...seeing as how the 2012 class had 83% 4-5 star recruits after UFM hire and currently 100% 4-5 star recruits, I think we will clearly notice these differences on the field. In my opinion, recruiting is the MOST important aspect on a college football team (hence, UFM's approach to hiring assistant coaches which has clearly paid off). I have my doubts about the offense next year (given lack of proven playmakers except Braxton Miller), but I think OSU 2013 and beyond will definitely contend for multiple NC with these recruiting classes.
Firstly, great post. But, if nothing else, just embrace the fact that our offense cannot possibly be worse than last year :)...I don't expect anything close to elite, but it is worth noting that Meyer is one of the best offensive minds in the game, and he has a lot of raw talent to develop.
Haha, very true. It will be interesting to see what he will be able to do with what do we have next year...and it will only get better from there.
Great post, but I'm not sure if I agree that recruiting should be valued highest in the sport, as you implied. I think you can have all 5-star recruits, but if you're poorly coached as a team, lack of chemistry, unity, and direction will ruin a season. I don't think we have anything to worry about with Urban at the reigns though. I'm excited.
Just the fact that Bollman is no longer around should automatically make the offense better than last year, even without playing a single down.
Obviously the play calling was bad all year and execution was not good either. Mix that in with the fact that we were playing without guys who were suspended and playing with inexperienced guys who couldn't make plays. But what I still don't get is how in the world Bauserman started over any of the other QB's. That was the biggest joke in the world.
And then with Miller solidly in as a starter, and the season was not going well, why didn't Bollman just go all out balls to the wall and get aggressive with the play calling (especially down the stretch in the big ten and in the bowl game, i mean the bowl game was his last freakin time to call plays and he gives us that crap)? Sure we would've made mistakes and had turnovers, but it also would've given the offense an opportunity to do something other than running predictable running plays on 1st down, pass attempt on 2nd down, draw play on 3rd down. We ended up 6-7 doing it the Bollman way, I doubt it would've been much worse and could've been better is he had just grown a pair and was more aggressive.
@BUCK-I.8- just ask Mack Brown lol
I want a competent offense andelitre defense.
Agreed...case in point over the last few years..Texas and to some extent, Florida State who have had great recruiting classes. You need a coach who can really do everything you mentioned, but I think in order to win national championships, we will need to have top recruiting classes. Look at Alabama, they have had a top 5 recruiting class since 2008 and now have NCs from the 2009 and 2011 season.
I really like your post because I definately agree Urban is not gonna settle for the lower end recruits. My only arguement would be that I think you hated on the "3 star" talent on our team a little much (saying their consuming scholarships) and didn't look close enough at their roles (you named a few exceptions but there were plenty more). Remember the star rating is just a guess and not how they will actually play out in college and obviously each site will have different opinions. My favorite examples of this are Alex Boone 5 star recruit- average at best LT, AJ Hawk 3 star recruit- All American
3 stars
08' Ben Buchanan starting P, Orhian Johnson 15 starts S, Jermil Martin- transfered but had some solid carries in a back up role
09' Adam Bellamy- solid d-line starter and contributer, Zach Boren 4 yr starting full back, Reid Fragel- solid backup TE soon to be startin RT, Kenny Guiton- solid backup QB, John Simon- enough said
10' Roby- solid CB starter, Verlon Reed- WR contributer before injury, J.T. Moore- started a few games on DL, Basil- solid starting K
11' I feel like its hard to judge these 3 stars cuz they've only been around 1 yr but so far Devin Smith starting WR team leading reciever in 11', Antonio Underwood- started 1 game work in progress, Evan Spencer- 3 rec 78yds 1 TD, Joe Hale- contributed in 9 games on the DL
I do however trust his talent evaluation (and he's going after national talent) more even if they are 3 star prospects I trust that they are 4-5 star talent case in point one of Urbans favorite recruits last year Jamal Marcus considered a 3 star by many sites but definately looked like a 5 star on film
I thought Simon was 4 star.
Simon was a 5 star on scout
A little nonsense now and then is relished by the wisest men
How Jamal Marcus is a 3-star still baffles me... Urban has done nothing but rave about him.
Bucknasty, thanks for mentioning Jamal Marcus who was a 3*. Kids with a 3* rating will still be evaluated, and, sometimes, the staff will realize certain kids are underrated. Regardless, it does seem clear that this staff is focusing on "elite" talent. So far, the 2013 class is off to a great start.
I used rivals to point out the 3 stars because I saw thats what buckwhile was using when referring to the recruiting class rankings. Again each site has different opinions on rankings (example Simon being rated a 3 star on one site and a 5 star on another) I find it hard to find the best opinion as far as ranking because each one has problems so I try to use a combination of them all
Rivals- underrates players each year and misses on a lot of sleepers (Simon, Marcus)
ESPN- ranks many players in the south and recruited by the SEC higher than they should be and low balls northern prospects
Scout- hands out 5 stars like its their job they rate their top 50 prospects as 5 stars whether they are 5 star talent or not
24/7- some guys overrated some guys underrated same story
Roby is a great example of a 3 star developing into a key player. He played solid last year, and is apparently killing it in workouts. I am really excited to watch him represent DB U.
ESPN ranks football recruits much like the system college basketball has for "McDonalds All Americans" - The "McDonald's All Americans" are purely chosen based on what schools are recruiting them, which is the same thing ESPN does with players being recruited by the SEC. If you're being recruited by LSU, Alabama, etc. you're more than likely going to get 1-2 stars more than you deserve based purely on the fact that you must be good if they're going after you.
@OTrain...thanks for making those points. I know I was making some generalizations and I agree that there are more three star recruits on this team that have panned out and still some with great potential, but I was making some generalizations to try and get my point across more clearly.
Currently, the 2012 class had 83% 4-5 star recruits after UFM hire and currently 100% 4-5 star recruits. I looked back at the classes from 2008-2011 on rivals and we had seven 5 star recruits (8%), 39 four star (46%), 37 three star (43%) and 3 two star (3%). Given OTrain's point I thought it would be interesting to list those recruits so everyone could see how they 4 stars compare to the three stars (to see if it really makes a difference)...may lead to some interesting discussion. Again this is all data from Rivals:
5 stars: Terelle Pryor, Devier Posey, Mike Adams, Mike Brewster, Corey Brown (DB), Dorian Bell (LB)
4 stars: Braxton Miller, Steve Miller, Ryan Shazier, Michael Bennett, Corey Brown (WR), Carlos Hyde, Rod Smith, Andrew Norvell, C.J. Barnett, Jaamal Berry, Jordan Hall, Storm Klein, Corey Linsley, Jack Mewhort, Garrett Goebel, Travis Howard, Etienne Sabino, J.B. Shugarts, Jake Stoneburner, Andrew Sweat, Dominic Clarke, Duron Carter, Jermel Turner, Nate Williams, Jordan Whiting, Chris Fields, Melvin Fellows, Doran Grant, Marcus Hall, Lamaar Thomas, Will Mosley, Jamie Wood, James Jackson, James Louis, Taylor Graham, Nick Vannett, Kenny Hayes, Chase Farris, Brian Bobek
3 stars: Jonathin Hankins, John Simon, Joel Hale, Devn Smith, Evan Spencer, Tony Underwood, J.T. Moore, Verlon Reed, Brad Roby, T.Y. Williams, Orhian, Johnson, Adam Bellamy, Zach Boren, Reid Fragel, Ken Guiton, Adam Homan, Sam Longo, Jon Newsome, Nic Dilillo, Zach Dominicone, Jermel Martin, Shawntel Powell, Keith Wells, Tommy Brown, Chris Carter, Jeremy Cash, Conner Crowell, Derjuan Gambrell, Jeff Huerman, Cardale Jones, Ejuan Price, Ron Tanner, Darryl Baldwin, David Durham, Chad Hagan, Scott McVey.
2 stars: Bryce Haynes, Drew Basil, Adam Griffin
So...just glancing at this list, overall (on average) I can get further reading the 4 star list before the talent drops off than the three star. While I certainly realize that not all 4 star and 5 star recruits excel and that a decent # of three star recruits do, I am still excited by the potential of UFM recruiting elite talent, likely in the form of many more 4 star recruits with fewer 3 star recruits (though I know OSU will evaluate talent on their own..ex Jamal Marcus who they feel will excel in our system despite their "star" recruiting on websites). These are all just generalizations to try and give us some perspective about past vs. future.
To be fair Otrain, you listed a couple kickers as starting 3 stars. But kickers are always low star prospects. 3 stars is actually really good for them.
AJ Hawk, Laurinitis, T Smith, M. Jenkins were all 3 stars as well. And with them you've got the lombari award, butkus, heisman, thrope and many others as well as 1st team AA etc.
@BuckWhile
First off where did you see that Ohio state was ranked 11th last year. We were a top five class across the board!!!!!!!!!! Secondly, Simon was never a 3 star recruit!!!!
The star debate is an old one that never goes away. While there are always the examples of 5* busts and 3* successes, I'll go with Damon Runyan. "The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, but that is the way to bet."
Remington I believe he means the class of 2011 which would've been last years class containing Braxton Miller
Sorry Urban, Woody is still my favorite
Just to clarify I wasn't trying to rip your thread apart just to point out that we have had a chunk of 3 stars as solid contributers. I really like your post because its a cool discussion point. You can see already how picky Urban is being not only with talent but with other factors too that could be a distraction (Neal and his dad or w/e Urban didn't like he saw so we pulled his scholarship) (Diamond rumor was he was smoking weed on his visit so we stopped recruiting him). As far as talent goes I like how he is going after talent that fits his system instead of settling for guys and making them fit into the system. There's been several good examples of it this year.