Here we are, presented with the Penultimate CFP rankings. Let's compare one more time with what the BCS might have produced, courtesy of Wesley Colley.
http://www.colleyrankings.com/curBcsLike.html
BCS Rank | Team | BCS Average | CFP Rank | Record |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Alabama | 1.00000 | 1 | 12-0 |
2 | Ohio State | 0.95492 | 2 | 11-1 |
3 | Clemson | 0.90959 | 3 | 11-1 |
4 | Washington | 0.86288 | 4 | 11-1 |
5 | Michigan | 0.82649 | 5 | 10-2 |
6 | Wisconsin | 0.81080 | 6 | 10-2 |
7 | Oklahoma | 0.71419 | 9 | 9-2 |
8 | Penn State | 0.70854 | 7 | 10-2 |
9 | Colorado | 0.69206 | 8 | 10-2 |
10 | USC | 0.62159 | 11 | 9-3 |
Differences from the CFP: The committee does not respect Oklahoma, but that is the only glaring difference. Positions 7-9 in the BCS are within about 2 points, so those three teams are a toss up. The committee having Oklahoma at 9 isn't really much of an issue since the BCS has those 3 teams so close. Next we have USC at 10, who is 11 in the CFP. The CFP has Oklahoma State as their 10, despite being at 13 in the BCS with an average of 0.48225. With a 14 point difference, having Oklahoma State that high has been a consistent head scratcher the past few weeks with the committee. Clearly they see something that the computers don't, as the computers have them averaging about 20th, with human polls accounting for their position at 13 by putting them at 11 and 10 in the AP and Coaches polls.
Alabama and Ohio State are still your consensus 1 and 2, Clemson has established itself as a clear 3, and Washington is a clear 4. The committee says the line between Michigan and Washington is razor thin, but the BCS disagrees as 3.5 points separate them. Michigan and Wisconsin are actually closer, as only 1.6 points separate them. You can bet that a Wisconsin win would put them ahead of Michigan in the BCS.
We also have a clear drop off after #6, with 10 points separating Wisconsin from Oklahoma. It seems clear that Oklahoma, Penn State, and Colorado cannot rise to #4 by winning, which could pave the way for 3 B1G teams in the top 4 if Clemson and Washington lose. I sincerely doubt that the committee would put 3 teams from 1 conference into the playoff, but 2 is definitely an option, and I think Wisconsin has a better shot than Michigan. If chaos ensues this weekend, it's anyone's guess, though.
Final thought: Ohio State won, and we're in, no doubts whatsoever, no matter what happens this week. Book your tickets to Arizona today, folks.