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Question re 538 CFP Predictor

0 HS
LCT's picture
November 23, 2016 at 6:44am
31 Comments

If you go here and plug in a win for the good guys Saturday you learn that we have a "92 percent chance" of making CFP.  A loss drops us to 14 percent*.

How do Nate Silver & his crew assign numerical values to opinions of the likes of Condoleezza Rice and Barry Alvarez (which haven't been shared and nobody could possibly know at this point) to produce these scenarios?

What am I missing here?

*Two-loss, non-conference champ that finishes third in its division still has a "14 percent chance" at being declared one of the nation's top 4 teams???

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