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Michigan State underrated?

JakeStevensIsSwag's picture
July 22, 2014 at 4:35pm

This has probably been posted a while back when the odds were released, but Michigan State opens as a 13pt underdog against Oregon. I think this is absurd and i believe MSU wll beat Oregon.  What are your thoughts on this?

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KBonay's picture

I think they lost their core D and Oregon has a very powerful offense. So that spread seems about right..if I was a gambling man. 

+2 HS
bigDbuck's picture

The one thing that you will notice about Oregon is that they get exposed when playing a stout defense. See, OSU, Stanford, LSU, Bama etc... While I think MSU will be a good team, I like Mariota a lot. Probably Heisman front runner. Also away game for MSU.

+4 HS
Groveport Heisman's picture

Oregon very rarely loses at home. They return all 5 starters on their OLine and their Heisman(possible top 5 pick) hopeful QB. They are going to rack up some serious points on a very green MSU D.

Mark my words..I don't need acceptance. I'm catching interceptions on you innocent pedestrians.

+4 HS
Seattle Linga's picture

Correct and if MSU falls behind early by 14 points - I don't think they are built to come back on the road in that environment. Losing CB Darqueze Dennard was huge. He was a real player and will be for a long time in the NFL

JakeStevensIsSwag's picture

Who are Oregons Wide receivers? 

Buckeye fan from PA

+2 HS
GlueFingers Lavelli's picture

I think they have that Devon Allen kid, who is faster than hell. Bralon Addison is their primary playmaker. Keanon Lowe is a solid vet. I think the scheme is bigger than the talent in Oregon in most cases. They never have big time NFL caliber WR's but always produce. IMO the offense will go as well as RB's Tyner and Marshall go. If they can break the big runs to open things up for Mariota look out.

Dustin Fox was our leading tackler as a corner.... because his guy always caught the ball.

+2 HS
CTBuckeye's picture

Agree that the spread is way too large, but a game early in the season at night in Oregon is going to be tough for any team, let alone one that lost the heart of its defense, and is going up against a perennially strong offense.  If MSU can play a similar game as Stanford did against Oregon last year - control the pace of the game and contain/defend against the big plays, they'll be a lot closer than 13.  For the sake of the Big Ten's reputation I do hope they win though, plus it'll make the matchup with OSU that much bigger.

"Because we couldn't go for three"

+3 HS
GlueFingers Lavelli's picture

Yep, I would love for us to go into East Lansing facing an undefeated MSU squad under the lights and crush their dreams like they did to us in 98. 

Dustin Fox was our leading tackler as a corner.... because his guy always caught the ball.

+2 HS
TedGinnIsFasterThanYou's picture

Oregon, in recent history, has started out the season pretty much unstoppable on offense...until about November. Michigan State historically starts out lethargic and out of rhythm on offense...until about November. 

So, because this game is early, and in Eugene, I think Oregon outscores Sparty. If the game was later in the season though, I'd take Sparty.  

I hope I'm wrong though, and Sparty pulls off the upset. But, I'll say Oregon 34 MSU 20.

+4 HS
TBDBITLinWIScantSON's picture

Sparty lost to ND early in the year.

Here is how it will play out. Oregon will house Sparty. Sparty will improve. tOSU will beat Sparty and get no credit for doing so.


+6 HS
Hovenaut's picture

I think you just landed a job at the WWL...

+4 HS
InTressITrust's picture

No because he predicted OSU to win.  

"I'm not going to lie. We're anxious to be a part of a matchup like that. It's two states that love the game of football." -Jim Tressel

+4 HS
Kid Buckeye's picture

Spread may be too big if you buy into the saying that the defense is ahead of the offense early in the year. Oregon does have the better offense.

+1 HS
IGotAWoody's picture

I agree that the spread is too much. 7 pts seems about right to me, because Oregon's playing at home and MSU travels across several time zones. But as others have already pointed out, Sparty's style is kryptonite to Oregon's super-charged offense. AND, on the other side of the ball, MSU is very likely to be able to run and control the ball against the Ducks' D. If I were a gambler, I'd take Sparty and the 13 pts.

Of course, if I did actually place the bet, then Oregon would win by 20. Which is why I'm not a gambler.

“The good life is a process, not a state of being. It is a direction, not a destination.” ~Carl Rogers

PasadenaBuckeye626's picture

Michigan State is a good team, and I mean no disrespect, but I think Oregon will beat them.  Hard to beat Oregon at home

Go Bucks!

lljjgg's picture

It'll be interesting to see how MSU turns out this year. The Oregon game will be tough, but if they manage to win somehow, I'll be curious to see whether MSU can sustain it the rest of the year. They're a great underdog, chip on their shoulder kind of team. But being the front-runner/favorite and continuing to be successful is something else entirely. A different kind of challenge completely.

+1 HS
rock flag and eagle's picture

I think Oregon wins handily.  I keep reading in MSU season previews that the defense will break in a lot of new players but that's ok because the offense will be able to carry the load until the D gels.  That's not likely against Oregon.  Tell me, where will Michigan State's points come from?

First of all, Bollman is their OC.  Their offense will not be designed to carry the load.  Secondly, I think Connor Cook is very overrated (thanks to playing OSU and Stanford at the end of the season, two of the very worst passing offenses in the nation last season.) 

MSU's passing offense was ranked 84th in the country last year.  84th.  Sadly, MSU played some of the worst passing defenses in the nation last year: Indiana (120th), Ohio State (112th), Northwestern (101st), Stanford (98th), Illinois (82nd), and an FCS team.  And, even playing these defenses, MSU finished 84th in the nation.  Oregon had the 21st ranked pass D in the nation (37th ranked Defense Overall), and they were probably even better than that.  That's because Oregon played three top ten passing offense last year (Cal 10th, Wash. St. 4th and Oregon St. 3rd)  Despite playing teams that sling it everywhere, Oregon still finished with a top 20 level passing defense.  They have the best cornerback in the nation.  Connor Cook may have looked good against Stanford's 98th ranked pass D, but Oregon (at home) will present a much bigger challenge.

So, where will Sparty's points come from?  Not the passing game.  Do people really think Jeremy Langford and MSU's 59th ranked rushing offense is going to keep pace with Oregon?  MSU has to replace 3 starters from their Offensive line, and their run game wasn't that good anyway.  They were held below 4 yards/carry in 5 games last seasons.  Michigan State's rush offense won't be able to carry the day either.

Unless MSU gets 10pts or more off special teams and/or defense, I think Oregon wins comfortably.

TheNorthernBuckeye's picture

I think the 13 points is on the low side.  Oregon never loses at home and is loaded on offense.  MSU lost a strong core of their defense.  Darqueze and Bullough were the identity  of that team and both are gone.  Do I expect them to be solid again? Yes, but I have Oregon winning by 17+

Stay the course 

+2 HS
coolhand850's picture

Mariota is way overrated, just like his team is every year. I will take MSU and the 13 pts all day. Not only will Sparty cover, IMO they win convincingly, although the score will not be the complete proof of this. Oregon scores late, but still loses 27-24. I would not bet on either team winning by 13. I believe MSU wins, but it is a pick em spread with Oregon playing in Eugene.

+1 HS

Would not be surprised at all to see Narduzzi's D completely shut down Oregon. Sparty should be unbeaten when the Buckeyes play them as they should be (and we will need them to be).

"Sherman ran an option play right through the south" - Greatest Civil War analogy EVER.

whiskeyjuice's picture

I'm fine with because it will look that much better for the B1G if MSU can pull out the "V".

"Championships are not won on Saturdays in November. Championships are won on Tuesdays in August." -- Kerry Combs