So it looks like most experts have us sitting as a No. 5 seed right now. To me I think we are a 4 seed. So my question is if we beat Indiana and Illinois this week, what seed do you think we will be projected at after this week? I think prolly a 3.
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I think it will take more than this week to move OSU up to a 3 seed. Beating IU will be VERY tough. Beating Illinois at home is very doable.
I think OSU will need to have a good showing in the B1G tourney as well in order to move up.
You're right that beating IU will be very tough; however, if the Buckeyes beat IU and ILL, they would likely be a 3 seed regardless of what happens in the Big Ten tournament.
If the Buckeyes lose to IU, but beat ILL, they'd still need to make the Big Ten tournament championship game (Sunday) to be a 3 seed. At that point, it wouldn't matter if they won or lost that game, because the selection committee will already have the brackets ready (pending any spoilers that might auto-qualify on Sunday afternoon).
I think we need to win the BTT to be higher then a 4 Seed, just a very weak resume' going 2-7 or whatever it is vs the top 25 teams we've played
4-7 vs top 50 rpi........possibly 4-8 or 4-9 if we lose to indiana and then wisconsin in the btt
Check this out. Jerry Palm has us as a #7 seed playing Colorado in the first round. That seems a little bit low to me.
Yeah, I saw that too...and I let it anger me more than it should. So I looked at his Twitter and his logic was that "the tournament isn't played in Columbus."
They beat Michigan and Minnesota and dropped from a 6 to 7 in his bracket. It's like he decided "F it, the weatherman on TV never predicts the weather right and gets paid, I'm going to take that same attitude towards bracketology."
I've certainly heard of Palm, but not familiar with his work. I clicked on the link you provided and immediately lost interest in his opinions:
The RPI is a joke.
How much does the Selection Committee still rely on the RPI? Hopefully, at this point, they've realized it's 2013 and no longer use the silly RPI. If they rely on it, Palm might be right about the Buckeyes getting a bad seeding, but it doesn't make me think any more highly of his assessments on teams' strengths and weaknesses.
My friend emailed me about the 7 seed on cbssports.com and I asked him if he was looking at an old version of bracketology or something. I checked it out myself and almost laughed. He has New Mexico as a 2 seed. Who the hell is this guy. I say we are a 5 seed at worst.
Did you check out his bracket though? I don't even care about OSU being a 7 seed, we're in the same half bracket as Miami and UF, two teams that I think we matchup very well against. I wouldn't care if we were a 15 seed in that half bracket, I like the matchups we'd get.
Jerry Palm has us as a #5 seed now.
I don't care what our seed is as long as we go to Dayton and are in the Indy regional. Then the games will played in an environment of Columbus
I think they are good enough to be a #3 seed but may end up most likely as a #4. #5 is too low unless they lose both these next 2 games and also lose early in the B1G tourney.
If OSU wins both of these games and rolls to a B1G tourney win, they should be at least a #2 seed. That would be unreal and they deserve the credit for that one. 3 wins against top 5 opponents, B1G schedule and 23 regular season wins (I guess it would be 26 if they get a bye and win the whole thing). That is a lot for the committee to look at despite the weak non conference schedule.
Plus I think it does take into account that all of OSU's loses were to top 25 ranked teams, I think Illinois was ranked back then right? The 2 non conference loses were to Duke and Kansas and they were really blowouts. This team has hung with some good teams and lost late.
When its time, OSU will get credit for some really good things and will get a bump up. but I say #4 will be the seed when all is said and done.
#5 is definatley not too low, look at their body of work, its really bad this year. Explain what they have done to earn a top 3-4 seed. that 2-7 vs top 25 teams absolutley kills their chances at a top 3 seed. i think if they win the BTT they will get up that high but otherwise i just dont see it. a 2 seed? LOL lets be realistic here theres a less then 0% chance for that to happen
I think we are somewhere between 4-7. 7 is an actual possibility, but I would put money on 4-5.
As of right now they are 4th seed. Beat Indiana and Illinois and they could be a 1 or 2 With a deep run in the big ten tourney. Yes 1 or two. Big ten champion is a 1 seed.
Ohio States not getting a 1 or 2 seed no matter what they do
I'd actually disagree with that. If they win out, that would put their record at 26-7 with wins over Michigan, Michigan State, Wisconsin, and Indiana in the regular season, and then B1G tournament wins over 3 of those 4. That drastically changes their record against top 25-50 RPI teams, and gives them three high quality neutral floor wins.
If they win out, I see them as a definite 2. Unless all the other top teams flame out with a bad loss or two, I don't see a scenario where they get a 1 seed.
"What we do in life echoes in eternity"
No chance whatsoever at a top 2 seed. Who's Ohio State going to bump out of the top 2 seeds? its more then to just Ohio State winning, many more teams have a better resume even if Ohio State wins out
Right now Michigan and Michigan State are vying for #2 seeds. If OSU wins out, winning the B1G tournament (while quite possibly beating one or both of them in the process), the selection committee will have to look at the three teams against one another.
In the best conference in the country, if you essentially sweep the regular season and conference tournament championships, it puts you a step above others in your conference. Indiana's profile is still better than OSU's, but I'd argue that OSU's would look much better than Michigan and Michigan State.
Arizona is falling apart, New Mexico has good "peripheral" numbers, but hasn't beaten anyone of any real substance... Everyone in the 2-4 seed range has strengths and question marks in their profile. Ohio State having the backbone of B1G championships gives them a great leg to stand on during the selection committee discussions.
"What we do in life echoes in eternity"
"In the best conference in the country, if you essentially sweep the regular season and conference tournament championships, it puts you a step above others in your conference. Indiana's profile is still better than OSU's, but I'd argue that OSU's would look much better than Michigan and Michigan State."
Not when you're record is so poor vs the top talent (2-7) that matters the most
Michigan and MSU are solidly in for #2 seeds unless they lose out
But if OSU wins out, that 2-7 record against top 25 opponents quickly becomes 7-7. Losses to Kansas, Duke, Indiana, Michigan, and Michigan State are nothing to sneeze at, as well as a road loss to Wisconsin. The loss to Illinois does not look good no matter what they were ranked at the time.
If OSU wins out, their profile compared to MSU and Michigan won't be much different, at all (currently UM is 4-3 and MSU 4-6 against top 25 opponents). Plus, OSU would have either split with them or won the overall season record.
Michigan and Michigan State do have some other impressive wins over teams who are currently top 25-50 RPI not included in those numbers, but OSU does as well. The main difference is road/neutral wins versus OSU having virtually none. But again, that would change if OSU won the B1G tournament.
"What we do in life echoes in eternity"
Loses are still a big fat L no matter how you want to look at them and the committe see's it the same way. and the weak SOS kills them, they needed to at least split Duke/Kansas
Dude, after reading all your posts in this thread I'm not sure you're even a fan of this team. Our SOS is not weak. In the 3 ratings I could find we were 5, 17, and 22. Also being a bad team in a good conference helps your strength of schedule. Just look at Nebraska, Oklahoma, and USC in the rankings.
I've probably been a fan longer then you've been alive child. Just because i dont slobber on the Buckeyes like you think everybody in the universe should doesn't mean im not a fan, im just realistic. our SOS isn't weak but our wins are incredibly weak. someday you'll understand how the real world works and you might make an intelligent post once in a while but i doubt it.
That's a bit harsh. No need for name calling. No one is saying we're great but it seems you're being a but cynical. In calling our wins weak you're completely ignoring conference RPI. You can't tell me a win over Purdue isn't better than a win over TCU.
Not to belabor the point, but in my scenario Michigan would have at least 6 losses, and MSU at least 8. Not to mention Michigan would have a terribly bad loss to PSU.
I fine with saying we'll just agree to disagree on this. My scenario is unlikely anyway, as I do not see Ohio State running the table. But if they did, their SOS, wins over top 25-50 RPI opponents, etc. would match up with anyone in the country. The only lagging part of their profile would be road wins, which would be partially negated by the fact of winning in Bloomington tonight...
"What we do in life echoes in eternity"
So you are telling me the big ten champion would not get a 1 or 2 seed?
an Ohio State as B1G champ would not get a 1 Seed and depends on who else loses if they get a 2 seed, but no i dont see Ohio State getting a 1 seed and probably not a 2 seed with everyone else winning out as well since most tourniment champ games are played after the selections are made
Frankly I'm hoping they don't win the tournament.............It really hasn't helped us in the past
Battles are sometimes won by generals; wars are nearly always won by sergeants and privates. Football is no different, the guys down in the trenches win the games, not the coach.
How ya like me now?
In what universe did Selection sunday get moved to Wednesday march 6th? Just curious
We are set at a 4 seed and maybe could bump up to a 3 seed with a good week/run in the BTT. If we win out (which I don't see happening) we may get up to a 2 seed depending on what other teams do. What is crazy to me though is that the B1G could realistically have 4 of the top 12-16 seeds in the Tourney.
The way i see it right now Gonzaga, Indiana are probably locked into 1 spots, Georgetown, Kansas,Miami/Duke going for 2 out of the last 3
then you have 1 of those 3 teams as a 2, plus probably Michigan, Louisville locked in for 2 spots leaving MSU/Kansas St battling for the last 2 seed
a top 2 seed is a wet dream and a top 3 seed is probably out of the question with a loss to the Hooters
4 or 5
I think it has to be 3 or 4. Yes, our body of work isn't great but who is. To say we're a 5 means there are at least 16 teams better than us. Name me 16 more deserving teams.
Louisville, Georgetown, Indiana, Kansas, Kansas State, Michigan, Michigan State, Indiana, Duke, Miami, Gonzaga, Florida, Oklahoma State, Syracuse, Arizona, New Mexico.
I would disagree with k-state, ok state, and Arizona. Maybe even Syracuse.
I wouldn't. They have better resumes
Ok, I don't have time to break down all 3 so I'll go with K-State. Best win is over Florida. Not a bad win but I don't really think Florida is any better than OSU. 2nd best win is OK State. You already know how I feel about them. They have no other top 25 wins. They have a 14 point loss to TTUN. They also have a 16 point loss to Gonzaga. 2 losses to Kansas. Throw in a bad loss to Iowa State and it doesn't look very impressive.
Ohio State best win is Michigan, after that its Wisconsin , after that? nobody Throw in a bad loss to Illinois and Ohio State doesn't look impressive. Florida doesn't have to be better then OSU they just have to be better then OSUs top wins which they are.
Michigan State?
Edit: I wouldn't call Illinois on the road a bad loss. They're a solid tournament team.
So wait you call a 20 win Iowa State team a bad loss but not a 21 win illinois team? Doesn't make sense
Like I said in my other post, Big 12 wins are not equal to Big 10 wins. We actually have 3 ranked wins compared to their 2. The fact that they're in a weaker conference only furthers the gap.
this guy is smoking too many swisher sweets...if you know what i mean.
I'd agree with Louisville, Georgetown, Indiana, Kansas, Duke, Miami, Gonzaga, and Florida - 8 of the
1615 teams that you mentioned (you put in Indiana twice).Class of 2010.
Georgetown is just like us. they have one good scorer in Porter and really nobody else
4 to 5 seems about right as of now. Hopefully a run to the Big Ten tournament final could push the Buckeyes to a 3 seed.
I'd rather be a 6 seed than a 4 or 5.
I agree.
My hope is OSU shows well these last two weeks and finds itself as a 3 seed. Otherwise, I think you are better off falling back to a 6 seed so you avoid the #1 seed in the Sweet Sixteen.
There are a lot of "questionable" #3-seed type teams this year. Arizona, New Mexico, Kansas St, Michigan, Michigan St, Florida, Syracuse, Marquette... all are lumped into that possible 2-4 seed range, and none should really scare anyone. I'd much rather see Ohio State take on one of these teams in the round of 16 than a #1 seed.
"What we do in life echoes in eternity"
And that was exactly my unstated thought. There's no clear cut top team this year, but I do think that there are about 4-6 teams that are extremely good and would beat OSU 8 out of 10. After that, I think there's about 10-12 teams that could go 5-10 +/- a game against each other. Not even so much our seed, but the teams in our bracket will matter this year. I'd love the #4/5 seed in the bracket with Gonzaga as #1. I'd also love the bracket with New Mexico and UF as #2 / #3 and us the #6. I want to avoid Duke, Indiana, Kansas, Louisville and Syracuse at all costs.
Why would you want to avoid duke? We proved we could play with them and should have beaten them, while they had ryan kelly. So it's not like they weren't at full strength and that's why we almost won. The game was also at Cameron indoor and I doubt we shoot as bad as we did then
I see Duke as a pretty complete team with Kelly back and I think they got better than we did throughout the course of the year. I think they have both a post presence and a perimeter game. I just don't like matching back up against them.
Let's see how tonight goes. There is still so much more basketball left to be played and a lot could happen. If we win out as well as the tournament, we could be a #1 seed. If we lose out, we could be a 6-7 seed. Way too much Variability right now
We're not gonna be a 1 seed
I would think if we win out, beat the #2 team tonight, as well as potentially 2 more top 10 teams in the B1G tourny, I would find it very likely have us as a #1 seed. Agree that's a big IF right now
Seeding is largely irrelevant; it's all about the draw. I would love for things to shake out like Lunardi is currently predicting on espn.com:
Arizona is terrible (I live in phx so i watch quite a bit of pac12 hoops). Our physical guard play would make us a nightmare matchup for Gonzaga. There is a reasonable final four chance with this draw. I'd take this over a 2 seed in IU, Duke, or KU's region all day long.
the kids are playing their tail off, and the coaches are screwing it up! - JLS
That would be a great bracket for us. Did you look at the bracket where we're a 7 seed? Also looks pretty good to me. I'd take either of those.
I did see it. I love the matchup with Colorado in the first round (frankly if we get in a pod with a pac12 team, I will be overjoyed). Not sure what to make out of a matchup with Miami. I could see our defense frustrating them, but i could also see their athleticism causing us problems. That one would just depend on whose style dictated the game. Just love this time of year
the kids are playing their tail off, and the coaches are screwing it up! - JLS
Yes, the Miami game would be challenging, but watching Miami, they really need dribble penetration to get going and think that's where we'd have the biggest advantage in the matchup. I think a defensive rotation of Craft, Smith, Thompson, and Scott would limit them. Also you saw how Ryan Kelly, used much like we could use DT, faired against them - DT is the exact matchup that Duke used to beat Miami. They do have some athletic big guys, but I have noticed that they play better against athletic counterparts. Could it be that immobility of our big could be to our benefit? Maybe. Miami's big guys don't like defenders that stand tall with hands up, they don't finish well here.
That would be a very favorable bracket
I don't know how we would match up with Gonzaga, Olynyk strkes me as one of those annoying players that would score at will against us. Everyone else in that bracket is certainly beatable though
I saw that too and would love this scenario for a path to the Final Four. None of these teams really fear me.
I know what you meant to say, but I don't think any teams fear you.
Gonzaga would be a tough team to play, Harris and Olynyk would eat Thomas/Williams/Ravenel alive.
Not saying they wouldn't be tough, but I think without a doubt Gonzaga is our best chance of beating a 1 seed - our physical superiority on the perimeter would at least give us a chance to negate our less than stellar bigs.
the kids are playing their tail off, and the coaches are screwing it up! - JLS
and their inside presence superiority would give them an even bigger chance to win.
Not saying they're not better than us or wouldn't be favored. I'm saying we'd have (a) a decent chance of winning and (b) better chance of beating them than we would IU, Duke, or Kansas. Those three teams are matchup nightmares on the perimeter AND down low.
the kids are playing their tail off, and the coaches are screwing it up! - JLS
Gonzaga is a tougher matchup then Kansas or Duke and thats not even in question
Actually I thought that was exactly what was in question, at least part of it. Given their 72nd ranked sos, I would prefer to play Gonzaga over Duke and Kansas, both teams that have already beaten us. Also keep in mind, the point not only is that Gonzaga is probably going to be the weakest #1 seed, but also, and more importantly, which team will OSU match up against in the second round if they win the first round. I'd be happy with making it to the Sweet 16 this year. I'd also be disappointed with losing in the second round.
Sorry, this ranks as one of the dumber comments I've seen on 11W lately.
yeah i was going to keep arguing but not worth it
the kids are playing their tail off, and the coaches are screwing it up! - JLS
I would be okay with a 4 or a 6 seed, but not a 5. We all know the 5-12 game is one of the great mysteries of the NCAA tournament, and I for one don't want to become the next chapter in that story. Whatever seed the buckeyes end up with is fine with me, and I certainly wouldn't want us to lose just to get a certain seed (not that anyone has said that, just saying).
I don't know why but I think I prefer for this team to get a 4-6 seed, maybe a 3. I think they'll fare better there than if they somehow boost their way up to a 2 which I highly doubt will even come close to happening anyways
If we avoid having Indiana, KU, Duke, and Wisconsin in our bracket then I'll be very happy
Had to dig pretty deep for some reason to find this (maybe i just suck at google), but good call on the 5 and 6's: 5 and 6 seeds have the exact same first round record through 2012: 74-38. The win % distribution looks like this:
1 seed: 100%
2 seed: 95%
3: 86%
4: 79%
5: 66%
6: 66%
7: 60%
8: 48%
The dropoff from the 4 seed to the 5 seed is interesting. I think it's mostly due to the fact that 13 seeds are usually the best of the lower conference champs, and the 11 and 12 seeds are usually the majors that snuck in (some of them riding hot streaks just to make it in, giving them a higher chance of an upset).
the kids are playing their tail off, and the coaches are screwing it up! - JLS
yikes, after seeing that, 3 or 4 seed please!!
If OSU is going to get a 3, they'll have to beat Indiana, Illinois, and win at least 1 game in the B1G tourney. Or, if they lose close to Indiana, they'll need to beat Illinois and win the B1G tourney. My money is on OSU as a 4.
Class of 2010.
Where is that money now? Did you and the refs take the Hoosiers tonight?
OSU wins the B1G tourney they're a No. 3 seed. We beat Illinois and win 2 B1G tourney games but lose in the title game we're a 4. We'd have to lose to Illinois and lose our B1G tourney opener to drop to a 5. IMHO. Grabbing a share of the Big Ten regular season title will help for sure. The tournament title automatic berth will be a bigger help.
"Sherman ran an option play right through the south" - Greatest.Civil.War.Analogy.Ever
Lunardi has Ohio State as the last 3 Seed in the south, Going by his top 44 spots this is how it works out if i did it right
1 Georgetown
2 Michigan
3 Ohio State
4 Oklahoma St
5 Pittsburgh
6 Oregon
7 Butler
8 SDSU
9 Cal
10 Oklahoma
11 Middle Tenn
I dont think we could ask for an easier run
If that ends up being our bracket I would go crazy. That has to be the easiest bracket hands down.
never count out brad stevens and butler
I'm not worried about the seeding now. After last night, this team can play with anyone, and as they've shown earlier, can lose/get blown out to anyone who is semi-good
If OSU is feeling it, then another FF could be in the making. If Kemba and Uconn can do it, so can OSU
I think at this point with the win at Indiana, if they win against Illinois and win at least 1 or 2 games in the BTT they are a 3 seed. Lose to Illinois and they are a 4. Win out and a 2 seed is possible. 1 is out for sure in my opinion and so is anything worse than a 5.
I'd put the percentages as this.
1 seed: 0%
2 seed: 15%
3 seed: 50%
4 seed 30%
5 seed 5%
I'm gonna disagree with a 0% on the 1 seed. had this discussion with some of my buddies today. If we are to win the B1G tourney, that would mean we would beat 2 out of the 4 of Wisc, IU, UM, and MSU(assuming they do not get upset). That would give us possibly 2 more top ten wins. Also, if Gonzaga loses any games, they will not get a #1. That and the way this season has turned out, you cant say there wont be another big upset in the coming week or the conf tournaments. I think whoever wins the B1G tourney, as long as its OSU, IU, MSU, or UM, gets a 1 seed. Obviously i think OSU has a long shot to get one and I am not going to hold my breath for one, but I don't believe it is completely out of the realm of possibilities. With that, I am betting one a 2/3 seed, leaning towards a 3(i think IU wins the tourney), as are you.
5 seed is definatley not out. a loss to illinois and 1st round of BTT puts Ohio State close to if not a 5 spot