Eleven Warriors

PHONE'S RINGING -- IT'S URBAN ON THE LINE

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Joe Lunardi, why do they keep asking him ?

His top 4 seeds and last 4 in/last 4 out, change every SportsCenter segment they feature him(his opinions) in. He changes at least 4 times a day, with 10 days left till the tournament, he will probably hem-haw, on who his picks 40 more times before it's over. Does ESPN just feel the need to attach random college basketball tournament prognostication to a name/face, or do they think he is an expert?

BuckeyeBoyer85 on 7 Mar 2013 - 5:51pm #

Also, ESPN seems to keep pushing BPI ratings like it's the truth. Hell, I couldn't even find out what it was. I know I wouldn't understand the formulas but at least make them available like Pomeroy. ESPN always has some ulterior motives.

Wayne Woodrow Hayes

d5k on 7 Mar 2013 - 5:59pm #

Wouldn't be surprised if they patented certain advanced metrics that they came up with when really it is like patenting simple arithmetic. The formulas themselves are not complicated, it is the techniques used to prove that a correlation exists between better ranking in the formula and success on the court/field/whatever. i.e. fitting the model.

UrbanCulture on 7 Mar 2013 - 5:51pm #

I mean, pretty much every game at this point effects the tournament outlook. He is usually pretty spot on.

johnblairgobucks on 7 Mar 2013 - 6:25pm #

spot on, and changing your mind 30 times in 10 days, about an event that hasn't happened yet, do not seem to mesh.

UrbanCulture on 7 Mar 2013 - 7:37pm #

the point I'm trying to make is that Lunardi has proven over the years that he knows what he is talking about when it comes to the NCAA Tourney. He predicted all of the teams right in 2008 if I recall correctly and only misses on one or two practically every other year. Him "changing is mind" is merely an important game having an impact on how the field would look immediately after the game being played. Now that a lot of important games are happening, the whole landscape of the tourney can change in a matter of hours. Its not Lunardi having second thoughts or anything, things change over the course of the day.

jeremytwoface on 7 Mar 2013 - 7:58pm #

Does he know what he is talking about, or is he using his all powerful ESPN status to influence the selection committee?!?!?!

I'm just kidding of course.

Baroclinicity on 7 Mar 2013 - 7:59pm #

I think UC here has got it right. I think Lunardi does a pretty good job.

d5k on 7 Mar 2013 - 5:56pm #

The point is that it shouldn't have as much of an impact as he suggests. 1 game out of 30 shouldn't change a team's position on the S curve by more than a couple spots but it does tend to in reality it seems which is all he is trying to predict.

CincyOSU on 7 Mar 2013 - 6:14pm #

At this point of the season, YES, every game matters especially with regards to seeding and those on the bubble. All "experts" change their projections on a nightly basis. I see nothing wrong with it, this is part of what makes the tournament so special.

sb97 on 7 Mar 2013 - 7:17pm #

Upvote because you hit the nail on the head. This is one of the most exciting years in College Basketball that I can remember in a long time. Part of what made it so special is that seemingly every night there was a major shake up amongst ranked teams. You really just didn't know what to expect.

Jhesse17 on 7 Mar 2013 - 8:07pm #

They keep asking him because he has a history of being better at predicting touney teams than anyone else on the planet.

johnblairgobucks on 7 Mar 2013 - 8:37pm #

history of being right? he's had the AP top 10 as number 1 seeds at different part of his predictions. Hard to call him wrong, when he lays out so many scenarios. If the landscape changes so frequently the final 4 weeks of the season, why does his opinion 10 days out carry enough weight to matter? Bracketologist or random blowhard?

Sunday before the selection process, is when it counts.

Baroclinicity on 7 Mar 2013 - 9:04pm #

Sunday before the selection process, is when it counts.

And he nails it then...

johnblairgobucks on 7 Mar 2013 - 9:21pm #

Ehhh. Not trying to be a huge dork (lacking success), about this, I know I should just tune it out. However I'm remodeling my basement, drywall and plumbing, and have the boob tube on (also fiending for some March basketball) and the wife and I can't get over how ESPN's own Joe Lunardi has 5% of his material come to fruition (kind of of like Buster Olney's MLB trade deadline deals .... though those are hovering around .05% correct), but the network cycles their whims as if they were set in stone.

CincyOSU on 7 Mar 2013 - 9:09pm #

Umm....have you seen how many times the top 10 has changed this year? Hell, we have had what, 6 different #1 teams. If you understood how fluid this process is you wouldn't getting so worked up about someone who is HIGHLY respected in what he does.

Why is he making projections this early??? The same reason we have preseason polls...people want something to talk about.l

UrbanCulture on 7 Mar 2013 - 9:11pm #

He most likely would have been right if the tourney would have started THE MINUTE AFTER he posted one of his brackets. With Lunardi, it is not like he is laying out a bunch of different scenarios for the tourney. Each bracket he produces is his guess as to what the field would look like if the tourney started the minute of the production. Any time an important game happens after the production, the tourney field will obviously change, and he fixes his bracket to account for that change. The fact that there have been 10 different number one seeds according to him is just a testament to how crazy this year of college basketball has been. The bracketology is a way for fans to gage where their team stands for the NCAA tourney. It also can produce more media hype/excitement if there is a late season game between to "Last 4 in" or "First four out" teams. I think giving the fans a pretty accurate depiction of where their team stands is nothing but good for college basketball.