I recentlly read an opinionated diatribe that Sam Thompson has a ceiling at OSU. My personal opinion is he is being held back and has a beautiful jumper and the potential to have an elite hoops career at OSU. He is the ultimate team player and has taken a back seat to the bigger personalities on the current club. I predict he will have a huge impact on the final three BIG ten regular season games and the tournament. And with the right nudge in confidence, will be the X factor in our 2013 post season run. First time poster and I welcome your opinions?!
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No. He has a terrible jumpshot. About the only thing he can do is jump and defend, although at times he loses his man on defense. He attempts 5.7 FGs a game, and makes 2.7 a game. So essentially he makes his dunks and misses his jumpshots. Future of the team? No. Athletic defender? Yes.
I wouldn't call his jumpshot terrible. I'm not a basketball expert, but he seems to have a nice shot and he has hit a decent percentage of the open 3's he's taken. I would rather him take an open jumper than Craft right now, though I know that's not saying a ton.
If he continues developing and gains more confidence, then teams will have to play him a bit more straight up instead of playing off him, perhaps allowing him opportunities to drive and use his athleticism more in future years.
Ummmmm you realize that that works out to about 47.4% shooting right? And you understand that that is an exceptional shooting percentage for a non-big right? Plus, look at the vast improvement his jumper has gone through in just a year. Although his total FG% is about the same, 49% to 47%, his 3 point percentage went from 7.1% to 32.4%. His freethrow shooting also went from 54.5% to 68.8%. These are huge improvements, and if he continues to improve his skills to match his athletic talent he is going to be a very special player.
I will continue to litter this site with this link:
http://grfx.cstv.com/photos/schools/osu/sports/m-baskbl/auto_pdf/2012-13...
Sam Thompson's "terrible" jump shot has put him 4% better as a FG shooter than DT as of 2/24.
I think anyone can find the basic stats for the team... at least research some more meaningful metrics if you are going to "litter this site". If FG% was predictive of offensive efficiency then every team would field 5 Dallas Lauderdales or Tyson Chandlers (NBA).
But without that caveat, Sam doesn't have a ceiling at OSU. His jumper will improve, but I don't think he needs a jumper. He just needs to get better at finishing around the rim in traffic off the bounce. He can get to the rim easily and elevate but he throws a lot of layup bricks when he does so, hence his relatively low FG% given the % of shots he takes in the paint (See how I qualified where the shots were taken when I talk about FG%?).
I brought forth concrete numbers and you can't get around them without situational hand-waiving arguments. I understand your point, but you don't have the data on hand to back your statements up.
We've talked about this before, and its unfortunate that you're the only person that seems to respond to me when I post this because I don't in fact continue to post it to get under your skin. My continual posting of this link is far outnumbered by the "Scott / Smith / Thompson can't shoot" and "LaQuinton is a great shooter" posts. I'm merely trying to call everyone's attention to the other side of this opinion.
Unfortunately there's not a lot of shot-chart data for college basketball as far as I know. And I don't pay the $20 to subscribe to kenpom so I don't get his player-level detailed data. But in general FG% is far from enough to tell you hardly anything about shooting ability. 3P% tells you a little bit more for jump shooting but only if they are a frequent enough shooter (both in raw sample size and as a % of their FG attempts).
Usage % is the first test to see if they just have a higher % because they mainly get wide open type looks. Since Deshaun's usage % (it is within your numbers I just haven't calculated it) is probably double anyone else's on the team besides maybe Craft that can explain why his FG% isn't as high in particular. In other words we shouldn't run our offense through Sam Thompson or Lenzelle Smith, although I don't think that was your conclusion. But if you went purely with FG% you might end up saying that.
As a sidenote to the above about Usage rate, this also explains why Deshaun's %'s fell from last year to this year and why William Buford's fell from junior to senior year. Essentially if you are the focal point of the offense you will have lower %'s than if you are the #2-#5 threat with all else being equal (it never is in reality but we can talk about it abstractly).
Any idea how to get usage %? Would be interesting to see those numbers.
And you're correct, I'm not saying that the offense should be run through Thompson or Smith, just saying that they aren't as bad as some think. And to a more minor extent, DT and Ross aren't as good. But, of course, with the game on the line, I'd want DT taking the shot, provided that it's a decent look.
I would agree with Thompson/Smith being a little underrated offensively and Ross being overrated and the numbers support that. But most of the rational fans are viewing Ross through the lens of potential and realizing if he gets more comfortable in the offense, the shooting numbers could improve dramatically since he has the skill set. I would disagree that DT isn't as good as some think. If anything I think he is remarkably efficient for being a one man show on offense. He isn't getting the ball in as many favorable spots as last year obviously but he is still putting the ball in the basket. And the reason guys like Lenzelle get decent looks at the basket is helped a lot by the attention DT gets.
Usg%
Usage Percentage (available since the 1977-78 season in the NBA); the formula is 100 * ((FGA + 0.44 * FTA + TOV) * (Tm MP / 5)) / (MP * (Tm FGA + 0.44 * Tm FTA + Tm TOV)). Usage percentage is an estimate of the percentage of team plays used by a player while he was on the floor.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/glossary.html
And apparently there are accessible advanced stats for CBB:
http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/ohio-state/2013.html
Scroll down to advanced section. Kinda funny that the limited sample size of Amedeo at the end of games shows him to be the 2nd most efficient player on the team (this is how not to use statistics lol). He has rebounded and blocked shots almost as well as Amir on a % basis :).
If Gerald Green and Michael Redd can learn how to shoot 3s at a proficient to excellent level, so can Slam. It's not like he's got a hitch in his shot like Craft or has a wrist that spontaneously dislocates like Ben Wallace. I'd be more concerned with his dribbling skills than his jump shot going forward.
Still think Thompson's jump-shot is terrible? He's looked pretty good lately from the outside (as good as anyone we have) and at Indiana...and he's still just a soph.
D. Anthony
if he can work on his ball handling/looking up when he dribbles/look for his shot a little more, it wouldnt surprise me if he made a huge jump.
His jumper looks prettier than craft, zelle and scott. I think he has the potential to be like evan turner. Not as good, but by senior year averaging close to a double-double each game along with 5 assists
He has a picture perfect jumper. We will lean on him next year and I hope Matta turns him loose this year to prepare him for the vacuum left when D Thomas leaves. I don't care about statistics, I watch every game.
Go8uck5!
^THIS
"We hate to lose, but when we do, rest assured we'll be back, and someone will pay the price." Coach Hayes
Agree with OP, I think he has an underrated jumper.
I do however feel like he avoids contact at all cost. He doesn't seem to like to get in and bang around on the glass. If he wanted to be a great rebounder I think he could be a great rebounder right now with those ridiculous hops. But you have to be willing to get in and mix it up a bit.
Future College Slam Dunk Champion...
If you know basketball you know his mechanics on his jump shot are actually very good...and he already shoots better from the outside than our guards. He's very raw still because he didn't get the minutes he should have as a freshman...so he's still basically a freshman...over the next 2 years he will become a much more complete player and a star.
D. Anthony
Sam could be a special player next year. His jumper is much better than last year. He needs 8-10 more lbs., and I'm hoping that he can spend some gym time with Michael Redd this offseason. It wouldn't surprise me to see Slammy make a developmental jump similar to Oladipo's.
needs to be more AGRESSIVE.
This. 90% of this thread talks about his jumper but if he just goes to the rim with reckless abandon (and learns to finish when doing so) he can be an all-american. He isn't just a high riser, he also has a really fast first step. The Oladipo comparisons are reasonable but he is more of a wing with his ridiculous length that would be tough for a bigger guy to keep in front and he should be able to finish over anyone his size or smaller easily.
Good points as usual, D5K.
At a minimum, I'm hoping that Thompson can develop somewhat along the lines of how Jason Singleton played.
Singleton, who was fast and very athletic, finished well and aggressively at the rim, but also had a good jump shot, too, when defenders played off him.
Thompson probably has an even higher upside than Singleton, though.
Did anyone catch Sam's close-up on Big Ten's The Journey episode on Sunday? I thought it was pretty cool, and it provided a nice flashback of last years slam in Indiana. He seems like a confident guy though and I agree, I expect big things from Sam when he's an upperclassman.
I think of all the guys on the team, Sam is the most likely to be a good NBA player six years from now, that includes DT. Craft, Q, Amir and Scott all have a chance, but if I was a GM, I would choose Sam because of his unlimited potential, and worst case he's an athletic wing who can defend. Not hating on anyone, would love to see DT find a niche in the league the way Redd did.
Sam has picked it up more although he really should be more aggressive with his shooting. He gets open so easily with 1 single move that he should shoot more. I think he can be very good in the mid range game and should learn DT's little power hook. He would be unstoppable if he could perfect that. He already does have a nicer 3 than all of the guards and is probably just under DT and Ross when it comes to ability to score. He just doesn't take advantage!
I am very high on Thompson and really think if Matta was willing, move him to a nice tall lanky SG and put Ross at the 3. With Ross, Thompson and DT, there should be no reason someone couldn't score if everyone had the green light like DT does.
It is funny how people underestimate his shot. They think since he doesn't take it very much that he is horrible. Also, he used to do that little baseline floater that was AWFUL! It was the shot that was actually hurting his FG%. He has effectively stopped that shot and even when he does find himself in that position, goes all the way now. He currently has a FG% under only the 3 Bigs (Amir, Ravs and even McD). His FT% still needs work but at least he does have a nice shot and it will eventually fall.
Just think about it, who would you prefer to shoot? Scott, LSjr or Thompson? I would take Thompson any day. Yet Scott becomes the "one man show" early in the second half VERY OFTEN. Lenzelle is so hot and cold, he could make 5 3's in a row and then go completely cold. At least Thompson has figured out that if his shot doesn't fall, go to the rim.
Good point about the floater. I have seen plays where he jumps almost at the free throw line tentatively when he could take 1 more power step and get all the way to the rim uncontested. If he just stops worrying about making a mistake and plays aggressive good things will happen. The worst thing that could happen is he commits some charges when goign to the rim. Most likely he would get fouled more than commit charges due to his quickness and I doubt his layups ever get blocked if he is going strong to the rim due to his length and elevation.
I see Sam as more of an Andre Iguodala type player than someone who we should worry about improving his jumper. He just needs some more muscle and to play ultra-aggressive on both ends.
I think Sam,Shannon and Q all have great potential.
Sam makes me mad. He is so athletic and could get in the paint at will, but chooses not to. I'm baffled by it. And sometimes when he gets in the middle of the lane he won't shoot! He will dribble it back out to the 3 and give it to craft or scott. He should shoot any time he gets in the paint. I don't know what he is afraid of he isn't going to get blocked
A lot of it seems to be confidence. He seems to be the type who remembers the misses more than the makes, sort of an anti-DT.
I don't see why there wouldn't be confidence. We have always been told that Thad is the type of coach who let's his players play freely so he shouldn't be scared to shoot because of a missed shot
Is he afraid to shoot or is he playing his role. I wouldn't put it past him to fall in line and make sure to take shots within the flow of the offense (I know that is an oxymoron but still). It would be nice if he got hot and they kept feeding him but I am sure his light is not fully green.
I aslo recognize this quite often, Matta seems to have this horrible habit of pulling guys out when they get hot or calls a timeout. Against MSU last Sunday, Amir gets that huge steal and then dunk at the beginning of that huge second half run and Matta calls a timeout and sits him. that was the worst time to do it and really probably should have happened way before then, but not once the guy gets hot. Same thing with Craft and Lenzelle playing lockdown defense. They get a rhythm that starts taking over games and what does he do, brings in Scott for his one man show! I think Matta is playing his rotations fine, just not at the right times. He tends to kill momentum sometimes.
Its because he struggles with a dribble drive. If he learns to dribble better the sky is the limit
His shot will keep improving. I'm hoping he works on handling the ball the entire off season (and gains 10 -15 pounds). He tends to rely on a straight first step to the bucket when he has the ball, so if he could develop a spin or a little misdirection with the dribble, it might give him the confidence to become more aggressive and creative with the ball.
If i could upvote you i would. You are 100% correct about the ball handling and getting that first step correct. His inability to dribble drive is what holds him back
>Shoots 32% from three
>68% from the free throw line
MFW Sam Thompson is a good shooter.
I don't think anyone here said he was a good shooter. I think we are pointing out that he has a good shot. and is getting better too. The worst shot he used to take were the baseline one-handed jumpers. He doesn't do those anymore and since then, he has been a much better shooter, not good, than he used to be.
I will say though he is a better shooter than Scott and Lenzelle. Despite whatever the stats say.
Lenzelle has enough of a sample size that we can call him at least an above average 3 point shooter. Scott and Thompson both have a ways to go although Thompson has looked more comfortable shooting lately.
I was surprised to see that Pomeroy has Ohio State's (adjusted) offensive rating at 17th in the country. According to him, Ohio State has played the 14th toughest schedule overall and against the 7th toughest slate of defensive opponents.
It will be interesting to see what guys like Thompson, Ross, and Q do in the first two rounds of the NCAA tournament. Maybe they'll get a 12 seed opponent in the 1R, like Belmont, Akron, etc., teams that can play but won't suffocate your offense like a Wisconsin, Indiana, or MSU. Then, maybe they play a good team in the 2R like a Colorado State or Creighton, that can light up the scoreboard but also doesn't play nasty D.
In those games, we might see some offensive flashes from Thompson that will foreshadow what he'll do more regularly next season . . .
We were #1 offensive efficiency 2 years ago and #1 defensive efficiency a year ago. So we have high expectations. Also, we don't pass the eye test but overall we do well by getting some easy buckets in transition and not turning the ball over. Add in Deshaun's beastly play and guys just not taking bad shots (they don't create good shots for themselves like Deshaun but they pass up the terrible shots that lots of poorly coached teams take) and you have a good offensive team. We should be a top 5 defensive team but we have some breakdowns in areas occasionally. Especially giving up offensive rebounds.
I agree that we might see softer defenses in the tournament than we have in conference all year. Wisconsin is a very good defensive team this year.
The jumper form is there. More shots will drop with time. It's not like we haven't had the opportunity for a 2nd scorer this year so there's still an element missing that I can't put my finger on ... How we use him offensively, movement away from the ball, etc. all I know is Scott shouldn't be shooting from the outside at all, and Lenzelle seems to shoot too much ... At least too much from outside, seemingly way early in our possession. Thompson is by far the most promising looking Soph. All I know is he and Q need big strides before next year and we will need some Frosh ready to play.
The thing I see that most of you guys have left out is his dribbling. If he could learn how to utilize a good dribble to get to the hole, he could be deadly. Right now that would be the thing i worked with him most
I am now a Sam Thompson believer.
He needs to learn how to finish close to the basket besides a dunk before we can start calling him the future. I don't know how many missed layups he has on the season, or shots within 2 feet, but it's a lot. But his jumpshot is looking nice.
I'm not calling him the future just yet, but you are starting to see his confidence increase and his potential is through the roof...much like his dunks.
it's true that if he had better handles and could dribble, drive to attack the rim he'd be really tough...especially as defenders start having to come out at him to guard against an increasingly better jump-shot.
D. Anthony
Super Athletic with improving jump shot
needs to work on his ball handling and penetration game
will be a force next year 14ppg+
I'm a friend of thunder is it any wonder lightning strikes me
If the dude could just dribble the damn ball he would be all world! He needs to work on finishing around the rim (which is surprising with his leaping ability) and his jumper is starting to get better so sky's the limit IMO just have to see a few things develop for him.
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