PHONE'S RINGING -- IT'S URBAN ON THE LINE
•Football Schedule•Basketball Schedule•Forum•About•ContactI read an interesting article from Tomahawk Nation which collected several popular expansion bloggers in one place where they each gave their opinions round table style on what they think will be happening next.
http://www.tomahawknation.com/2013/2/22/4019522/realignment-rumor-mill-guest-star-edition
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Yep, a good read! Seems like a varying degree of opinion about UNC, FSU, and Duke, with some thinking those schools will end in the conference their blogs are tied too, imagine that. I tend to agree with the talking point about ESPN stepping in with more money for the ACC, so to block Fox's and BTN growth, may be the only thing that saves that conference, otherwise the core schools will leave and grasp onto the most stable conferences, namely the B1G and SEC. So anybody's guess at this point!
BamBamBuck
That was interesting. Good post Buckeyeneer. Could we see the B2G?
An angry fan...rooting for an angry team...led by angry coaches
meh.
those are popular bloggers but not insiders on expansion other than Mr.SEC. Their insight is no greater than yours or mine. moving along.....
Yeah, I agree. I don't think the conferences know what they want, let alone bloggers. I'm sure there are some conversations going on in these conference headquarters, but it seems to me that most realignment decisions are pretty knee-jerk in nature (i.e., the opposite of the grand scheming these bloggers seem to think is taking place). My opinion on realignment news is that we (the general public) will have the hard facts of a move taking place around the same time as Internet bloggers.
"Sometimes you eat the bear and sometimes the bear eats you."
While Mr. SEC brings great logic as well as some insider information and his posters bring a good solid conversation, I tend to follow Frank the Tank and that group of folks.
BamBamBuck
Very good read. Thanks for linking.
Eh, I'm of belief ESPN will do anything in its power to preserve the status quo for the SEC, at least for football. Why would it personally get involved and save the ACC? To save basketball? Doing that would contradict its SEC football stance. I think we can all agree that football money far outweighs any tradition in basketball (as the destruction of the Big East hoops conference just showed).
Never heard of any of these bloggers before. I trust 11W staff to keep me informed much more than those people.
"Sherman ran an option play right through the south" - Greatest.Civil.War.Analogy.Ever
ESPN would want to block growth as much as possible due loss of product to both Fox and partner BTN. If the B1G poaches the core of the ACC (UNC, GT, FSU) it becomes stronger, the BTN has more TV's to force the cable provides to offer as a basic package, both of which are negatives for ESPN. The SEC also wants UNC and Duke so to expand into that market for their soon to be released TV network, but more importantly they want to keep the B1G out of SEC territory, namely Florida and the rest of the south for that same reason.
BamBamBuck
Not necessarily. ABC/ESPN actually has a TV deal with both the ACC and the B1G. It may be in ESPN's best interest for a TV deal to actually allow the B1G to become even larger when the deal expires in 2016. But it is ESPN that carries the big games of the B1G, not the BTN. Michigan -OSU were on ESPN while OSU-Indiana was on the BTN. ESPN gets the bigger games, typically.
So to counter the SEC/CBS/Fox maybe to form a mega TV deal with the B1G and ACC when all is said and done.
It is very convenient that the expiration of the TV deal is 2016 while the next round of expansion is likely set for the 2015-2016 academic year. All parties involved know this and looking to make a deal that will rival the SEC/CBS deal.
Good points CPT...while the best of the B1G games tend to be on ESPN/ABC under the current contract I believe that Fox wants to challenge ESPN. What better time to do that than in 2016? Interesting thought on the B1G/ACC (partnership?) which Fox would profit from however the only way the B1G would agree to that is to get some B1G/ACC games on the BTN. Otherwise what's in it for the B1G/BTN?
BamBamBuck
Well I read/heard awhile ago during the time Maryland and Rutgers announced they were joining the conference that Fox was poised to make a major TV push on the east coast because in 3 years, Fox has an option to buy majority stake in the YES Network, which is the network that carries the Yankees. There is potential that YES Network could carry college football games as the B1G has major leverage with cable subscribers and how to carry the BTN in the new/emerging markets because the BTN has to negotiate with the cable companies to get their network on the air.
At this point, current expansion to 14 has given the conference more leverage and power because of its emergence in the NYC/NJ market as well as in the DC/Baltimore market. Knowing this ESPN now must face a bigger contract for renewal AND increased competition from Fox as it attempts to consolidate its TV deals throughout the East Coast and the Midwest.
Any which way we put it, it appears that the conference is poised to profit enormously. But what I was trying to say was in order for ESPN to stay competitive/dominant in CFB, ESPN must get big deals in the ACC and B1G, not necessarily in one contract.
Yes I have heard much the same. Agree with your points on the position the B1G is in on future contract negotiations. Got you on the separate contracts point, my misunderstanding. I do hope Fox is able to create serious competition for ESPN, good for all of us.
BamBamBuck
IF UVA, GT, UNC, and FSU come to the B1G that would be incredible. The addition of FSU would make up for the fact that the others are sorta "okay" at football. Further, UVA, GT, and UNC have the potential to become much better. Imagine November games in Tallahassee.
I just don't see North Carolina leaving the ACC.
"YOLO" = I'm about to do something extremely ignorant/stupid & I need an excuse to do it.
They won't have a choice if the ACC disappears.
Who says it will?
"YOLO" = I'm about to do something extremely ignorant/stupid & I need an excuse to do it.
can't see FSU coming in either. AAU member?
I heard they were applying for membership.
"YOLO" = I'm about to do something extremely ignorant/stupid & I need an excuse to do it.
Nebraska?
How firm thy friendship..
FSU.
"YOLO" = I'm about to do something extremely ignorant/stupid & I need an excuse to do it.
Neither is Nebraska or another target ND. I think FSU has enough upside to overcome the B1G presidents want of AAU membership. It does seem as if FSU is some years away from being granted membership into the AAU, but maybe the continual empowerment to that end maybe enough for B1G acceptance.
BamBamBuck
FSU offers major upside to expansion and is really a good move for the conference.
empowerment...should be improvement
BamBamBuck
Here's my explanation as to why UNC is a likely B1G addition, as well as why FSU can gain admittance despite their current non-AAU status.
Good read Andy...I disagree with the offer Kansas thought. I just don't think Kansas brings enough to the B1G to make it worth our while. Also don't think offering Kansas just to destabilize the B12 is a good move, unless it "absolutely" delivered Texas. But do agree with the UVA, UNC, and GT moves.
BamBamBuck
Agree that Kansas is the stretch in my analysis - the Grant of Rights with the Big 12 is likely to keep those teams off the table in general, unless there is another mass Exodus and the PAC-12 cherry picks some teams at the same time, or the SEC wants a few more for its cupboard.
Great Read. Thanks for the post!
Did the BigTen turn down Mizzou because of the numbers, or because of something else?
"YOLO" = I'm about to do something extremely ignorant/stupid & I need an excuse to do it.
Delaney has been quoted as saying that if he knew then that the realignment game would change so fast post-Nebraska, he would have scooped up Mizzou and Kansas both at the same time, but that the changes the Nebraska move sparked happened much more quickly than anyone realized.
That, I think, is part of the reason the next move, already likely in the works, will involve multiple teams in one fell swoop, i.e. UNC, UVA and GaTech from the ACC (and perhaps FSU).
That logic is preemption by Delaney now. He will swoop in first and strike first in this round.
So Charlie Weis, Bert, Danny, and Hoke would have been in the BigTen together. Oh the jokes we could have made.
Any chance he tries to take them(Missouri) from the SEC?
"YOLO" = I'm about to do something extremely ignorant/stupid & I need an excuse to do it.
I could very much see that happening. My understanding is that the SEC doesn't have a hefty penalty as does the ACC, or the Grant of Rights as does the Big 12, so in theory they're ripe for the plucking.
If/when the conference goes to 18 or 20, I see Mizzou as part of the group (along with UVA, UNC and GaTech - I'm fuzzy after that if I think ND, Florida State or Texas round out a full 20-team slate).
Not sure if it's true, but I read somewhere(might have been on 11w) that there wasn't a an exit fee in the SEC.
Hurt feelings over not being invited the first time, and a potential PR hit(too weak to hang in the SEC), could prevent a move by Missouri.
If the BigTen does end up at 18, I hope it's Missouri, Georgia Tech, Florida State, and Notre Dame. I only want ND in the conference just so Ohio State can beat them every year.
"YOLO" = I'm about to do something extremely ignorant/stupid & I need an excuse to do it.
IMO, I think that Missouri panicked and jumped at the offer from the SEC because they were not sure the Big 12 would survive or be the best fit for Mizz.
I see GT and UVA as major pieces for expansion to make it 16. If UNC turns down the B1G, I'd expect Boston College, Kansas, and Florida State as viable options.
But I would not count out Duke, Duke may want to be in the same conference as UNC. But I do not think Duke wants to expand.
FWIW, I'd like to see GT, UNC, FSU, and UVA as the next 4 teams to join.
From what I saw around Columbia and read, it looked like people (fans and board members) were caught up in the SEC hype machine. They wanted to be a part of that conference. I wasn't around when Delaney plucked Nebraska, so I have no idea if they were hyped the same way for the B1G, but it was a frenzy that grew for the SEC.
In regards to realignment, give me UVa, UNC(vomits), GaTech and BC, and I'll be a happy camper.