Monday's Poll Watch returns with a glimpse into the peculiarities of the AP Top 25 ballots and ballot voter data. We scan these ballots to look for interesting patterns and what they may say about the college football landscape as the season progresses.
Ohio State's Lead Dwindles to 21 Points
Ohio State held its AP no. 1 ranking this week. This allowed Ohio State to surpass Oklahoma as the program with the most weeks atop the Associated Press poll.
While this gives Ohio State a new talking point for a recruiting mailer, a more careful examination shows Ohio State's once commanding lead as the consensus no. 1 team in the country is down to just 21 points. In other words, a similar clumsy outing against a meek team like Penn State might cost Ohio State the top standing next week.
The story is basically the same from last week. Ohio State holds 27 no. 1 votes from the AP's 60 voters. It's more than twice as many as no. 2 Baylor. However, those voters who do not have Ohio State as no. 1 are more skeptical of the Buckeyes than they are of the Buckeyes' next closest competitors. Ohio State's position is sliding past no. 5 for a lot of ballots that don't have Ohio State at no. 1. Some voters, like Brett McMurphy and Laura Keeley, have Ohio State in the double digits (no. 10 and no. 11, respectively).
I looked at the distribution of the voter data to see what exactly was happening. Ohio State and Baylor have similar right tails in the distribution of their voter data. For example, even Baylor has a double-digit vote from Chadd Cripe (no. 12). However, Baylor has a greater portion of its votes concentrated in the top six than Ohio State, despite Ohio State having more than twice the no. 1 votes than Baylor. Baylor is in the top six in 55 of 60 ballots cast, while Ohio State is in the top six in just 54.
Further, Baylor has exactly twice the no. 3 votes (14 total) than Ohio State, though Ohio State appears in the top three in 45 of 60 ballots (compared to 42 such appearances for Baylor).
If Ohio State wants to add more cushion between it and no. 2 and court back some of its preseason no. 1 votes, Saturday night would be a good place to start.
All Aboard the Michigan Bandwagon
I knew before I looked at the voter data that Ohio State was no. 1, but was likely going to have votes in the double digits. Seeing that the poll consensus for Michigan is no. 12, I was curious to see if there were any ballots cast in which Michigan was ranked ahead of Ohio State. Surely there'd be a few high votes for Michigan that might exceed some low votes for Ohio State, given a particular ballot.
Indeed, there were five such ballots.
| Voter | Ohio State's Rank | Michigan's Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Laura Keeley | 11 | 6 |
| Sam McKewon | 8 | 4 |
| Brett McMurphy | 10 | 8 |
| Dave Reardon | 8 | 5 |
| Jon Wilner | 7 | 5 |
I'm sure any further commentary about these five ballots makes for bulletin board material in Ann Arbor, or a sternly worded message board post on a Michigan site, but, sure, these five AP voters. The Northwestern win was impressive; I'll grant that.
This Week's Big Losers: Michigan State and Oklahoma
Michigan State struggled to beat a bad Rutgers team with an incompetent interim coach. Oklahoma outright lost to an incompetent team in the Red River Rivalry. As such, they lost big in this week's AP Poll.
Michigan State slid from no. 4 to no. 8, losing 152 points. Oklahoma tumbled from no. 10 to no. 19, losing 634 points.
The Spartans' fall can be considered momentary, the drop from no. 4 to no. 8 is not a trivial one in a playoff era. Oklahoma's loss may suggest more about an end of an era in a time where the Big XII is dominated more by nouveau programs like Baylor and Texas Christian than old standards like Oklahoma and Texas.
Oklahoma's fall across the ballots was fairly uniform. Only three ballots did not feature the Sooners this week (Chadd Cripe, Garland Gillen, and Josh Kendall). The Sooners' highest appearance on any ballot was no. 17 (Brent Axe, Ross Dellenger, and Duane Rankin).
Michigan State fans may want to thank John Clay, Joey Knight, and Rob Long for their continued support. All three have Michigan State as the no. 2 team in the country.
Other Peculiar Observations
- Sam McKewon has a top four of Utah, Baylor, LSU, and Michigan. Evidently, he wants to see Utah and Michigan play again.
- Ohio State's next opponent, Penn State, appeared on just one ballot. Rob Long has Penn State at no. 22.
- North Carolina received one vote from Adam Zucker (no. 25). I don't know why he did this, nor could I offer a good explanation for such a selection.
- Tom Herman has Houston in the Top 25 for the first time in his career. Gary Smits voted Houston at no. 19, the highest appearance for Houston on a given ballot.
- Doug Doughty has Iowa at no. 12.
