Monday's Poll Watch returns with a glimpse into the peculiarities of the AP Top 25 ballots and ballot voter data. We scan these ballots to look for interesting patterns and what they may say about the college football landscape as the season progresses.
Ohio State Still No. 1, but Dissent Emerging
Ohio State held onto its AP no. 1 ranking this week. Its a special no. 1 ranking too since it ties Ohio State with Oklahoma for most weeks atop the AP rankings.
However, we are starting to see increasing movement away from the first-ever consensus pre-season no. 1. Ohio State now has just 38 of 60 no. 1 votes, down seven from last week.
Further, Ohio State is starting to slide down more ballots. For example, Brett McMurphy (ESPN) had Ohio State at no. 5 last week and has Ohio State at no. 11 this week. This constitutes Ohio State's lowest appearance on any ballot.
Ohio State also has a no. 8 vote from Jon Wilner (San Jose Mercury News), whose name appears in this feature every week for casting ballots that look like avant-garde art. The Buckeyes also have a no. 9 vote from John Adams (Knoxville News Sentinel) who I typically note as regularly casting the SEC fanboy's ballot.
Ohio State lost 38 points from last week's rankings, but movement elsewhere in the ballot gave new no. 2, Texas Christian, 28 points less than last week's no. 2, Michigan State. Thus, Ohio State's lead over no. 2 dwindled by just 12 points.
One off-the-shelf explanation for this comes with movement elsewhere in the AP rankings. Michigan State slid while Ole Miss and Notre Dame tumbled. Florida and Clemson obviously benefitted from this movement. Further, Baylor's big win over Texas Tech gave renewed confidence to AP voters in the Bears. Baylor gained 168 points from last week and ten no. 1 votes.
The Hater's Ball for the Top Six
I mentioned that Brett McMurphy's no. 11 ranking for Ohio State was the lowest spot for Ohio State on a given ballot. However, each of the AP top six have designated "haters" whose votes are well below the poll consensus. Some of these are quite interesting.
For example, Doug Lesmerises (Cleveland Plain Dealer) has Texas Christian at no. 12. Jon Wilner even has the Frogs at no. 9. However, the "typical" low vote for Texas christian was no. 7, which was cast by five voters this week.
Baylor may have been the week's big winner, getting ten no. 1 votes. However, not all are sold on the Bears. Jon Wilner has Baylor at no. 10. Chadd Cripe (The Idaho Statesman) has Baylor at no. 12 this week, just one spot above his no. 13 vote last week.
Michigan State lost 106 points in the AP rankings because of an uncomfortably close win over Purdue. The Spartans still have 11 no. 2 votes this week, but some voters sold their proverbial stock. Dave Reardon (Honolulu Star-Advertiser) voted Michigan State no. 13. Sam McKewon (Omaha World-Herald) voted Michigan State no. 15.
Michigan State fans who care about the AP ranking may bemoan that Ohio State should've been docked as much for a comparably ugly conference win, but I think Michigan State's movement down the poll was more a function of Baylor and Texas Christian than it was an indictment on Michigan State.
Utah is up five spots to no. 5. This would, nominally, have the Utes as the first team out the playoff if the playoff rankings were finalized today, even though the Utes hold seven no. 1 votes. However, Utah holds three no. 11 votes from Bob Asmussen (Champaign [IL] News-Gazette), Ed Daigneault ([Waterbury, Ct] Republican-American), and Duane Rankin (Montgomery Advertiser). It also has three no. 10 votes from Steve Batterson (Quad City Times), Robert Cessna (Bryan-College Station [TX] Eagle) and Rob Long (WJFK-105.7). If not for those, Utah might be separated from no. 4 Michigan State by ten or fewer points.
Clemson rose six spots to no. 6, effectively taking the no. 6 ranking that Notre Dame had last week. Clemson is thus the highest-ranked team without a no. 1 vote, though it has a no. 2 vote from Brett McMurphy and no. 3 votes from Nathan Deen (Savannah Morning News) and Dave Reardon. Still, that win was not entirely convincing. Defensive lapses combined with an offensive identity that wilted in the second half keeps Clemson 74 points behind Michigan State. Clemson has a lot of no. 9 votes, a no. 10 vote from Ross Dellenger (The Advocate,Baton Rouge) and two no. 11 votes from Matt McCoy (610 WTVN-AM) and Scott Wolf (Los Angeles Daily News).
Roll Tide
Alabama dominated a Georgia team whose roster played right into Alabama's strengths. Alabama thrives on playing pro-style teams and Georgia did not have talent that was measurably better than what Nick Saban recruits to Tuscaloosa every year. The specifics of Alabama's win may have been a bit surprising, though the outcome (a convincing Alabama win) could be expected. Georgia slid to no. 19, though Alabama took its no. 8 spot.
Meanwhile, Ole Miss laid an egg in Gainesville two weeks after beating Alabama in Tuscaloosa. As a result, Florida rocketed up the rankings to no. 11, a 14-spot climb from no. 25 last week.
Ole Miss tumbled to 14 from no. 3 last week.
If only there was a way to determine whether Alabama was the better team than Ole Miss, right?
Alabama's higher ranking than Ole Miss didn't surprise me, but the 295-point difference between the two is kind of surprising.
Of the 60 ballot cast this week, 42 had Alabama ranked higher than Ole Miss. Some of the differences between Alabama's ranking and Ole Miss' ranking on a given ballot are rather astonishing. Gary Horowitz (Statesman Journal) and Rob Long both have Alabama at no. 6 and Ole Miss at no. 19, a 13-point difference. The biggest difference came in Matt Charboneau's (The Detroit News) ballot. Charboneau has Alabama at no. 5 and Ole Miss at no. 20.
These are the most extreme cases, but most ballots that had Alabama ranked higher than Ole Miss had at least nine spots between the Tide and the Rebels.
The 18 ballots that had Ole Miss over Alabama may be even more interesting. Of those 18 ballots, only two had Ole Miss more than one spot above Alabama. Adam Jude (The Seattle Times) and Kirk Bohls (Austin American-Statesman) both have Ole Miss at no. 10 and Alabama at no. 12.
Yes, the max difference for Ole Miss over Alabama is just two points. You can almost sense the voters being mindful of the bare minimum they need to do in their ballot to circumvent issues of cognitive dissonance.
Before I forget, Ed Johnson (Albuquerque [NM] Journal) voted Alabama at no. 2 this week. Roll Tide.
Other Peculiar Observations
- While opinion differs on the exact order of the top 25, there appears to be some consensus as to who belongs in the top 25. No. 20 UCLA was the first team in the rankings to not appear on a given ballot.
- Doug Lesmerises has Northwestern at no. 3, which is, by far, the highest vote for Northwestern this week.
- Iowa was one of the week's big winners. It received no votes last week but appeared in the AP Top 25 this week for the first time since 2010. Ross Dellenger is Iowa's highest vote at no. 16.
- Garland Gillen's (WVUE-TV FOX 8) top four is Ohio State, Florida, Utah, and Clemson. It's probably going to be that type of season. It already has that 2007 vibe.
