New QBs, Hype, and Small Sample Sizes

ziplock007's picture
August 20, 2014 at 1:50a
10 Comments

Let's not pretend any of us know how successful JT Barrett or Cardell Jones will fare in 2014.  In 10 days we'll have an idea. OSU will beat Navy about 31-17... and let the hype begin... we'll say his 2 TD passes are 'way ahead of schedule' for someone his age... His leadership and athleticism were vastly underrated...

We'll do all this after game one.... You know what they say about foresight?  It ain't hindsight.

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Obviously 2014 will not be a repeat of 2011.  But there's a great example of the dangers of extrapolating from a small sample size.

On opening day 2011, Luke Fickell's team led by QB Joe Bauserman effortlessly defeated Akron.  Then the hype began.

Ramzy made a Nostrodamian prediction with his post game rhetoric entitled, "The Return of Good Throw Joe"

Yes, Ramzy's article was written with hyperbole and a hint of unwarranted grandiose.  He really wasn't nominating him as the new Joe Germaine, but it wasn't meant to be a total joke... Bauserman was 3rd in QBR after week 1.  His 12-16 performance was actually a very promising start and OSU moved up in polls to #15.  I like Ramzy's words better.

"Very suddenly Bauserman was a viable passer. In December when Pryor was suspended for the first five games of the season, the outlook of the 2011 Ohio State passing game - at least through Game Five - was bleak.  It took Bauserman only two plays to upgrade that scope from mediocre to promising."

"As it turned out, we only thought we knew who Bauserman was. We had no idea what he could be."

"Bauseman did not throw the ball; he simply raised his arm and it departed from his hand - not to where Stoneburner was, but to where he would eventually be... Bauserman left the game having shown complete command of an offense that neither appeared to be simplified or overly-conservative. He was accurate, poised, resourceful, controlled and humble."

One week later Bauserman proved the opposite with a win almost loss vs. hapless Toledo.  The following week he went 2-14 with 13 yards in a losing effort vs. Miami.  After being shelved for true Freshman Miller, Bauserman took over after a Miller ankle sprain with his infamous Nebraska performance.  Not only did he blow a 3 TD lead with a 1-10 performance... the sad thing was, it wasn't even a good 1-10 performance.

Bauserman was not a "viable passer" nor was he "accurate, poised, resourceful, controlled and humble."  This was merely a prediction from a small sample size.

While 2014 can't be a repeat of 2011... Let's not sing JT's praises after 18 pass attempts to Top Ten Recruits against a team bereft of future NFL defenders.

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btw - I'm a HUGE Ramzy fan... but somehow that article popped in my head when I heard Braxton would miss the season

Comments

WhySoSerious's picture

Yea, that Akron game was a fluke! Joe I love my Buckeyes but damn.. Seriously. I have faith in JT, different breed made from a another cloth. HOPEFULLY. 10 days got damn it..

Rare&Uncommon

Like the ball in the stands, we balls out

bigbadbuck's picture

I never believed in Joe Bauserman.....Don't ask me why but I believe in J.T. Barrett. Cant wait till 8/30!!!.Go Bucks!!!!!

Gentlemen, you can't fight in here its a war room

+1 HS
ziplock007's picture

Whoa... it's 2 in the AM and people are commenting!??!?!?

I'm on the west coast and it's 11 PM... way past my bedtime.  Then again, I'm on the wrong side of 30.

Being old is rough: If it's recent and it's not Breaking Bad, I have no idea what you're talking about.

BuckeyeinToledo's picture

I enjoy your optimism? I think?

"There's nothing that cleanses your soul like getting the hell kicked out of you."

-Woody Hayes

Ohiothomas1's picture

Urban ain't Fickell.

faux_maestro's picture

Urban Tom Herman ain't Fickell The Walrus/coffee guy.

Inní mér syngur vitleysingur

allinosu's picture

Since western Kentucky and Duke held Navy to 7 last year, I'll go with us winning 31-7. 

TURD_BUCKET's picture

can't wait to read that kind of poetry from Ramzy

“Being average means you are as close to the bottom as you are to the top.” John Wooden

Furious George 27's picture

Here is what we know about JT... He was one of the top D/T QBs before his injury in HS, has been in the system for over a season, and was recruited personally by Herman. Bauserman was a 5th year SR who only touched the field because TP was suspended and Braxton was a Freshman. Bollman was the most generic play caller and produced underperforming lines,  the QBs had Zero development from Siciliano. So the major difference is development of the back up QBs who had the majority of the snaps in the spring and summer because of the real possibility that Braxton may get injured during the season.

Yeah, well…that’s just like, your opinion, man.

+1 HS
Run_Fido_Run's picture

On the other hand, Joe Bauserman's short and feeble career as a starting QB for an elite college football program was, itself, a very small sample of the aggregate data. Bauserball was an outlier. I can predict, at a 99 percent confidence level, that JT will be between 10 and 100 times better than Bauserball.