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The Dying Throes of BCS Chaos

I write this early Sunday morning, which is probably a bad time because about nine hours or so would allow greater certainty of what is to come.  However, I want to look at possibilities, so allow me the room that I might put on some rose-colored glasses.  We can all laugh at me later.

At any rate, let's start with how the top 25 of last week's BCS standings fared this week, with conference affiliations:

Notre Dame Ind. WON
Alabama SEC WON
Georgia SEC WON
Florida SEC WON
Oregon PAC-12 WON
Kansas State Big XII WON
LSU SEC WON
Stanford PAC-12 WON
Texas A&M SEC WON
Florida State ACC LOST
Clemson ACC LOST
South Carolina SEC WON
Oklahoma Big XII WON
Nebraska B1G WON
Oregon State PAC-12 LOST
Texas Big XII LOST
UCLA PAC-12 LOST
Rutgers Big East LOST
M*ch*g*n B1G LOST
Louisville Big East LOST
Oklahoma State Big XII LOST
Boise State MWC IDLE
Kent State MAC WON
Arizona PAC-12 LOST
Washington PAC-12 LOST

Wow, that's a string of losses in the bottom half.  Some are due to playing rivalry games with the top half of the BCS; others are, well, Louisville losing to UConn, which has a coach in hot water (and rightfully so, as one of his team's losses was to a MAC school that fired *its* coach).  The schools in the bottom half that didn't lose are even more important, though, as they are from non-AQ conferences, which can under certain circumstances receive automatic selection.  Specifically, if one makes it to the top twelve, or if they make it to the top sixteen and an automatic bid goes to a school ranked below them, they must be selected.  This is where the fun begins.

We have two interesting scenarios that can happen.  The first is the "Most Boring BCS Selection Show Ever."  This is admittedly a hard feat to accomplish, as they really aren't that fun to begin with and we've been through it too much already.  However, in this example we know all but one team in the BCS games, the championship matchup, and nearly all of the teams' places to boot.  For the championship matchup, that's not saying much at this point; barring an unforeseeable NCAA violation disaster, the game will pit Notre Dame against the SEC champion.  The B1G and PAC-12 champions will play each other, and, along with the other conference champions, these will be decided next week.  That would leave three games with four open slots, with the ACC champion contracted to the Orange Bowl and the Big XII champion going to the Fiesta Bowl.

Except that we would know who fills three of these slots.  The Big East champion would be one; for this scenario, it's decided by a Rutgers win next week, which puts them in first place by head-to-head tiebreaker.  Also happening here: the loser of the SEC title game falls beneath Oregon, who gleefully takes spot #4 in the BCS rankings.  Since Stanford isn't making the title game, Oregon automatically qualifies as a #3 or #4.  Also qualifying is a non-AQ school, quite likely Kent State (we'll get to why in a bit), and we're left with one slot which is likely an SEC team.  Furthermore, with that knowledge and the selection order, we can guess the rest:  the Sugar Bowl grabs the SEC team of its choice, the Fiesta Bowl grabs Oregon before they're gone, and the Sugar Bowl gets to choose between Rutgers and Kent State and shove the other to the Orange Bowl.

Interesting scenario #2 involves us not knowing the Big East champion until the show.  As many as four teams can tie for the title after next week.  If it's two, head-to-head is used; otherwise, we end up using the BCS standings to determine the champion.  Rutgers was loved slightly more than Louisville going into this week; it should remain so with a loss to Pittsburgh being slightly more palatable than a loss to UConn, but nevertheless neither one will be in the Top 25 next week. Nor is there any expectation of Syracuse or Cincinnati claiming spots in their stead, which leads to the funny part where they have to pick a school off of a points system where it is just within the realm of possibility that they all score a big fat 0.

Now, about the non-AQ chances.  Let's look at the scores from, say, 10 on down.

Name Harris USA Toay A&H RB CM KM JS PW Comp Avg.
Florida State .7760 .8129 18 16 15   22 16 .320
Clemson .6793 .6976 13 13 11 20 23 14 .440
South Carolina .5729 .5783 14 10 12 11 9 10 .610
Oklahoma .5322 .5410 9 9 14 9 11 12 .630
Nebraska .4435 .4434 11 15 9 12 15 11 .550
Oregon State .4184 .3817 8 14 13 13 10 13 .550
Texas .3784 .4020 12 12 16 14 13 17 .490
UCLA .3979 .4000 16 18 17 16 18 18 .350
Rutgers .2630 .2766 20 20 18 25   20 .190
M*ch*g*n .2000 .1959 19 22 20 17 20 15 .280
Louisville .3123 .3071 23   21       .030
Oklahoma State .1478 .1749 17 17 22 19 16   .290
Boise State .1482 .1647             .000
Kent State .0682 .0583 24 19 19     19 .160
Arizona .0073 .0034 21 23 23 15 14 21 .240
Washington .0184 .0244 25 24 - 18 17 22 .150

Assume that South Carolina, Oklahoma, and Nebraska are either holding down their spots or all moving up one together.  As for the rest, with the possible exception of Florida State, which lost to good competition and will get some help from any number of teams losing below them to teams not as good as Florida, expect more empty spaces to appear next to losing teams and numbers in front of Kent State to fill in or go up.  Boise State, while they also might benefit some, need two computers to rank them to do so; the high and low numbers are thrown out, and so far all Boise State has is low numbers.  This initial inertia, if you will, means Kent State benefits slightly more, and probably can jump Boise State given an equal increase in the poll numbers of both teams.  Boise's number comes to .1043, while Kent State is at .0955, a difference of .0088.

From there, Kent State needs to get to 16th, currently held by Texas at .4235.  Assume that's the number to shoot for, since Texas themselves lost to unranked TCU which isn't that bad but one too many losses for Texas to stay ranked.  With everyone from spot 15 down to them and the two schools below them losing, they are only going up; the question really is how much.  I don't pretend they will get all those spots; M*ch*g*n lost to a very good team that isn't ranked simply because they can't be, and while it's one loss too many in a bad B1G there's so much other carnage they are unlikely to disappear.  UCLA, in particular, lost to Stanford and that's in line with the rankings, even when it happens again *next week*, so they might stay up.  But a lot of these teams are dropping, especially in the polls, and that's where Kent State needs the help since that .0682 and .0583 represent 25th place overall in both polls.  They need an average of both polls and the computers that puts them around, say, at least .4000, and .4100 wouldn't hurt.  The computers will probably get very close to that number this week for them; the polls need to get to around 17th, which will take a couple of days from 25th even with the chaos.  Most importantly, for this to happen, Kent State has to beat Northern Illinois, or forget I said anything; if there was ever a time for a MAC team to make a BCS game, though, that time is now.

Why do we care?  Because watching the Sugar Bowl selection committee implode when, say, Cincinnati wins the Big East and Kent State makes the BCS and they have to choose between the two is simply awesome.  Alas, OSU can't be at a bowl this year, but we promise our state will show up to one of those two games!  Good luck guessing which one, and hooray for playoffs in 2014!

The Campaign for Today's Drunk Hour in Columbus

So, a tweet appeared early Monday night in my feed from our beloved President Gee:

The link, by the way, leads to the voting form - just in case you want to stop here and vote.  If so, feel free to come back after.

Since I had business (but no classes) to attend to on campus Tuesday anyway, I made a point to leave early and see what was being planned.

For those unfamiliar with the current Today show format, it now runs from 7:00-11:00 A.M. ET.  That's a lot of time to fill, and you can only keep a person in front of bright, hot stage lights for so long.  For the fourth hour, they give the standard hosts a break and run with Kathie Lee Gifford and Hoda Kotb.  To further make things interesting, they let the ladies drink on set.

My coverage starts right around start time at 9:30 (traffic on State Route 315 is simply ridiculous in the mornings), by which point we had assembled a decent crowd around the filming site, as well as a few band members (though whether they were TBDBITL or simply athletic band I do not know), the cheerleaders, and enough crowd to fill around the Union's rafters.  Oh, and Brutus, of course.  The promo was as much for NBC as for us, with the event running live via satellite uplink.  Thusly, we were treated to professional set crews (who were themselves treated to free coffee and tea), as well as the sober member of Today's fourth hour, correspondent Sara Haines.  Renditions of Hang on Sloopy, Seven Nation Army, and a slightly quieter Old Columbus Town (Sara wanted to do interviews during that segment without eating the microphone) were played and sung with the Today broadcast playing on the Union's flatscreens in the background.  A fun time all around, and NBC's crew seemed quite pleased at our efforts.

What comes of this will be up to voters; voters like, well, you reading this.  If you want to see Kathie Lee and Hoda "drink to old Ohio 'till we wobble in our shoes", click on the link in Dr. Gee's tweet and vote!

Practice report, 4/14/2012

"Students in first, staff and faculty line up over here - cellphones off and put away!"

No, in my years here at OSU - the one year from '97-98, or the ones starting in Winter 2009 - I have never been in the Woody Hayes Athletic Complex.  I could park there with my C permit, but that alone doesn't get you into a secure facility on campus. And, when your department makes millions of dollars for the university, your security concerns are addressed as you wish.

Security was in place for the event, and Buck-ID's were checked at the hallway past the trophy room.  This is where it pays to be a part-time student at age 34.  The Leo Yassenoff Practice Field was a short walk from there, through a door with a sign, "please...NO CLEATS permitted in the lobby".

Upon entering, we all sat down in the stands set up on the end of the field nearest the door.  Basic drills were going on while we all entered, followed by formal warmups a little over ten yards in front of us.  (Please note:  that means warmups started on the goal line.  The stands were literally on the field.)   The stands would actually be the relaxing seat of the day.  Of particular note here was Derek Burkholder, #88, who is a bit taller and EXTREMELY MORE FLEXIBLE than most of the others in view.  When he bends over to touch his toes, he touches the ground with the palms of his hands.  While everyone else is struggling to place palms on the ground during squats, he's going for the back of the wrist to make it harder on himself.

After some warmups, five minutes were allocated to 1v1 Scarlet vs. Gray point-of-attack drills.  After the first one, the circle of players rooting on the teammates inside blocked any views from the gallery.  From there, they went on to position drills; for us, that meant watching defensive line drills, including push forward, shedding, and shifting blockers off.  At this point, one noticed the refs coming in for the fun part.

As they lined up for the next part of the drills, cones were laid out on the 20-yard line, and we were beckoned forth.

In addition to the cameras above the 50-yard line and the end of the field opposite the stands (also known as target practice for the kicker), there is a cameraman taking video from the backfield, which, due to us being on the field, was offense scarlet jersey side.  Said camera is on a pole, with cables running down to a Sony portable video player at eye level.  Duct tape holds the cords in place up top on this wonder of makeshift engineering.  It has a black octogonal base at the bottom.  This made for an obstructed view a couple of times when the ball was directly in front of me, but, that being my only obstruction and non-permanent, I was not complaining.  Sitting down Indian-style for over 100 minutes was at best a minor grumble.  Being behind anybody, even with a lot of people sitting down, was cause for grumbling, but, being on the field, it couldn't be helped.

Extra-point tries were done in sets of three, likely to practice dealing with the inevitable 5-yard penalties on an offense.  Punts, when called for, would have a rubber flourescent marker in front of the kicker to prevent him getting beat up by offense, as well as a number of personnel - the aforementioned 88 Scarlet included - wearing yellow stockings over their helmets.

Braxton got playtime - all QB units were in black unis, and all but one had a knee brace.  Purely precautionary, I imagine, because Braxton was still running the ball on occasion to some success.  Also, to some success, the defensive line would get in to tap him for a sack.  I noticed two that were simply pocket breakdowns, and one that was an untouched lineman.  A couple others I didn't notice.

Passes were thrown to the flat often, with a big battle between #4 C.J. Barnett and whatever WR was lined up against him.  Barnett did get one good interception, nearly running it back all the way to us except for a pesky sideline.  Run plays included a couple of reverses for big gains that will make Ramzy cry with joy.  Defense missed wrapping up a couple of times, but were otherwise solid.

The sideline of course had its own small, select group of visitors; as well as potential recruits, one Daniel "Boom" Herron was easily spotted.

Three injuries of note occurred; one during warmups, and two during play.  With no information on specifics (and unable to look up #51 scarlet), I'll leave investigation to more media types.  It's still spring, though, so hopefully those can heal well and practice time won't be affected much.

After the hundred minutes of back torture from sitting Indian style, they chose to do some field goal kicking - towards the end with students.  The students were happy to oblige the drill with away-team sound, and Urban had them move closer to it...and closer...and all of a sudden we were summoned to make a ring around the kicking units so they could get even closer and really deafen the area.  It was about this time that the no-camera part of the practice ended. as a swarm of people held cellphones long buried out over the crowd to get a glimpse of the kicking unit facing duress and aiming for black tape on netting indicating uprights.

Following this, we were ushered back behind the twenty again, though no sitting this time (bless my 34-year-old back, even if it was near impossible for some to see now).  Now, the clock was put in two-minute drill mode, with one(!) minute on the clock, timeouts if needed, and a goal to get down the length of the field with NCAA clock rules enforced. One good reverse/possibly broken kickout to the left made at least one of these drills a trivial sneak or two to the endzone; others were harder, with the one big Barnett interception.

After this, the team huddled up at the other end of the field, and Dr. Javaune Adams-Gaston - we all call her Dr. J - took a short minute to address the crowd, followed by a football staffer giving us the breakdown for the meet-and-greet; fifteen minutes with whomever, followed by everyone on the fifty-yard line for an event picture.  During those minutes, I made sure to walk around and meet one of our walk-on ME's on defense, praise #88 on his flexibility, get 3DS pics of #3 Corey Brown, Braxton Miller, and of course Urban Meyer (yes, we chanted).  I also looked around and got pictures of some of the outer area, including a tackling sled in the corner, the radio equipment broadcasting rap during the meet-and-greet, at least one scarlet jersey out of Sylvania, OH (he knows where Delta is!) and the wavy locks next to him of one #78 Andrew Norwell.  Autographs were discouraged for the students, though for the small kids and disability visitors, they were gladly granted nevertheless.  After the fifteen minutes were up and the photos taken on the fifty (with a required O-H! chant), I left the facility, pausing only to take photos around the trophy room.

The experience was a good one overall.  The crowd was managable, even if the rain-plan facility was not made for a viewing public at ground level.  I got to hear the coaches' cacaphony of shouting to pump up the players during warmups.  I got to see Urban looking very proud at holding this event.  I got to see Braxton get knocked down once in black jersey and a quick, barely-noticable upbraiding.  Most of all, I got to see the WHAC, and that alone was worth it.

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