More B1G Basketball Stats (Now with individual offensive ratings)

thePhilipJFry's picture
January 21, 2014 at 12:11p

Another week another chart as the basketball Buckeyes do whatever it is they are doing out there. 
1. Pace (possessions per game)
2. Off (offensive efficiency, this is points per possession)
3. Def (defensive efficiency, this is points allowed per possession on defense)
4. Margin (off-def)
5. or% (offensive rebounding percentage, this is how well a team gathers its own missed shots)
6. or%def (offensive rebounding percentage allowed, this is how well a team allows its opponents to gather its missed shots)
7. to% (turnover percentage, the percent of possessions in which a team turns the ball over)
8. to%def (opponents turnover percentage, how well a team forces turnovers)

  pace off def margin or% or%def to% to%def
Michigan State 65.5 1.13 0.93 0.198 0.335 0.263 0.173 0.207
Iowa 70.2 1.17 0.97 0.190 0.354 0.289 0.171 0.189
Michigan 60.0 1.22 1.04 0.172 0.216 0.283 0.150 0.190
Wisconsin 65.0 1.19 1.06 0.136 0.259 0.339 0.120 0.139
Purdue 65.5 1.07 1.05 0.018 0.392 0.253 0.174 0.154
Ohio State 69.1 1.01 1.01 0.003 0.252 0.302 0.186 0.214
Minnesota 65.6 1.07 1.12 -0.048 0.330 0.339 0.216 0.157
Indiana 65.9 1.02 1.08 -0.060 0.363 0.290 0.209 0.160
Illinois 65.6 0.99 1.08 -0.088 0.328 0.306 0.135 0.182
Penn State 65.3 1.00 1.11 -0.113 0.298 0.366 0.176 0.178
Nebraska 65.3 0.96 1.07 -0.116 0.274 0.214 0.196 0.169
Northwestern 60.1 0.86 1.07 -0.210 0.211 0.319 0.180 0.138

Ohio State is pushing to become 1 of 4 teams in the sub 1 point per possession club.  Ohio State has outplayed that offensive efficiency twice this season, 1.10 at Purdue and 1.31 at home versus Nebraska.  In that Nebraska game Amedeo Della Valle used 6 possessions to score 15 points and Ohio State hit 9 of 19 three point attempts.  Without that Nebraska game, Ohio State is averaging 0.95 points per possession, which would put them next to last in the league.

Defensively Ohio State is the best in the league at forcing turnovers, but not particularly good at grabbing rebounds.  The really disturbing trend for the Ohio State defense is that back to back games opponents have hit 64% of two point attempts.

As for teams that are good at basketball, Iowa plays at Michigan Wednesday night.  Huge contrast in pace (Iowa runs, Michigan plods), two great offenses and an Iowa defense that is good (seriously how many people knew that Iowa was neck and neck with MSU for best defense in the B1G).  Look for Iowa to have the edge on the glass so Michigan’s shooting percentage is going to be paramount.

A clear top 4 has emerged in the conference, and it's all about offense. 

As a side note Illinois must be a truly horrible shooting team.  They take excellent care of the ball (lowest turnover percentage), they're near the top of the league in offensive rebounding and are still one of the three worst offenses in the B1G.  Checks stats, Illinois hits 41% of twos and 26% of threes.  Anybody who watches the Ohio State/Illinois game might never watch another basketball game ever.  That game should have a players moms only audience where missed shots get several claps and a "that's ok sweetie, mommy loves you."

Individual offensive rating is points produced per 100 possessions.  The details of this calculation can be found here:
Usage rate is an estimate of the percentage of offensive possessions an individual player uses when he is on the court.
These two are related to one another, in general the more possessions that a player uses, the harder it is to be efficient with those possessions.  So if you remember Dallas Lauderdale, you will remember one of the worst looking jump shots in D1 basketball history (this is entirely opinion and should not be considered a fact).  He was however, very good at rebounding, and could dunk a basketball.  His offensive role was to set picks, rebound and dunk.  He filled this role, didn’t step outside of it and in doing so he amassed a huge offensive rating with a very small usage rate.  The other side of that coin would be Ross this year (or Evan Turner, Jared Sullinger and Deshaun Thomas before him).  The weight of the entire offense seems to fall on this one person when they are on the floor.  Opposing defenses know this, and game plan accordingly.
This season in B1G play:

  Ortg usg% min/game
Aaron Craft 93.6 15.7 37.0
LaQuinton Ross 101.0 30.8 29.3
Amir Williams 120.3 14.5 22.3
Shannon Scott 92.8 17.7 29.5
Lenzelle Smith Jr 87.4 21.1 29.0
Sam Thompson 113.2 17.0 26.3
Marc Loving 106.6 27.8 14.2
Trey McDonald 95.6 12.3 9.0
Amedeo Della Valle 123.7 18.8 7.2

Well first, what is impressive is freshman Marc Loving.  He has a usage rate near that of Ross while still maintaining a high offensive rating (relative to the team which would be 101).  It really looks like Loving could be great when he starts getting serious minutes. 
It’s not out of the ordinary for a team’s highest offensive ratings to be in the hands of a good three point shooter (Della Valle) or low usage big man (Williams).  What is out of the ordinary is the combination of minutes and offensive rating for Aaron Craft, Shannon Scott and Lenzelle Smith Jr.  If Ohio State wants to improve on offense, minutes have to be diverted from those three to Thompson, Della Valle and especially Loving.

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