More B1G Basketball Stats (Now with individual offensive ratings)

thePhilipJFry's picture
January 21, 2014 at 12:11p
12 Comments


Another week another chart as the basketball Buckeyes do whatever it is they are doing out there. 
Key:
1. Pace (possessions per game)
2. Off (offensive efficiency, this is points per possession)
3. Def (defensive efficiency, this is points allowed per possession on defense)
4. Margin (off-def)
5. or% (offensive rebounding percentage, this is how well a team gathers its own missed shots)
6. or%def (offensive rebounding percentage allowed, this is how well a team allows its opponents to gather its missed shots)
7. to% (turnover percentage, the percent of possessions in which a team turns the ball over)
8. to%def (opponents turnover percentage, how well a team forces turnovers)

  pace off def margin or% or%def to% to%def
Michigan State 65.5 1.13 0.93 0.198 0.335 0.263 0.173 0.207
Iowa 70.2 1.17 0.97 0.190 0.354 0.289 0.171 0.189
Michigan 60.0 1.22 1.04 0.172 0.216 0.283 0.150 0.190
Wisconsin 65.0 1.19 1.06 0.136 0.259 0.339 0.120 0.139
Purdue 65.5 1.07 1.05 0.018 0.392 0.253 0.174 0.154
Ohio State 69.1 1.01 1.01 0.003 0.252 0.302 0.186 0.214
Minnesota 65.6 1.07 1.12 -0.048 0.330 0.339 0.216 0.157
Indiana 65.9 1.02 1.08 -0.060 0.363 0.290 0.209 0.160
Illinois 65.6 0.99 1.08 -0.088 0.328 0.306 0.135 0.182
Penn State 65.3 1.00 1.11 -0.113 0.298 0.366 0.176 0.178
Nebraska 65.3 0.96 1.07 -0.116 0.274 0.214 0.196 0.169
Northwestern 60.1 0.86 1.07 -0.210 0.211 0.319 0.180 0.138

Ohio State is pushing to become 1 of 4 teams in the sub 1 point per possession club.  Ohio State has outplayed that offensive efficiency twice this season, 1.10 at Purdue and 1.31 at home versus Nebraska.  In that Nebraska game Amedeo Della Valle used 6 possessions to score 15 points and Ohio State hit 9 of 19 three point attempts.  Without that Nebraska game, Ohio State is averaging 0.95 points per possession, which would put them next to last in the league.

Defensively Ohio State is the best in the league at forcing turnovers, but not particularly good at grabbing rebounds.  The really disturbing trend for the Ohio State defense is that back to back games opponents have hit 64% of two point attempts.

As for teams that are good at basketball, Iowa plays at Michigan Wednesday night.  Huge contrast in pace (Iowa runs, Michigan plods), two great offenses and an Iowa defense that is good (seriously how many people knew that Iowa was neck and neck with MSU for best defense in the B1G).  Look for Iowa to have the edge on the glass so Michigan’s shooting percentage is going to be paramount.

A clear top 4 has emerged in the conference, and it's all about offense. 

As a side note Illinois must be a truly horrible shooting team.  They take excellent care of the ball (lowest turnover percentage), they're near the top of the league in offensive rebounding and are still one of the three worst offenses in the B1G.  Checks stats, Illinois hits 41% of twos and 26% of threes.  Anybody who watches the Ohio State/Illinois game might never watch another basketball game ever.  That game should have a players moms only audience where missed shots get several claps and a "that's ok sweetie, mommy loves you."

Individual offensive rating is points produced per 100 possessions.  The details of this calculation can be found here: http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/ratings.html.
Usage rate is an estimate of the percentage of offensive possessions an individual player uses when he is on the court. http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/glossary.html
These two are related to one another, in general the more possessions that a player uses, the harder it is to be efficient with those possessions.  So if you remember Dallas Lauderdale, you will remember one of the worst looking jump shots in D1 basketball history (this is entirely opinion and should not be considered a fact).  He was however, very good at rebounding, and could dunk a basketball.  His offensive role was to set picks, rebound and dunk.  He filled this role, didn’t step outside of it and in doing so he amassed a huge offensive rating with a very small usage rate.  The other side of that coin would be Ross this year (or Evan Turner, Jared Sullinger and Deshaun Thomas before him).  The weight of the entire offense seems to fall on this one person when they are on the floor.  Opposing defenses know this, and game plan accordingly.
This season in B1G play:

  Ortg usg% min/game
Aaron Craft 93.6 15.7 37.0
LaQuinton Ross 101.0 30.8 29.3
Amir Williams 120.3 14.5 22.3
Shannon Scott 92.8 17.7 29.5
Lenzelle Smith Jr 87.4 21.1 29.0
Sam Thompson 113.2 17.0 26.3
Marc Loving 106.6 27.8 14.2
Trey McDonald 95.6 12.3 9.0
Amedeo Della Valle 123.7 18.8 7.2

Well first, what is impressive is freshman Marc Loving.  He has a usage rate near that of Ross while still maintaining a high offensive rating (relative to the team which would be 101).  It really looks like Loving could be great when he starts getting serious minutes. 
It’s not out of the ordinary for a team’s highest offensive ratings to be in the hands of a good three point shooter (Della Valle) or low usage big man (Williams).  What is out of the ordinary is the combination of minutes and offensive rating for Aaron Craft, Shannon Scott and Lenzelle Smith Jr.  If Ohio State wants to improve on offense, minutes have to be diverted from those three to Thompson, Della Valle and especially Loving.

Comments

d5k's picture

They are hitting so many 2 point attempts because of transition and offensive rebounding I would guess.  Iowa also found backdoor cutting opportunities and we have been punished inside when going small.  Matta is trying to put a finger in the dam right now.

thePhilipJFry's picture

I really feel bad for Matta right now.  There are so many things that this team does poorly that when he makes a personnel move to improve one area, he makes another area worse.  I guess you just try to play to your team's strength and go full court press with Craft/Scott/Thompson/Loving/Williams getting all the minutes that they can handle.  That is going to make the opponents 2pt% higher (it really doesn't have that much further up to go anyway) but should get the backcourt players more opportunities to create turnovers. 

Jack Fu's picture

Agreed on all counts. We have a lot of players who do one or two things well, but have massive deficiencies in other areas. It seems like every lineup switch he makes is a zero-sum game: whatever improvement the insertion of the new guy gives in one area, it makes us worse in a different way.
I talked to a buddy of mine after the game last night and our conclusion was also that this team's best chance to win would probably be full-court, high-pressure, run-and-gun with the sole purpose being to create as much havoc and as many turnovers as possible, and hope that you fluster the other team into a ton of turnovers and bad shots, thereby creating more transition opportunities (since this team can't create good looks and even when they do, they can't shoot). But a system like that is such a thing of its own, it's basically a philosophy that you have to 100% commit to; I don't think you could just decide to run it all of a sudden.
The roster's just really limited and I don't see any easy answers.

gm3jones's picture

Good stuff, Jack. I never thought about doing full-court press and try to get as many possessions as possible (since we cant score half court). I would like to point out that this team is filled with upper classmen so they should already have a handle of how to do the full court press, traps ,etc.. But you are probably right; this team is really limited.

There is nothing more remarkable as learning to think better.

Jack Fu's picture

Wow, we get no offensive rebounds. Only Michigan (whose coach has always philosophically favored getting back on D at the expense of going for Orebs) and Northwestern (who is terrible) get fewer offensive rebounds than OSU. We also turn the ball over more than all but three other teams in the league. On top of an eFG south of 50%, we're second-to-last in the conference in free throw shooting, we don't get offensive rebounds, and we turn the ball over too much. Other than that, everything's great.

Jack Fu's picture

For Craft and Scott to have O-ratings that low, with usage rates that low ... I mean, that's really bad. And I would guess that their usage rates are probably inflated by the number of turnovers they've had the last four games. In most situations, low-usage guys tend to have higher O-ratings, because they play certain roles and aren't asked to do anything offensively, so they just get their occasional open three-pointers or dunks when the other team is overly focused on the primary scoring threat (your Lauderdale example is perfect: he did nothing on offense but set screens, get rebounds, and throw down the occasional wide-open dunk. He was a below-average offensive player who had a high Ortg because of his meager usage). Basically, Craft and Scott are asked to do very little on offense, and they're still bad at it. Oof.

thePhilipJFry's picture

I really see Craft and Scott as the same player right now.  Great on ball defenders with quick hands that lead to steals.  Poor perimeter shooters with good quickness to get to the basket.  Their offensive value is with the ball in their hands and finishing at the rim, hitting the big man under the basket if his man helps or kicking it out to a perimeter shooter for a jump shot.  When you play the two of them together with Lenzelle Smith Jr., the defense can help off the other two with no threat of getting beat by an outside shot from their man.  This leads to a dribble drive late in the shot clock into a clogged lane and ultimately a turnover.  Playing one of them at a time with an additional shooter, or two, should bring about higher offensive ratings for both Craft and Scott by lowering turnovers and raising assists.

Jack_Q_Football's picture

It is sooo important to have a secondary, (and beyond), scoring threat besides Q. Hopefully Smith can carry that over for the rest of the season.
Also, I really think this offense is at it's best when Craft is aggressive. He can drive to the hoop and somehow slither his way around traffic for those reverse layups...it's a thing of beauty. He can also dish when the d closes in...keep aggressive, AC!

ItzMillertime01's picture

I agree that Loving should definitely be getting more minutes, but offensive ratings don't account for a players ability to create their own shot.  Ross, Craft, Scott, and Smith  are our best at this (relatively not very good tho).  Loving is getting better at driving and drawing fouls.

thePhilipJFry's picture

Usage rate is related to the ability to create a shot.  Spot up shooters tend to have low usage rates and high ortg as do dunk only big men.

ItzMillertime01's picture

Right. These are high-efficiency plays.  I wanted to make the point that this doesn't necessarily mean a high ortg and low usage player should get the ball more and increase usage because they are usually taking advantage of easy opportunities that others created for them (unless they move off the ball really well, but I don't see much of that with this team imo).

ItzMillertime01's picture

Our TO%Def is crazy good! Unfortunately, it seems like we don't create enough points off these turnovers.  DefRebounding is bad which is no surprise.  This post is awesome.  I love analytical posts like this, especially about Buckeye hoops.