B1G Basketball Team Stats (Now with 200% more tables!)

thePhilipJFry's picture
January 28, 2014 at 1:19p
7 Comments

These stats are for B1G play only.
Key:
1. Pace (possessions per game)
2. Off (offensive efficiency, this is points per possession)
3. Def (defensive efficiency, this is points allowed per possession on defense)
4. Margin (off-def)

  pace off def margin
Iowa 68.7 1.15 0.98 0.171
Michigan 60.8 1.22 1.07 0.155
Michigan State 65.3 1.13 0.98 0.144
Wisconsin 64.3 1.19 1.08 0.111
Ohio State 67.5 1.02 1.00 0.022
Indiana 65.2 1.01 1.02 -0.017
Minnesota 65.3 1.11 1.14 -0.025
Purdue 65.8 1.01 1.04 -0.027
Nebraska 64.9 0.99 1.07 -0.085
Penn State 64.3 1.00 1.08 -0.086
Illinois 64.8 0.95 1.06 -0.112
Northwestern 61.8 0.86 1.06 -0.201

Well after the roll Michigan has been on there is a new team at the top of the conference, and it’s Iowa.  Iowa has built this mostly during thumpings of Northwestern twice, Ohio State and Minnesota.  Michigan on the other hand played better against Wisconsin, Iowa and Michigan State than they did against Minnesota and Nebraska.  There are 4 top teams in the B1G and everybody else just isn’t at their level.  Offense is still what separates the good and bad: Iowa, Michigan, MSU and Wisconsin play it, nobody else does (with the exception of Minnesota who plays absolutely no defense and held OSU to 0.8 points per possession).

Dean Oliver has his “four factors of basketball success” (http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/factors.html).  I thought I’d bring you a little expanded version of this.  I broke down effective field goal percentage into 2 point percentage and 3 point percentage.  Defensive 3 point percentage defense isn’t really a thing:  http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/3_point_defense_should_not_be_defined_by_opponents_3p
So you can think of that as a sort of luck factor (although if you watched MSU go under ball screens on Nik Stauskus you can probably expect MSU opponents’ 3pt% to go up). 
Key
1. Def (defensive efficiency, this is points allowed per possession on defense)
2. 2pt% (percentage of 2pt shots made)
3. 3pt% (percentage of 3pt shots made)
4. 3pa/fga (percentage of shot that are attempted from 3pt land)
5. Efg% (effective field goal percentage: (FG + 0.5 * 3P) / FGA)
6. Ftm/fga (made free throws divided by field goal attempts, a measure of how large a part of offense or defense free throws are)
7. Tov% (turnover percentage, TOV / (FGA + 0.44 * FTA + TOV))
8. Drb% (defensive rebounding percentage, DRB / (Opp ORB + DRB))
9. Off (offensive efficiency, this is points per possession)
10. Orb% (offensive rebound percentage, ORB / (ORB + Opp DRB))
Defense


 
def 2pt% 3pt% 3pa/fga efg% ftm/fga tov% drb%
Iowa 0.98 0.45 0.30 0.36 0.45 0.26 0.16 0.73
Michigan State 0.98 0.41 0.37 0.36 0.46 0.30 0.18 0.72
Ohio State 1.00 0.51 0.30 0.29 0.49 0.23 0.19 0.69
Indiana 1.02 0.52 0.30 0.36 0.49 0.21 0.15 0.74
Purdue 1.04 0.49 0.29 0.39 0.47 0.30 0.13 0.76
Northwestern 1.06 0.45 0.31 0.30 0.46 0.26 0.13 0.67
Illinois 1.06 0.47 0.35 0.34 0.49 0.29 0.16 0.70
Michigan 1.07 0.53 0.31 0.34 0.51 0.22 0.15 0.71
Nebraska 1.07 0.52 0.36 0.32 0.53 0.29 0.14 0.77
Wisconsin 1.08 0.46 0.31 0.22 0.46 0.18 0.11 0.67
Penn State 1.08 0.40 0.36 0.39 0.46 0.36 0.15 0.64
Minnesota 1.14 0.47 0.37 0.37 0.50 0.36 0.13 0.68

Ohio State is third in the league defensively largely on the strength of their ability to create turnovers.  There is still plenty of room for improvement rebounding and in 2pt% allowed.  Wisconsin seems to be the gold standard for chasing shooters off the 3pt line, where Purdue is probably very fortunate allowing so many 3pt attempts.

  off 2pt% 3pt% 3pa/fga efg% ftm/fga tov% or%
Michigan 1.22 0.58 0.40 0.38 0.59 0.29 0.14 0.26
Wisconsin 1.19  0.55 0.36 0.37  0.55  0.27  0.11 0.26
Iowa 1.15  0.51 0.38 0.23 0.52 0.37 0.16 0.36
Michigan State 1.13 0.48 0.39 0.33  0.52 0.27 0.14 0.32
Minnesota 1.11 0.52 0.37 0.34 0.53 0.31 0.17 0.32
Ohio State 1.02 0.49 0.32 0.36 0.49 0.29 0.16 0.29
Purdue 1.01 0.41 0.31 0.30 0.42 0.25 0.14 0.37
Indiana 1.01 0.41 0.36 0.28 0.45 0.32 0.18 0.34
Penn State 1.00 0.45 0.28 0.38 0.44 0.27 0.14 0.29
Nebraska 0.99 0.46 0.34 0.34 0.47 0.23 0.17 0.27
Illinois 0.95 0.41 0.26 0.34 0.41 0.20 0.13 0.30
Northwestern 0.86 0.44 0.23 0.40 0.41 0.20 0.15 0.20

Michigan’s offense is the B1G's best right now and it is largely due to making 3 point shots.  Michigan is decent at avoiding turnovers, and ok at getting to the line (though much of that may be the ends of the Wisconsin, Iowa and especially Michigan State games).  They are a poor offensive rebounding team (though they did step that up against Iowa and Sparty), so much of their offense comes down to just hitting shots.  Wisconsin is almost a carbon copy the Wolverines offensively (very similar defensively too).  Iowa, despite good 3 point shooting, avoids the three point shot in favor of offensive rebounds and free throws.  Ohio State is just kind of average in every regard offensively, and will continue to struggle through B1G play until they figure something out.

Comments

d5k's picture

Seems like that is just what we are this year.  Somewhere in the 4-6 range in the conference hierarchy and a solid-but-not-great NCAA tournament team.  We have the players to flip that around a bit as we should be the #1 defense in the conference and there's obviously more that can be accomplished offensively with this group of players (if Craft, Ross and Lenzelle play up to the potential shown late last season).  Or we could fall to the bubble but I don't think it is sky-is-falling NIT here we come territory yet.

thePhilipJFry's picture

I think that given their nonconference schedule they are going to need a couple of wins versus the top four to get into the NCAA tourney.  I just don't see them doing that right now.  You never know, Michigan has a fantastic looking offense, but if you can force the ball away from Stauskas and into LaVert's and Robinson's hands you can make that offense look a little closer to ordinary.  If you can get MSU to try to go up and down you might be able to force enough turnovers to get the win and Wisconsin has played some duds this year too.  Basketball is really hard when you can't shoot.

Go1Bucks's picture

Were going to go on a win streak.  We will beat that pos up North.
I having a good night.
 
Go Bucks!

"I will pound you and pound you, until you quit." -Woody

Jack Fu's picture

Michigan’s offense is the B1G's best right now and it is largely due to making 3 point shots... so much of their offense comes down to just hitting shots.

MGoBlog is very fond of saying that Beilein's system essentially turns their games into an elaborate game of HORSE, and it's true. They do their best to eliminate all of the other factors and turn games into a shooting contest. "You get a shot, then I get a shot, then you get a shot, then I get a shot, and I bet I make more than you do." And with the shooters he has, that's a great plan. He is an awesome coach.
Are you compiling these stats yourself, or are you using KenPom? With OSU's defense, I thought about tracking individual defensive rating as laid out in Basketball on Paper, but it seemed like a ton of work so I bailed.

thePhilipJFry's picture

I have the book and never thought about doing individual defensive rating for the Bucks.  It basically comes down to steals, dreb and blocks.  So you'd see Amir Williams, Aaron Craft and Shannon Scott (probably in that order). 
I have thought about doing a +/- for each player but I wouldn't even know where to get that data.
I did just finish individual offensive ratings for every player in the B1G, but now have no idea how to post such a thing on here (too much cut and paste for a table of that size).  Might just post a 10 best offensive players then dump in everybody sorted by team.

Jack Fu's picture

Google doc, maybe?

ItzMillertime01's picture

Sports Reference does this
http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/aaron-craft-1.html
As for +/- I saw it used in a Lantern article, but the author doesn't reference where the stats came from.