B1G Basketball Team Stats

thePhilipJFry's picture
February 4, 2014 at 9:51a
1 Comment

These stats are for B1G play only.
Key:
1. Pace (possessions per game)
2. Off (offensive efficiency, this is points per possession)
3. Def (defensive efficiency, this is points allowed per possession on defense)
4. Margin (off-def)

  pace off def margin
Iowa 68.5 1.14 0.99 0.144
Michigan State 65.6 1.12 0.99 0.129
Michigan 60.5 1.19 1.07 0.120
Wisconsin 62.8 1.14 1.07 0.065
Ohio State 65.8 1.03 1.01 0.018
Indiana 63.2 1.01 1.01 0.000
Minnesota 64.0 1.10 1.13 -0.025
Penn State 65.1 1.02 1.07 -0.050
Purdue 66.4 1.01 1.06 -0.058
Nebraska 64.2 0.99 1.06 -0.068
Illinois 65.3 0.96 1.07 -0.111
Northwestern 61.3 0.89 1.03 -0.141

The leaders of the conference are coming back to the pack, some faster than others.  Iowa’s fall from 0.17 to 0.14 is the kind of stuff that makes Michigan and Wisconsin jealous.  Michigan went from 0.16 to 0.12 the past week, while Wisconsin fell from 0.11 to 0.7.

Key
1. Def (defensive efficiency, this is points allowed per possession on defense)
2. 2pt% (percentage of 2pt shots made)
3. 3pt% (percentage of 3pt shots made)
4. 3pa/fga (percentage of shot that are attempted from 3pt land)
5. Efg% (effective field goal percentage: (FG + 0.5 * 3P) / FGA)
6. Ftm/fga (made free throws divided by field goal attempts, a measure of how large a part of offense or defense free throws are)
7. Tov% (turnover percentage, TOV / (FGA + 0.44 * FTA + TOV))
8. Drb% (defensive rebounding percentage, DRB / (Opp ORB + DRB))
9. Off (offensive efficiency, this is points per possession)
10. Orb% (offensive rebound percentage, ORB / (ORB + Opp DRB))
Defense

  def 2pt% 3pt% 3pa/fga efg% ftm/fga tov% drb%
MSU 0.99 41 36 0.35 45 0.34 0.18 72
Iowa 0.99 46 31 0.37 46 0.26 0.15 73
OSU 1.01 51 30 0.31 49 0.23 0.18 69
Indiana 1.01 51 31 0.36 49 0.22 0.16 75
Northwestern 1.03 45 29 0.31 45 0.26 0.13 69
Nebraska 1.06 52 36 0.32 53 0.29 0.16 75
Purdue 1.06 51 30 0.38 49 0.31 0.14 74
Michigan 1.07 52 32 0.32 51 0.21 0.16 69
Wisconsin 1.07 46 35 0.23 47 0.19 0.12 68
PSU 1.07 41 35 0.36 45 0.35 0.15 65
Illinois 1.07 48 35 0.34 49 0.31 0.16 68
Minnesota 1.13 47 37 0.38 50 0.34 0.14 69

Northwestern's defense has to be talked about here.  They started off the season giving up 1.3 points per possession to Wisconsin, Michigan and Iowa.  Granted those are the three best offenses in the B1G so some struggles were expected, but 1.3 is still a ton of points to give up every possession.  They followed that up with this streak:

ILL     0.75
MSU   0.99
IND    0.75
PUR   0.86
IA      1.19
WIS   0.83
MIN   1.01
 

Iowa did really well against them, but if this continues we may very well live in a world where Northwestern has the best defense in the B1G.  A little digging into the numbers shows that Northwestern isn't forcing more turnovers, getting a higher percentage of defensive rebounds, limiting free throw attempts or completely shutting off the three point arc.  It's 2pt% allowed.

WIS   0.64
MICH  0.63
IA      0.57
ILL     0.31
MSU   0.50
IND    0.26
PUR   0.22
IA      0.55
WIS   0.30
MIN    0.56

That's the only way to win basketball games when you have a terrible offense.

  off 2pt% 3pt% 3pa/fga efg% ftm/fga tov% or%
Michigan 1.19 58 40 0.36 58 0.29 15 26
Iowa 1.14 50 36 0.24 51 0.40 16 36
Wisconsin 1.14 52 32 0.37 50 0.31 11 26
Michigan State 1.12 48 39 0.35 52 0.26 14 31
Minnesota 1.10 53 35 0.33 53 0.29 17 31
Ohio State 1.03 47 34 0.33 48 0.30 15 30
Penn State 1.02 47 29 0.38 45 0.27 14 30
Indiana 1.01 43 38 0.29 47 0.30 19 35
Purdue 1.01 43 29 0.28 43 0.24 14 36
Nebraska 0.99 45 35 0.35 48 0.24 17 27
Illinois 0.96 42 27 0.33 42 0.21 13 30
Northwestern 0.89 45 26 0.40 43 0.20 16 19

Michigan had another fantastic shooting night against Purdue to cover up a season high where they turned it over on 25% of possessions, but in Bloomington there was nothing to save them from their first poor shooting night in conference play.  Wisconsin hit 5 out of 24 three point attempts against Northwestern, then followed that with 3 out of 17 against Ohio State.  At this point I'm forced to call the Badgers and Wolverines twins, and with this set of twins the opponent is insignificant.  They can beat, or lose to anyone based entirely upon how well they shoot basketball.  Michigan State followed up an overtime full of desperation three point makes against Iowa with an ugly loss to Georgetown.  It was a really bad week for the top of the conference and might be the sign of a tough March ahead.

Ohio State is going to watch another opponent shoot a ton of free throws as they begin the week with a trip to Iowa City.  The Hawkeyes are living at the foul line in conference play and are getting 36% of their offensive boards so it would take a mountain of turnovers by Iowa to keep this game close.  Then a Purdue outfit who has lost four in a row comes to Columbus.  Here's hoping to more good play and more minutes for Amedeo Della Valle.

Comments

Mortc15's picture

This is an extremely detailed account of the conference, and although not all stats may be relevant to winning and/or losing, this shows that more goes into winning than just one stat.
I compare this analysis to the one of about 5-6 years ago in the NFL. Of the final 8 teams left in the playoffs during that given year (can't remember for sure which year), 7 of them ranked in the top 8 for the entire regular season in 3rd down conversion percentage. That's only one stat, but seems to be a good indicator of success, at least for that particular season.

Buck-I4Life