B1G Basketball Team Stats (2/11/14)

thePhilipJFry's picture
February 10, 2014 at 8:18p
7 Comments

These stats are for B1G play only.

Key:

Pace (possessions per game)
Off (offensive efficiency, this is points per possession)
Def (defensive efficiency, this is points allowed per possession on defense)
Margin (off-def)

  pace off  def
Iowa 67.7  1.15 1.01 0.137
Michigan State 65.4 1.11 0.99  0.121
Michigan 60.8 1.19 1.07 0.112
Wisconsin  62.2 1.13 1.05 0.083
Ohio State 65.2 1.05 1.00 0.047
Indiana 63.1 1.01 1.02 -0.008
Minnesota 64.9 1.08 1.10 -0.015
Purdue 66.5 0.99  1.06 -0.069
Penn State 64.2  1.02 1.09 -0.069
Nebraska 63.5 0.96  1.06 -0.094
Illinois  64.1 0.98 1.09 -0.108
Northwestern 61.1 0.88 1.01 -0.133

Iowa once again tops the league in efficiency margin while the conference leaders trail close behind. 

Dean Oliver has his “four factors of basketball success” (http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/factors.html).  I thought I’d bring you a little expanded version of this.  I broke down effective field goal percentage into 2 point percentage and 3 point percentage.  Defensive 3 point percentage defense isn’t really a thing:  http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/3_point_defense_should_not_be_defined_by_opponents_3p

So you can think of that as a sort of luck factor (although if you watched MSU go under ball screens on Nik Stauskus you can probably expect MSU opponents’ 3pt% to go up). 

Key

Def (defensive efficiency, this is points allowed per possession on defense)
2pt% (percentage of 2pt shots made)
3pt% (percentage of 3pt shots made)
3pa/fga (percentage of shot that are attempted from 3pt land)
Efg% (effective field goal percentage: (FG + 0.5 * 3P) / FGA)
Ftm/fga (made free throws divided by field goal attempts, a measure of how large a part of offense or defense free throws are)
Tov% (turnover percentage, TOV / (FGA + 0.44 * FTA + TOV))
Drb% (defensive rebounding percentage, DRB / (Opp ORB + DRB))
Off (offensive efficiency, this is points per possession)
Orb% (offensive rebound percentage, ORB / (ORB + Opp DRB))

Defense

  def 2pt%  3pt% 3pa/fga efg% ftm/fga tov% drb%
Michigan State 0.99 0.42 0.35 0.37 0.46 0.34 0.17 0.68
Ohio State 1.00 0.52 0.29 0.31 0.49 0.21 0.18 0.68
Iowa 1.01 0.47 0.33 0.37 0.48 0.27 0.16 0.74
Northwestern 1.01 0.45 0.30 0.32 0.45 0.25 0.14 0.70
Indiana 1.02 0.51 0.31 0.35 0.49 0.22 0.16 0.74
Wisconsin 1.05 0.45 0.34 0.23 0.47 0.19 0.12 0.69
Nebraska 1.06 0.52 0.37 0.37 0.53 0.27 0.17 0.76
Purdue 1.06 0.51 0.31 0.37 0.49 0.28 0.14 0.73
Michigan 1.07 0.50 0.34 0.32 0.50 0.21 0.15 0.68
Illinois 1.09 0.48 0.35 0.35 0.49 0.30 0.16 0.68
Penn State 1.09 0.42 0.37 0.37 0.47 0.34 0.14 0.66
Minnesota 1.10 0.47 0.37 0.35 0.50 0.30 0.14 0.67

  Don't be fooled by these stats the best defense in the B1G right now is Northwestern,  They played their first three games as the worst defense in the B1G allowing 1.3 points per possession, then switched over to some insane point stopping, possession limiting machine sent back from the future to ruin your enjoyment of college basketball forever.  For your own safety, don't look directly at a Northwestern basketball game.
 

   off 2pt% 3pt%   3pa/fga efg%  ftm/fga tov%  or%
Michigan 1.19 0.57 0.40 0.40 0.58 0.28 0.16 0.26
Iowa 1.15 0.50 0.36 0.25 0.51 0.37 0.15 0.37
Wisconsin 1.13 0.52 0.34 0.39 0.51 0.33 0.12 0.25
Michigan State 1.11 0.48 0.39 0.35 0.52 0.24 0.14 0.31
Minnesota 1.08 0.52 0.34 0.32 0.52 0.26 0.17 0.31
Ohio State 1.05 0.48 0.35 0.33 0.49 0.29 0.15 0.29
Penn State 1.02 0.46 0.28 0.38 0.45 0.26 0.14 0.30
Indiana 1.01 0.43 0.38 0.29 0.47 0.29 0.20 0.35
Purdue 0.99 0.43 0.30 0.27 0.44 0.21 0.15 0.37
Illinois 0.98 0.42 0.28 0.33 0.42 0.23 0.13 0.29
Nebraska 0.96 0.45 0.34 0.36 0.47 0.23 0.17 0.25
Northwestern 0.88 0.45 0.27 0.40 0.43 0.19 0.16 0.19

  Michigan continues to be the best offense in the B1G, and it is because they hit shots at a rate nobody else does.  The few teams that have found success against the Wolverine offense have found it by forcing the ball out of Nik Stauskas's hands.  Stauskas averages 10.4 shots/game in Michigan's conference victories, while only getting 12 shots combined in the two losses.  Ohio State's work is certainly cut out for them Tuesday, but the defensive game plan should be clear.
 

Comments

bukyze's picture

Nice stats.  Thanks for sharing.

bigbadbuck's picture

Go Bucks! Beat Missagain!

BucksfanXC's picture

Good stuff, thanks for this!

“Any time you give a man something he doesn't earn, you cheapen him. Our kids earn what they get, and that includes respect.”  - Woody

Jack Fu's picture

The formula for OSU's defense continues: don't let the opponent shoot threes, don't put them on the line, and force turnovers. Being able to do the latter two simultaneously is probably the biggest key. Thank you, Scott, Craft, and the officials who let Craft get away with just a little bit more than they probably should.

+1 HS
thePhilipJFry's picture

Excellent point on the ability of the Ohio State defense to force turnovers without fouling.  This has been a signature of Matta's teams everywhere he has been, and probably the key to his success.

By the way Wisconsin continues to be incredible at chasing shooters off the three point line.  If they learn how to rebound and force turnovers that defense could lead them.  Hat tip to you Bo Ryan.

Ohio State's opponents 3pt% is unrealistically low right now, I fear Michigan's offense may correct that a bit tonight.

+1 HS
d5k's picture

Kenpom updated that post refuting some of his earlier generalizations about 3 point % D.

http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/one_last_post_on_3p_defense

My theory:

In general teams are trying to get layups or open 3's and teams that take away one of those without over-helping or with better recovery speed tend to take away the other as well.  By "take away" I mean lower their shot quality or long run efficiency on those shots.  Pomeroy in his first article wasn't looking at the correlation between teams that are good at denying good 2 point looks and denying good 3 point looks.

+1 HS
thePhilipJFry's picture

The executive summary from the updated post is:

However, even the best teams are only producing about a 3% influence on opponents 3P%

and that was with 5 full seasons worth of data.  Within a given conference season (or partial season as we look at here) any significant difference in opponents 3p% is either due to schedule (such as Michigan's defense not having to defend against Michigan's excellent 3 point shooting offense) or luck.

+2 HS