NKOHL ratings week 7

Nkohl13's picture
October 15, 2013 at 3:50p
10 Comments

Today's polls all seem to be based on perception's, opinion, and bias. I have attempted to create a ranking system that will rank all teams equally and fairly without any human element. The system is simple. When a team beats another team they gain points. Points are determined by the opponent's number of win's in their last twelve games, because 12 games is the equivalent of one season. So for example if you beat a good team with ten wins in their last twelve games you will get a reward of ten points, and if you beat a bad team with only two wins in their last twelve games you are only rewarded with two points. However when a team loses a game they will be penalized points. When a team loses to another team they get the number of losses the other team had subtracted from their score. So for example if you loose to a good team that has only one loss in their last twelve games you have one point subtracted, and if you lose to a bad team that has ten losses then you will loose ten points. If you beat an FCS school you will earn their win total divided by two. If you lose to an FCS school you will have their loss total subtracted times two. So beating an eight win FCS team gets you four points, and also if you lose to a four loss FCS team then you lose eight points. This poll has a strong affect from the strength of a teams schedule. The worse the schedule is the harder it is to gain points. This is what I came up with.

# Mov Team Points W-L conf
1 +1 Missouri +45 6-0 SEC
2 +3 Clemson +35.5 6-0 ACC
T +6 Virginia Tech +35.5 6-1 ACC
4 0 Ohio State +33.5 6-0 B1G
5 -4 Oklahoma +33 5-1 Big 12
6 +8 LSU +32.5 6-1 SEC
7 -1 Alabama +31 6-0 SEC
T +4 South Carolina +31 5-1 SEC
T +6 Texas A&M +31 5-1 SEC
10 -7 Stanford +28 5-1 PAC 12
T +9 Baylor +28 5-0 Big 12
12 -2 Fresno State +26.5 5-0 MWC
T +10 Louisville +26.5 6-0 AAC
14 -3 Florida State +26 5-0 ACC
15 -9 Michigan +25 5-1 B1G
16 +2 Texas Tech +24.5 6-0 Big 12
17 +2 UCLA +24 5-0 PAC 12
T +6 Houston +24 5-0 AAC
19 +13 Oregon +23.5 6-0 PAC 12
T -3 Auburn +23.5 5-1 SEC
21 -5 Miami FL +23 5-0 ACC
22 -8 Washington +22.5 4-2 PAC 12
23 -14 Georgia +22 4-2 SEC
24 -3 Northern Illinois +21.5 6-0 MAC
T +17 Utah +21.5 4-2 PAC 12
26 +4 Maryland +20 5-1 ACC
27 +6 Ball State +19 6-1 MAC
28 -4 Notre Dame +18 4-2 Indp.
T +5 Michigan State +18 5-1 B1G
T +16 Penn State +18 4-2 B1G
T +11 BYU +18 4-2 Indp.
32 +13 Tulane +17.5 5-2 C-USA
33 -7 Oklahoma State +17 4-1 Big 12
34 -4 UCF +16 4-1 AAC
35 +1 Arizona State +14 4-2 PAC 12
T -9 Florida +14 4-2 SEC
37 +21 Texas +13 4-2 Big 12
38 -13 Northwestern +11.5 4-2 B1G
39 +21 Wisconsin +11 4-2 B1G
T -6 Rutgers +11 4-2 AAC
41 +8 Nebraska +10.5 5-1 B1G
T +23 Boise State +10.5 4-2 MWC
43 +17 USC +10 4-2 PAC 12
T +9 Rice +10 4-2 C-USA
T -17 East Carolina +10 4-2 C-USA
46 +23 Duke +9 4-2 ACC
47 -2 Illinois +8.5 3-2 B1G
T -2 Iowa +8.5 4-2 B1G
T -18 Bowling Green +8.5 5-2 MAC
50 -9 Ole Miss +7.5 3-3 SEC
T +10 Old Dominion +7.5 4-2 Indp.
52 -16 Ohio +7 4-2 MAC
T -13 Pitt +7 3-2 ACC
T +13 Syracuse +7 3-3 ACC
55 -17 Indiana +6.5 3-3 B1G
T -4 Buffalo +6.5 4-2 MAC
57 +8 Oregon State +6 5-1 PAC 12
58 -17 N.C. State +5.5 3-3 ACC
59 -7 Tennessee +5 3-3 SEC
60 -6 Minnesota +4.5 4-2 B1G
61 +8 Marshall +4 4-2 C-USA
62 -7 Boston College +3 3-3 ACC
63 +23 Mississippi State +2.5 3-3 SEC
64 +5 TCU +2 3-3 Big 12
T +21 North Texas +2 3-3 C-USA
66 -17 Georgia Tech +1.5 3-3 ACC
67 -19 Arizona +1 3-2 PAC 12
T -2 Toledo +1 3-3 MAC
T -2 Western Kentucky +1 4-2 Sun Belt
T +8 Wyoming +1 4-2 MWC
71 +2 UNLV +.5 4-2 MWC
72 -12 Arkansas -1 3-4 SEC
73 -16 Washington State -1.5 4-3 PAC 12
74 +1 Nevada -2 3-3 MWC
T +14 SJSU -2 3-3 MWC
76 +2 West Virginia -2.5 3-3 Big 12
77 -19 Colorado -3 2-3 PAC 12
T +3 Wake Forest -3 3-3 ACC
79 -24 Navy -4 3-2 Indp.
T +3 Louisiana Lafayette -4 3-2 Sun Belt
81 -8 Utah State -4.5 3-4 MWC
82 -2 Kent State -5 2-5 MAC
83 -1 Kansas State -7 2-4 Big 12
T +5 North Carolina -7 1-4 ACC
T +9 Cincinnati -7 4-2 AAC
T +11 SDSU -7 3-3 MWC
87 -15 Virginia -8 2-4 ACC
T -5 Memphis -8 1-4 AAC
89 +4 Troy -8.5 4-3 Sun Belt
90 -15 Texas State -9 3-3 Sun Belt
91 +7 Arkansas State -10 3-3 Sun Belt
T +3 Vanderbilt -10 3-3 SEC
93 -3 Purdue -10.5 1-5 B1G
T -15 Kansas -10.5 2-3 Big 12
T +8 Army -10.5 3-4 Indp.
96 -5 Colorado State -11 2-4 MWC
T -2 Kentucky -11 1-5 SEC
98 +12 Central Michigan -12 3-4 MAC
99 -5 Cal -13 1-5 PAC 12
T +5 Tulsa -13 2-4 C-USA
101 +8 ULM -13.5 3-4 Sun Belt
102 -16 Middle Tennessee -14.5 3-4 C-USA
103 -1 SMU -15 1-4 AAC
104 -5 UTSA -16 2-5 C-USA
105 +8 UAB -16.5 2-4 C-USA
106 -2 Akron -17 1-6 MAC
T +8 USF -17 2-4 AAC
108 -9 FAU -19 2-5 C-USA
T +2 South Alabama -19 2-3 Sun Belt
110 -2 Air Force -21 1-6 MWC
111 -7 New Mexico -22 2-4 MWC
112 -2 Iowa State -23 1-4 Big 12
113 -10 Eastern Michigan -24.5 1-5 MAC
114 -10 FIU -25 1-5 C-USA
T +3 UMASS -25 1-5 MAC
116 0 Idaho -28 1-6 Indp.
117 +1 Louisiana Tech -28.5 2-4 C-USA
118 +4 Southern Miss -31 0-5 C-USA
119 -4 Hawaii -32 0-6 MWC
120 -1 Temple -34 0-6 AAC
121 -2 UTEP -36 1-5 C-USA
122 -3 UCONN -40 0-5 AAC
123 +1 Georgia State -45 0-6 Sun Belt
124 -1 Miami OH -48 0-6 MAC
125 0 Western Michigan -56 0-7 MAC

Now lets go even further. This time I decided to take the average point total of every conference and rank them accordingly. 

# conference avg points
1 SEC 15.929
2 B1G 12.083
3 PAC 12 11.083
4 ACC 11.071
5 Big 12 7.45
6 AAC -4.35
7 MWC -5.25
8 MAC -9.538
9 C-USA -11.143
10 Sun Belt -13.5

So please, (insert sports "expert" here), tell me how much the B1G sucks.

Comments

dwcbuckeye's picture

At first glance I would say "Missouri # 1 really?  An Oklahoma team that got shellacked #5?"
Not to pick on your ranking methodology because this is an interesting effort, but it just shows you the problem with computer based polls.  Yours is actually probably more objective than the BCS computers.  How else would they rank Alabama so high when they have only played one decent team (A&M) and frankly haven't looked that dominating. 
 
Again, this is an interesting effort of taking the human quality out of the equation.  And although computers may have the upper hand in Chess, I don't think they are particularly close to humans when judging the quality of football being played.  At least not now.

Optimistic Buckeye Pessimist's picture

Not really flawed, not yet anyways....I'd expect that things start leveling out as the season progresses.  I'm most interested to see how this poll finishes.

RedStorm45's picture

Va Tech ahead of Alabama?

Nkohl13's picture

It's mostly to do with the fact that Va Tech has played 7 games. The Bama loss was only a -1 for VT and their other six wins earned them enough points to put them ahead of Bama despite their -1. I imagine VT will drop a bit when they have a bye week and the teams around them have played the same amount of games.

1MechEng's picture

How about taking the total and dividing by the number of games played this year? This would help to even out the rankings and account for bye weeks?

Optimistic Buckeye Pessimist's picture

Any thoughts on how to work in home field advantage as I suggested last time?  A home/away outcome multiplier?
Love the effort and idea!

Nkohl13's picture

It is a posibillity but I would have to go through every game that has been played and adjust every point outcome to do that so for now I think I'm just going to keep it as it is.

shortbus20's picture

Thanks for the different perspective on the political BCS crap.  Very creative and time consuming I imagine. Appreciate it.

  • shortbus20
RedStorm45's picture

Will the formula be updated at season's end?  I get that the team picks up points based on the opponents last 12 games and their amount of wins - but would/could/will you update it at season's end?  So Bama will pick up all of Va Tech's wins in 2013 as points as opposed to the previous 12 games (aka last year)?  I'm not sure if I'm making sense, or understanding the formula incorrectly.

Nkohl13's picture

I wasn't planning on doing it that way, but it might not be too hard to do so I might try it out that way at the end of the year just to see how they compare.