Are we really overrated?

Nkohl13's picture
October 8, 2013 at 3:01p
43 Comments

Today's polls all seem to be based on perception's, opinion, and bias. I have attempted to create a ranking system that will rank all teams equally and fairly without any human element. The system is simple. When a team beats another team they gain points. Points are determined by the opponent's number of win's in their last twelve games, because 12 games is the equivalent of one season. So for example if you beat a good team with ten wins in their last twelve games you will get a reward of twelve points, and if you beat a bad team with only two wins in their last twelve games you are only rewarded with two points. However when a team loses a game they will be penalized points. When a team loses to another team they get the number of losses the other team had subtracted from their score. So for example if you loose to a good team that has only one loss in their last twelve games you have one point subtracted, and if you lose to a bad team that has ten losses then you will loose ten points. If you beat an FCS school you will earn their win total divided by two. If you lose to an FCS school you will have their loss total subtracted times two. So beating an eight win FCS team gets you four points, and also if you lose to a four loss FCS team then you lose eight points. This poll has a strong affect from the strength of a teams schedule. The worse the schedule is the harder it is to gain points. This is what I came up with.

# team points w-l conf
1 Oklahoma +37 5-0 Big 12
2 Missouri +35 5-0 SEC
3 Stanford +34 5-0 PAC 12
4 Ohio State +33.5 6-0 B1G
5 Clemson +31.5 5-0 ACC
6 Michigan +29 5-0 B1G
T Alabama +29 5-0 SEC
8 Virginia Tech +28.5 5-1 ACC
9 Georgia +27 4-1 SEC
10 Fresno State +26.5 5-0 MWC
11 Florida State +26 5-0 ACC
T South Carolina +26 4-1 SEC
13 Texas A&M +24 4-1 SEC
14 Washington +23.5 4-1 PAC 12
T LSU +23.5 5-1 SEC
16 Miami (FL) +23 5-0 ACC
T Auburn +23 4-1 SEC
18 Texas Tech +21.5 5-0 Big 12
19 Baylor +21 4-0 Big 12
T UCLA +21 4-0 PAC 12
21 Northern Illinois +20.5 5-0 MAC
22 Louisville +19.5 5-0 AAC
23 Houston +19 4-0 AAC
24 Notre Dame +18 4-2 Indp.
25 Northwestern +17.5 4-1 B1G
26 Oklahoma State +17 4-1 Big 12
T Florida +17 4-1 SEC
T East Carolina +17 4-1 C-USA
29 Bowling Green +16.5 5-1 MAC
30 Maryland +16 5-1 ACC
T UCF +16 4-1 AAC
32 Oregon +15.5 5-0 PAC 12
33 Michigan State +13 4-1 B1G
T Rutgers +13 4-1 AAC
T Ball State +13 5-1 MAC
36 Ohio +12 4-1 MAC
T Arizona State +12 3-2 PAC 12
38 Indiana +11.5 3-2 B1G
39 Pitt +11 3-1 ACC
T BYU +11 3-2 Indp.
41 Utah +9.5 3-2 PAC 12
T Ole Miss +9.5 3-2 SEC
T N.C. State +9.5 3-2 ACC
44 Penn State +9 3-2 B1G
45 Illinois +8.5 3-2 B1G
T Iowa +8.5 4-2 B1G
T Tulane +8.5 4-2 C-USA
48 Arizona +8 3-1 PAC 12
49 Nebraska +6.5 4-1 B1G
T Georgia Tech +6.5 3-2 ACC
51 Buffalo +5.5 3-2 MAC
52 Rice +5 3-2 C-USA
T Tennessee +5 3-3 SEC
54 Minnesota +4.5 4-2 B1G
55 Boston College +4 3-2 ACC
T Navy +4 3-1 Indp.
57 Washington State +3.5 4-2 PAC 12
58 Colorado +3 2-2 PAC12
T Texas +3 3-2 Big 12
60 Wisconsin +2 3-2 B1G
T Arkansas +2 3-3 SEC
T USC +2 3-2 PAC 12
T Old Dominion +2 4-2 Indp
64 Boise State +1.5 3-2 MWC
65 Toledo +1 3-3 MAC
T Syracuse +1 2-3 ACC
T Oregon State +1 4-1 PAC 12
T Western Kentucky +1 4-2 Sun Belt
69 Duke 0 3-2 ACC
T Marshall 0 3-2 C-USA
T TCU 0 2-3 Big 12
72 Virginia -1 2-3 ACC
73 UNLV -1.5 3-2 MWC
T Utah State -1.5 3-3 MWC
75 Nevada -2 3-3 MWC
T Wyoming -2 3-2 MWC
T Texas State -2 3-2 Sun Belt
78 Kansas -2.5 2-2 Big 12
T West Virginia -2.5 3-3 Big 12
80 Wake Forest -3 3-3 ACC
T Kent State -3 2-4 MAC
82 Kansas State -4 2-3 Big 12
T Memphis -4 1-3 AAC
T Louisiana Lafayette -4 3-2 Sun Belt
85 North Texas -5 2-3 C-USA
86 Middle Tennessee -6.5 3-3 C-USA
T Mississippi State -6.5 2-3 SEC
88 SJSU -7 2-3 MWC
T North Carolina -7 1-4 ACC
90 Purdue -7.5 1-4 B1G
91 Colorado State -8 2-3 MWC
92 Cincinnati -9 3-2 AAC
93 Troy -9.5 3-3 Sun Belt
94 SDSU -10 2-3 MWC
T Cal -10 1-4 PAC 12
T Kentucky -10 1-4 SEC
T Vanderbilt -10 3-3 SEC
98 Arkansas State -11 2-3 Sun Belt
99 UTSA -13 2-4 C-USA
T FAU -13 2-4 C-USA
101 Army -13.5 2-4 Indp.
102 SMU -15 1-4 AAC
103 Eastern Michigan -15.5 1-4 MAC
104 FIU -16 1-4 C-USA
T Tulsa -16 1-4 C-USA
T Akron -16 1-5 MAC
T New Mexico -16 2-3 MWC
108 Air Force -17 1-5 MWC
109 ULM -18.5 2-4 Sun Belt
110 Iowa State -19 1-3 Big 12
T Central Michigan -19 2-4 MAC
T South Alabama -19 2-3 Sun Belt
113 UAB -19.5 1-4 C-USA
114 USF -20 1-4 AAC
115 Hawaii -24 0-5 MWC
116 Idaho -25 1-5 Indp
117 UMASS -26 0-5 MAC
118 Louisiana Tech -28.5 2-4 C-USA
119 UCONN -30 0-4 AAC
T Temple -30 0-5 AAC
T UTEP -30 1-4 C-USA
122 Southern Miss. -31 0-5 C-USA
123 Miami (OH) -37 0-5 MAC
124 Georgia State -38 0-5 Sun Belt
125 Western Michigan - 50 0-6 MAC
         

So how bad is our strength of schedule? What really stands out to me is seeing Oregon at number thirty-two, yet everybody seems to be fixed on our strength of schedule. You can also see that teams like Fresno State and Northern Illinois get much more respect in this poll than the pollsters are willing to give them. We sit at number four right now, but we are set up to drop a couple spots because of our bye week. A few teams behind us might be able to jump ahead of us because we won't gain any points. 

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