Eleven Warriors

Just found this interesting because I saw on the crawl that of the ESPN U Top 150 that 53 of them signed with SEC schools today according to the WWL.  So I got curious and checked out Scout and Rivals, here is the breakdown

ESPN Top 150

SEC : 53

PAC : 24

ACC : 23

Big XII : 21

B1G : 12

Rivals Top 150

SEC : 41

PAC : 32

ACC : 26

Big XII : 16

B1G : 15

Scout Top 150

SEC : 47

PAC : 26

B1G : 24

ACC : 17

Big XII : 16

Max Preps Top 150

SEC : 39

PAC : 29

B1G : 25

ACC : 18

Big XII : 14

247 Top 150

SEC : 43

PAC : 28

ACC : 22

B1G : 17

Big XII : 15

Of course you have to account for the SEC having 14 teams, but they dominated all the lists.  However, they were really dominant on the ESPN list and not so surprisingly the B1G had the fewest top 150 on the ESPNU list.  Just found it interesting.  After a while you just have to laugh.

The Pro Bowl is this weekend.  That might be the worst collection of 6 words ever written.  Step aside John Rocker, Ann Coulter, Joe Biden, Michael Savage, Howard Stern or anyone else who utters offensive/stupid phrases.  You have met your match.  THE PRO BOWL IS THIS WEEKEND.  Game, set and match.  Your wicked tongues cannot top that horrifying sentence. 

I can't think of a bigger waste of time than the NFL Pro Bowl.  Seriously, I would rather watch a reality show about hoarders of empty toilet paper tubes or used diapers than suffer through the NFL All-Star/Replacement Star/Alternate Star/Warm Body Game.  There is UFC on Fox this weekend.  Meh.  By itself that is hardly enough to draw my attention.  There are some CBB games of course, and regular season NBA games.  Again........flat-lining.  Oh I forgot about the Aussie Open.  How could I?  While I love a good tennis match I don't love them enough to watch them in the middle of the night.  Federer-Nadal at 3:30 a.m. actually sounds like punishment for an insomniac, or maybe it's actually a cure.  SO............opportunity knocks, or it texts/tweets, I mean who knocks anymore?

I implore you my friends to help me in my quest to invent the ultimate Sports-Entertainment Event to fill the void in our souls that is created by NFL Pro Bowl Week.  So here is what I am thinking.  NASCAR kick off race, College Basketball on top of a very tall building (they did an aircraft carrier already), Beyonce and Jay-Z, NHL Hockey on a melting arctic ice sheet with polar bears nearby, Steven Tyler and Paula Abdul, NBA in an arena with only black lights and Tim Donaghy officiating, Kool and the Gang featuring KC and the Sunshine Band, UFC on Fox (what the hell keep in there) and I'm spent. 

It could start at noon on Saturday and run through prime-time Sunday night.  It would be epically epic in its epicness, and we could call it "Not The NFL Pro Bowl" brought to you by Instant Gratification.com.

Initially posted at http://www.thebestdamnpoll.com

This is a statistical analysis of bowl games.  I took national rankings in 13 different categories to give each bowl team a score.  The categories were total offense, total defense, scoring offense, scoring defense, penalties, turnover margin, time of possession, 3rd down conversions, opponents 3rd down conversions, red zone efficiency, opponents red zone efficiency, opponents record, and team record.

I looked at each match up and gave each game a title of either a PUSH (less than 10 point differential between team scores), SOLID (10-20 point differential between team scores) or BLOWOUT (greater than 20 point differential between team scores).

Here is the breakdown by score ranking and each teams score.

1. Alabama 9.6
2. Wisconsin 19.7
3. Michigan 20.7
4. Stanford 22.0
5. Boise State 24.5
6. LSU 24.7
7. Virginia Tech 28.6
8. Oklahoma 30.9
9. Georgia 32.4
10. TCU 35.7
11. Temple 36.2
12. Houston 37.0
13. Oklahoma State 37.5
14. Michigan State 37.7
15. South Carolina 38.9
16. Georgia Tech 39.3
17. Toledo 39.7
18. Arkansas State 40.3
19. Kansas State 41.2
20. Arkansas 42.3
21. BYU 42.4
22. Rutgers 44.6
23. North Carolina State 44.7
24. Oregon 44.8
24. Nevada 44.8
26. Clemson 46.0
26. California 46.0
28 Southern Mississippi 46.1
29. Missouri 46.4
30. Illinois 47.1
31. Texas 48.4
32. Nebraska 48.5
32. Notre Dame 48.5
34. Virginia 50.5
35. Florida State 50.7
36. Mississippi State 51.3
37. West Virginia 51.5
38. Ohio State 51.6
39. Air Force 52.1
40. Ohio 52.9
41. Cincinnati 53.5
42. Wyoming 54.2
43. San Diego State 54.3
43. North Carolina 54.3
45. SMU 54.5
45. Iowa 54.5
47. Louisville 54.8
48. Florida International 56.1
49. Texas A&M 56.3
50. Tulsa 56.6
51. Western Michigan 56.8
52. Penn State 57.0
53. Vanderbilt 57.2
54. Arizona State 57.3
55. Northern Illinois 57.4
56. Utah State 57.8
57. Louisiana Tech 58.4
58. Utah 58.5
59. Pittsburgh 59.3
60. Northwestern 59.5
61. Wake Forest 62.1
62. Florida 62.8
63. Baylor 64.0
64. Washington 64.4
65. Marshall 66.8
66. Louisiana Lafayette 68.9
67. Iowa State 69.6
68. Purdue 74.3
69. Auburn 75.8
70. UCLA 82.7

Here are the games.  I call a home game one in which the home team travels around 150 miles or fewer to the destination. 

New Mexico Bowl - Albuquerque December 17th
Temple 36.2 vs Wyoming 54.2
SOLID Temple

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl - Boise December 17th
Ohio 52.9 vs Utah State 57.8
PUSH Ohio

New Orleans Bowl - New Orleans December 17th
Louisiana Lafayette 68.9 vs San Diego State 54.3
SOLID SDSU
Home Game for Louisiana Lafayette

Beef O'Brady's Bowl - St. Petersburg December 20th
Florida International 56.1 vs Marshall 66.8
SOLID FIU

Poinsettia Bowl - San Diego December 21st
TCU 35.7 vs Louisiana Tech 58.4
BLOWOUT TCU

Las Vegas Bowl - Las Vegas December 22nd
Boise State 24.5 vs Arizona State 57.3
BLOWOUT Boise State

Hawaii Bowl - Honolulu December 24th
Nevada 44.8 vs Southern Mississippi 46.1
PUSH Nevada

Independence Bowl - Shreveport December 26th
Missouri 46.4 vs North Carolina 54.3
PUSH Missouri

Little Caesars Bowl - Detroit December 27th
Purdue 74.3 vs Western Michigan 56.8
SOLID Western Michigan
Home game for WMU

Belk Bowl - Charlotte December 27th
North Carolina State 44.7 vs Louisville 54.8
SOLID NC State
Home game for NC State

Military Bowl - Washington December 28th
Air Force 52.1 vs Toledo 39.7
SOLID Toledo

Holiday Bowl - San Diego December 28th
California 46.0 vs Texas 48.4
PUSH Cal

Champs Sports Bowl - Orlando December 29th
Notre Dame 48.5 vs Florida State 50.7
PUSH Notre Dame

Alamo Bowl - San Antonio December 29th
Baylor 64.0 vs Washington 64.4
PUSH Baylor
Home game for Baylor

Armed Forces Bowl - Dallas December 30th
BYU 42.4 vs Tulsa 56.6
SOLID BYU

Pinstripe Bowl - New York December 30th
Rutgers 44.6 vs Iowa State 69.6
BLOWOUT Rutgers
Home game for Rutgers

Music City Bowl - Nashville December 30th
Mississippi State 51.3 vs Wake Forest 62.1
SOLID Miss State

Insight Bowl - Tempe December 30th
Iowa 54.5 vs Oklahoma 30.9
BLOWOUT OU

Texas Bowl - Houston December 31st
Northwestern 59.5 vs Texas A&M 56.3
PUSH TAMU
Home game for Texas A&M

Sun Bowl - El Paso December 31st
Georgia Tech 39.3 vs Utah 58.5
SOLID GTech

Liberty Bowl - Memphis December 31st
Cincinnati 53.5 vs Vanderbilt 57.2
PUSH Cincy
Home game for Vandy

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl - San Francisco December 31st
Illinois 47.1 vs UCLA 82.7
BLOWOUT Illinois

Chick-Fil-A Bowl - Atlanta December 31st
Auburn 75.8 vs Virginia 50.5
BLOWOUT UVA
Home game for Auburn

Ticket City Bowl - Dallas January 2nd
Houston 37.0 vs Penn State 57.0
BLOWOUT Houston

Capitol One Bowl - Orlando January 2nd
Nebraska 48.5 vs South Carolina 38.9
PUSH South Carolina

Gator Bowl - Jacksonville January 2nd
Florida 62.8 vs Ohio State 51.6
SOLID Ohio State
Home game for Florida

Outback Bowl - Tampa January 2nd
Michigan State 37.7 vs Georgia 32.4
PUSH Georgia

Cotton Bowl - Dallas January 6th
Arkansas 42.3 vs Kansas State 41.2
PUSH K-State

BBVA Compass Bowl - Birmingham January 7th
Pitt 59.3 vs SMU 54.5
PUSH SMU

GoDaddy.com Bowl - Mobile January 8th
Arkansas State 40.3 vs Northern Illinois 57.4
SOLID Arkansas State

Rose Bowl - Pasadena January 2nd
Wisconsin 19.7 vs Oregon 44.8
BLOWOUT Wisconsin

Fiesta Bowl - Glendale January 2nd
Stanford 22.0 vs Oklahoma State 37.5
SOLID Stanford

Sugar Bowl - New Orleans January 3rd
Michigan 20.7 vs Virginia Tech 28.6
PUSH Michigan

Orange Bowl - Miami January 4th
Clemson 46 vs West Virginia 51.5
PUSH Clemson

BCS Title Game - New Orleans January 9th
Alabama 9.6 vs LSU 24.7
SOLID Bama
Home game for LSU

2006 Florida Offense : 33.2 rushing attempts per game vs 28.5 passing attempts per game (54/46 split)

2006 Ohio State Offense : 36.7 rushing attempts per game vs 26.1 passing attempts per game (58/42 split)

2007 Florida Offense : 37.5 rushing attempts per game vs 27.8 passing attempts per game (57/43 split)

2007 Ohio State Offense : 42.6 rushing attempts per game vs 25.8 passing attempts per game (62/38 split)

2008 Florida Offense : 38.9 rushing attempts per game vs 23.5 passing attempts per game  (62/38 split)

2008 Ohio State Offense : 41.5 rushing attempts per game vs 20.5 passing attempts per game (67/33 split)

2009 Florida Offense : 39.6 rushing attempts per game vs 26.0 passing attempts per game (60/40 split)

2009 Ohio State Offense : 43.4 rushing attempts per game vs 24.2 passing attempts per game (64/36 split)

2010 Florida Offense : 38.7 rushing attempts per game vs 29.3 passing attempts per game (57/43 split)

2010 Ohio State Offense : 42.0 rushing attempts per game vs 26.8 passing attempts per game (63/37 split)

Just some numbers for those who have a perception about what an Urban Meyer offense is all about.

Here is the scenario

Team A plays against Team B.

Weather, low temperature of the day 53 degrees F, high temp 84 degrees F, avg wind speed 2.5 mph, precipitation 0.0 inches

Team A has 194 total yards of offense on 59 plays for an average of 3.3 yards per play against Team B.

Team B has given up at least 4.7 yards per play against all previous 6 opponents.  Team B has given up at least 6.5 yards per play against 2 of those 6 opponents.  Team that only gained 4.7 yards per play is currently 0-6.

Team A is starting a freshman QB who was the #9 QB in the 2011 recruiting class and they also play a freshman who was the #1 ranked Pro Style QB in the 2011 recruiting class.  Team A is starting a senior RB with over 2,000 career rushing yards and over 20 career TD's.  Team A is starting a senior WR with over 90 career receptions and another WR who was the #2 ranked WR in the country in the class of 2009.

Team B is the 98th ranked run defense in the country, even after giving up only 66 yards rushing to Team A.  Team B is the 89th ranked pass defense in the country even after giving up only 128 yards passing to Team A.  Team B is the 60th ranked scoring defense in the country, even after giving up only 6 points to Team A.

Team A has an offensive coordinator who has been a head coach in college football.  Team A's offensive coordinator has also been an offensive coordinator in the NFL.  He has won 3 Super Bowls as an offensive coordinator.

Yes, the Florida Gators with all of their offensive firepower and offensive coaching acumen have now gained fewer than 225 yards in 3 consecutive games.  Yes, a freshman QB completely changes the ability of an offense to succeed at a high level.  Yes, Florida had averaged over 450 yards per game prior to losing their experienced starting QB.

Seriously Buckeye fans, wake up to the reality that this offense has a complete dearth of experience on the offensive side of the ball at WR and QB.  Wake up to the fact that even a Super Bowl winning offensive coordinator is completely handcuffed by having no experience at QB.  NO MATTER HOW TALENTED THAT QB MIGHT BE.

I was listening to some Mizzou fans this morning on the radio discussing their beat down of Iowa State on Saturday.  They were thrilled that the Tigers ran the ball 58 times on Saturday and that Henry Josey (averaging 10 yards per carry this season) finally carried the ball a season high 19 times.  They suggested that the coaching staff might have finally listened to the public cries to do what the team does best.....run the ball.  While I doubt the motivation behind the coaching decision was public outcries, it seems that something changed in their offensive strategy.

Far from suggesting that Ohio State only throws the ball an average of 4 times per game for the remainder of the season I also have absolutely no problem with how the game was called against Illinois.  It resulted in a victory and it focused on what the Buckeyes do best.  It resulted in 4.1 yards per play for the game.  That number is pretty pedestrian by any measure of offenses in modern football, but once again it worked for THAT game.  The Bucks never trailed and there was absolutely no reason to risk an interception on a windy day.

By contrast Illinois threw the ball 34 times on Saturday.  For the game they averaged 4.1 yards per play.  They trailed for 55 minutes, and they turned the ball over 3 times.  They lost.

Illinois completed 20 passes on Saturday for an average of 5 yards per pass attempt.  Of those 20 completions 6 of them went for 4 yards or fewer.  So of the 34 passing attempts only 14 of them resulted in gains of 5 yards or more.  By contrast Ohio State had 21 running plays that gained 5 yards or more and 1 pass play that gained more than 5 yards.  Illinois had 11 running plays that resulted in 5 yards or more gained.  Total offensive plays gaining 5 yards or more were 22 for Ohio State and 25 for Illinois.

It was windy, OSU never trailed, and Miller and the receiving corp are a work in progress.  Why throw?  Just cuz isn't good enough for me.  You play to win the game not to appease public outcries or to pad stats.  Move on Buckeyes, Bucky is next.  Revenge is a dish best served cold and by running the ball.

The curse of #2 is in full effect.

Not only do we all have hallucinations of #2 arm punting and gliding his way past opposing defenders effortlessly, but so far this season the current #2's have been about as good as that other "Number Two".

Rod Smith played himself out of a role on the team with a couple of poorly timed fumbles, and with the return of Boom is doubtful to make his way between the lines against anyone not named Indiana.

The heartburn that Smith caused us as #2 is a distant memory by now though.  Smith was not going to make or break this team in the long run because of depth at RB.  He has a chance to become a contributor in 2012 or 2013 perhaps.

The other #2 is a source of much more consternation presently.  Christian Bryant has taken over the role at the revolving-door-safety-spot and his performance against Nebraska can only be summed up as an EPIC FAIL.  Bryant has been described as "fiery" and clearly enjoys making tackles and standing over the victim while talking noise.  He is very aggressive and is definitely the player most likely to get flagged for leading with his helmet.  However, in a couple of situations this past Saturday when being overly aggressive was the incorrect course of action #2 completely and blatantly  "Number Two'ed down his leg". 

While Smith's "Number Two" performances did lead to some heartburn Bryant's "Number Two" performances led to 14 points for the bad guys.  BRUTAL!!!!!

As anyone who has read my blogs will know I feel that Buckeye Nation is presently being punished by the Football Gods.  No clearer example exists to me than the fact that #2's have played so poorly this season.  Sure it's just a number and can't really mean anything.  However, with the wounds of the early 2011 so fresh and borderline gangrenous the #2 curse is very real in my mind.

Let's pray for a speedy exorcism.

Buckeye Nation, I beg you to repent, ask for forgiveness, sacrifice a chicken or something.

I know there are long suffering fan bases throughout this great nation.  I know there are lovable losers and plenty of folks who have had their collective hearts ripped out by their favorite sports teams, but I contend that being an Ohio State Buckeyes fan is as tough as it gets in the world of sports.

That statement will strike a chord with Buckeye fans, and it will likely flat out piss off fans of teams who have never been to the top of the mountain.  I can see the comments to follow, "I would take 50 seasons of losing for just 1 National Championship" or "you are a spoiled a-hole" or perhaps some even less flattering than those.  Well, you can't please everyone.

So it begs the question in my mind..........WHY????  What did Ohio State do to deserve such heartache???  Please someone tell me so we can atone and move on.  Move on to happy days filled with B1G championships and Heisman Trophies and crystal trophies.  At this point I would actually just be happy to move on to happy days without National TV embarrassments.  Forget about the championships for a bit, just give me a winning season and a win over Michigan.  How many Hail Mary's do I have to say for that?  How many chicken carcasses need to be in my trash bin to accomplish that modest goal?

The list is getting almost too long to bear.  Desmond Howard's pose, 41-14, 38-24, 0-9, 35-3 those were all really painful, however, some others have even been harder to stomach like 24-28 in 1998, 2-10-1, 22-25 in C-bus vs VY, 15-18 in 2009, 21-24 2009 Fiesta Bowl, Tatgate et. al, and now 27-34 in Lincoln.  PAIN.  NIGHTMARE.  CRUEL AND UNUSUAL.

What makes it soooooooooooo hard is that it seems to always come with a tease.  A late lead against VY's Texas.........dagger.  A late lead against USC in 2009...........dagger.  A late lead against Texas in the 2009 Fiesta Bowl...........dagger.  A win over an SEC team in a bowl............erased, and now 2011 Lincoln.  Feelings of hope and visions of victory all snatched away with a rolled ankle..................dagger.

Of course most of those losses come with a counterpart win.  1997 Rose, 2002 Michigan, 2002 Fiesta, 2006 Michigan, 2010 Rose and the feeling after 2011 Sugar will never be completely erased.  Celebration.  Joy.  Adrenaline Rush.  You know what though?  The pain lasts longer.  The pain hurts more.  The pain keeps you up at night.  The pain sucks.

So where do we go from here?  Of course we will press on.  We will cheer.  We will gnash teeth.  We will suffer and we will celebrate, but the pain has left scars that will never go away.  Perhaps that's just comes with the territory, but right now that doesn't seem to give me any comfort.