Looking at the Schedules, or, The Buckeye Fan's Rooting Guide to other games.

JKH1232's picture
October 7, 2013 at 10:43p
14 Comments

So, there's a lot on and on about how, if there are 3.45 undefeated teams, and a one loss Bama, then OSU is going to the Rose Bowl and that would be an absolute tragedy. (Disclaimer: I'm old enough to still think winning the Rose Bowl is awesome, and that's not sarcasm font, my friend.)  There's a lot of info about teams and schedules that gets put into comments on the various threads on the site, and I figured it would be useful to post it all on one place.  So, this is, as of Week 6 in NCAA season 2013, a list of undefeated teams by conference, with notable games left for them to play, and maybe some discussion about it.  I mean this mostly as a certain level of utility.  I'm also putting this together under a series of postulates.  I suppose you can argue with them, but I personally really won't- the list has all of these in mind, and if you don't like my assumptions, well, make your own list.  With your own assumptions.  And blackjack.  And hookers.

Assumption #1: OSU needs to be undefeated to get into the BCS Championship.  I don't think this is really that debatable, since I don't see our Strength of Schedule as quite enough to separate us from a morass of X-1 teams. 

Assumption #2: An undefeated team from a non-AQ conference will not play in the BCS Championship.  The never have, and I don't see it happening the last time, either.  So, I won't list non-AQ teams.

Assumption #3: Well, really more like a point: I don't see there being more than one or two undefeateds at the end of the year.  It's pretty rare.

American Athletics Conference

Louisville:

 vs Rutgers (10/10), vs UCF (10/18) vs. Houston.

Houston:

@ Rutgers, (10/26) @UCF (11/9) @ Louisville (11/16)

Notes: Obviously, both of these teams play each other, so one of them will not be undefeated at season's end.  Rutgers is a pretty good team, too, and either team might lose to them in addition.  That said, I would not be shocked of Louisville was still standing at the end of the season, but if there are three undefeateds and OSU and Louisville are two of them, I doubt Louisvillie will jump OSU.

Atlantic Coastal Conference:

Clemson:

vs Florida State (10/19), @ Maryland (10/26), @ South Carolina (11/30)

Florida State:

@Clemson (10/19), vs Miami (11/2), @ Florida (11/30)

Miami:

@Florida State (11/2) vs Virginia Tech (11/9)

Notes:  Obviously, there's also an ACC Championship Game in there for this conference, which also is more chances for someone to lose.  So, each of these schools play at least one of the others, so only two can go undefeated (If FSU loses to both Miami and Clemson.) Somehow, I don't see Miami going unscathed regardless of the situation, and I don't see the winner of FSU vs Clemson getting past their SEC rivalry game at the end of the year either.  Especially Clemson.  (Because, Fuck Clemson.)  So, I think we root for Clemson over FSU, FSU over Miami and South Carolina over Clemson.  Or, that's how I'll be rooting, for no really good reason, I guess.

The Big XII

Oklahoma:

vs Texas (10/12), vs Texas Tech (10/26), @Baylor (11/7),  @ Oklahoma State (12/7).

Texas Tech

@ Oklahoma (10/26), vs Oklahoma State (11/2),  vs Baylor (11/16)

Baylor:

vs. Oklahoma (11/7), vs Texas Tech (10/26), @ Oklahoma State (11/23)

Notes: Obviously, the good news is that all the undefeated teams have to both play each other and Oklahoma State, who, while they have one loss, doesn't look like too bad of a team.  Also, Oklahoma has the Red River Shootout, which if Texas ever decides to show up to a game, that would be the one to come in for.  Oklahoma may run the table up to Bedlam, though I wouldn't be surprised if they don't.  We'll find out very quickly what Baylor is or is not made of in the conference schedule, and I don't think Texas Tech will stay unbeaten forever, either.  Overall, I don't think any of these teams will come out 12-0, and I don't know if, without a conference championship, they would jump OSU in a three unbeaten scenario.

B1G

A quick recap- it's Good Guys and Them, and we play.

Pac-12

Stanford:

vs. UCLA (10/19), vs Oregon (11/7), vs Notre Dame (11/30)

Oregon:

vs. Washington (10/12), vs. UCLA (10/26), @Stanford (11/7), Oregon State (11/29)

UCLA:

@ Stanford (10/19), @ Oregon (10/26), vs Washington (11/15), @USC (11/30)

Notes: Stanford has the best route to undefeated here, but still has to play some good teams.  Oregon has not really hit the bulk of its schedule, and I don't think UCLA will prove good enough to run the table, especially playing in both Palo Alto and Autzen.  And, of course, there's still a Conference Championship to consider.  Still, if we see two unbeatens in college football, counting the Buckeyes, I think it comes from the Pac-12.

Southeastern Conference:

Missouri (!?):

Ah, the hell with it.  Missou hasn't played anyone, they ain't going undefeated.  Besides, the team to look at is

Well, I'm an idiot.  Missou won big between the hedges.  So:

vs Florida (10/19), vs South Carolina (Oct 26th), @ Ole Miss (11/23), vs Texas A&M (11/30)

Alabama:

vs LSU (11/9), @ Auburn (11/30)

Notes: Alabama's game against LSU really just has the opportunity to upset everything for everyone.  Bama doesn't actually have that tough of a schedule, though will play a very tough championship game.  (Most likely the winner of the Cocktail Party.)  That said, if you told me that they dropped a different game, I wouldn't be too shocked.  It's a common trope to bash the SEC around here, but it's a good conference that can have a lot of odd surprises.  The same is probably true of the Pac-12 and ACC, too, so nothing is a gimmie.

Overall, I don't think we'll see three undefeateds, unless those three are OSU, Stanford/Oregon and Louisvillie.  That would be pretty odd, too.  Of course, the best case for us overall is to go undefeated and have no one else- then there's the argument of which 1 loss team we get.  Also, there's a whole lot of football left, so buckle up your chin strap and enjoy.

Edit 1: Updated with hot Week 7 action, though as I write this UCLA and Cal are still playing.

Comments

unholy bucknut's picture

I'm old enough for the Rose Bowl to mean something but if we play in it this year undefeated its goin to be a big pill to swallow. IMO Oregon, Ala, and Clemson we need two of those teams to lose the media and polls are too high on them for our schedule to allow us to jump them and get in. Oklahoma and Florida State undefeated would be scary but our win streak would keep us in the NCG. We need some outside help this year but all we can do is win out and the BCS will play itself out but we aren't in the drivers seat like we're used to.

OurHonorDefend09's picture

I don't mean to be a jerk, but I believe the NC is actually the Rose Bowl this year, so let's go for it!
 
Can someone double check me on this?
 
also, if Alabama loses to LSU and the PAC-12 schools lose 1 game each in their round robin schedule, it's looking mighty positive for the buckeyes. Just win, baby. 

Don't give up... Don't ever give up.

Oyster's picture

It's played at the Rose Bowl, but the bowl itself is still played too.

OurHonorDefend09's picture

Ahh, that makes more sense. Thanks for the clarification.

Don't give up... Don't ever give up.

BME_Buckeye's picture

Louisville vs. UCF?

Look closely, because the closer you think you are, the less you will actually see.

 

JKH1232's picture

You're right, that's another game.  I admit, I kinda glossed over the American Conference games, since I don't think either team would jump OSU

geoffrsc's picture

Thanks for this. I agree it's unlikely that there will be more than 1 or 2 undefeated teams at season's end. While it has happened, it's the exception rather than the rule. The best football is yet to come this year.
Also agree about the Rose Bowl. Beating Oregon in the 2010 edition was one of the better wins of the Tressel era.

Hovenaut's picture

Thanks for this JKH.

I'm focusing on our team, of course. Just win and it will work out.

Seriously....Ohio State goes 25-0 and gets left out?

Explain that to me come December.

Sick and tired of all this conference perception, victory style points, media hype et al.

"Success - it's what you do with what you got" - Woody Hayes

INTLBUCK's picture

This is what I have been asking as well. 
25-0 would have to mean something at the end of the season. 
Imagine that we don't get the NCG, win the Rose Bowl, then run the table again next year. We could theoretically go 40-0 (I can dream can't I?) and only have had one shot at a crystal football. Really?

Firmthyfriendship's picture

I recall in a certain year when a certain team was undefeated and ranked 6 in the nation and no's 3 4 and 5 fell on the same Saturday to unranked opponents, and the no 2 team fell to an unranked opponent the next Saturday with only two or three more games to be played. As soon as that no 6 team jumped to the no 3 spot they escaped two weeks in a row with narrow wins against unranked opponents and eventually won the national championship. If it's destiny it's destiny and the football gods have deemed it. If not, then accept it and enjoy the season as much as you can. As for me, I love it, and who knows how it is going to play out! I refuse to let the BCS selection committee ruin a season though, so as long as the Buckeyes take care of business and we get a quality win in a major BCS bowl I am happy. Let's get through the season first, though. You cannot worry about what others do, but it is a pleasant surprise when they hand you gifts. Enjoy the ride.
http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/years/2002-schedule.html
 

TexasBuck11's picture

Love the write up! I'm trying not to buy in too early and worry about the other games since we saw tOSU get into the 2002 and 2007 NCG's by "backing in" due to late November losses by top 5 teams. Take care of business and everything else will work itself out. That being said, I will enjoy rooting for the top teams to go down this weekend while OSU sits idly by, already bowl eligible, and rests for Iowa.

alust2013's picture

I think the Buckeyes can pull it off, unless Purdue happens. I think the worst that could happen would be ending up in the Rose Bowl playing Stanford or Oregon. While it wouldn't be a NC, either of those would be a fun game to watch. I'm hoping for another "game of the century" between Bama and LSU because I don't want another Alabama auto-bid to the NCG

...and Michigan still sucks.

denner's picture

I want to see Georgia tumble, Herbie is really on their jock this year.  But when they lose
he will pick another one loss SEC team to stroke.  It's what he does.   

CptBuckeye24's picture

Virginia Tech....that is one team that really matters.  With Miami-VT showdown looming ahead, that team has the shot knock off Clemson/FSU.  That is what we will need.