Week 8 NCAA Picks ATS

JDupler's picture
October 21, 2011 at 12:15p
2 Comments

First post here at 11W.  This comes from my weekly look at the spreads that I post on my blog "Healthy Scratch".

 

Another 5-2 week (6th 5-win week in a row, 33-15-1 overall) but once again, not only do I not gain any traction on Bradley, but I fall further away.  His only loss?  Georgia Tech.  What a Delta Bravo.


There are a bunch of good games on TV.  I am an average bettor that looks at this stuff for a few hours each week and have a winning percentage of 67%, and I am not even winning my own pick 'em pool.  The goal for point spreads is to have have of the bettors take one side.  For Vegas to break even, the bettors should be around .500.  Anyway, this year, the guys who pay rent by betting are absolutely killing Vegas.  Therefore, all the spreads are inflated and I do not feel comfortable taking all 20 and 30 point favorites.


This week I am heavily relying on the trends of America and anything over 90% is fair game.  I don't like to bet on random games that aren't even on TV and in the past this has bitten me in the ass, but that's my strategy this week.  Conference USA/ESPN3.com dominates my picks to click for Week 8:

#4 Oklahoma State (-7) at Missouri Noon FX #riseandfire

I have taken the Pokes for 6 weeks.  I am 5-1 (damn you ULL).  10 point W at least.  This game will last longer than The Godfather.



#9 Arkansas (-18) at Ole Miss 12:21 SEC Net

Arkansas is on a roll and Ole Miss is the mattress of the SEC West.  The 'Hogs only have one loss to Alabama.  They came back against TAMU in Jerry's World and handled Auburn last week.

 

Wake Forest (-3) at Duke 1230 ACC Net

I will take any three-point favorite at Duke.  Wake has been playing well this year, beating FSU at home.  Duke is surprisingly 3-3 with wins against Boston College (20-19) on a missed XP, Tulane and FAU.  Their losses? Stanford, Richmond and Florida State.  Soon to be the Demon Deacons.

 

#13 Nebraska (-25) at Minnesota 3:30 ABC/ESPN2

Huskers put 34 on Ohio State (28 unanswered).  Minnesota gave up 58 (58 unanswered) to Michigan.  The Gophers did put a fight vs the Spoiled Children Sexual Ballers but that was week 2 which seems like 50 years ago.  Nebrasky is well rested after a bye week.  Another big L for the Maroon and Gold.

 

#17 Texas A&M (-21) at Iowa State 330 ABC/ESPN Gameplan/ESPN3.com

Fresh off a win over Baylor, the Aggies head into Ames against a horrible Cyclone squad.  TAMU may be down, but Tannehill threw 6 touchdowns last week against an above average BU team.  He may get 600 against Cy and the boys.

 

#19 Houston (-21) vs. Marshall 4:50

Houston is undefeated.  They have beaten UCLA 38-34 and UTEP 49-42.  Not a very impressive resume, but they do have 6th year senior Case Keenum and Marshall is 3-4.  They have lost to WVU, Ohio 44-7, VT and UCF 16-6.  They are not good and Keenum may have 700 yards.  At half.

 

SMU +3 at Southern Miss 8:00 CBS Sports Network

A great Conf-USA clash between 5-1 teams.  Home teams usually get 3 so these teams are even.  98% of America is taking the Mustangs so I'm gonna roll with the underdog who beat TCU on the road in overtime a few weeks back.  That's about all I got.

 

Games I like but aren't going to take:

#15 West Virginia (-14.5) at Syracuse 8:00 ESPN FRIDAY

WVU's O can score 14 in 2 plays and the Carrier Dome hasn't been rocking since McNabb's victory over VT in 1998.  WVU also has revenge on their beards.  Mountaineers roll.

 

Air Force at #5 Boise State (-31.5) 3:30 Versus

The Falcons gave up 59 to the Irish and 41 to the Aztecs their past two games.  Happy times stopping Kellen Moore on the blue turf for the Broncos' first ever MWC home game.  Boise should not be wearing blue shirts though so birds don't think they are moving puddles, or something.

 

#10 Oregon (-32.5) at Colorado 3:30

Running back: out.  Quarterback: Out.  Colorado: horrible.  45-0 at half.

 

#6 Wisconsin (-7.5) at #18 Michigan State 8:00 ABC GAMEDAY

Only a touchdown?  Is it really going to be that close?  At Sparty at night, ok.  MSU's d-line makes me scared from my couch/south stands, but the 10-7 Buckeye game sticks with me.  State is off a tough, clean win against their arch rivals.  Can Spaty keep up with Wisky?  I say neh.  Possibly a classic intra-conference slug fest.  Probably not.

 

#25 Washington at #8 Stanford (-20) 8:00 ABC

Congrats U-Dub, you have a number now!  You do not have a Locker, you do not have Luck on your side (high fives for puns).  I could see the Huskies nipping the Cardinal if this was a noon game, but at night, on national television?  Stanford sends a message to the Ducks.  Sorry Huskies, you sniffed up the wrong tree on this evening.

 

Games America Likes:

Illinois -4.5 90% at Purdue

Clemson -10.5 96% vs. North Carolina

Kansas State -12 95% at Kansas

Maryland +16.5 98% at Florida State

Tulane -12.5 96% vs. Memphis

Alabama -29 92% vs. Tennessee

Middle Tenn. -6.5 99% at FAU

Washington State -3 95% vs. Oregon State
 

Comments

Alex's picture

Was 4-2 last Week in NCAAF ATS and 3-0-1 in NFL...here'es who I like this week:

 

-Louisville -1.5 vs Rutgers

-Northwestern +4 vs Penn State

-Notre Dame -9 vs USC

-Wisconsin -8 @ MSU

 

NFL

Chiefs +4 at Oakland

Panthers -2.5 vs Washington

Houston +3 at Tennessee

JDupler's picture

NCAA, yuck

NFL, well done