5 Scenarios If Ohio State Can Win Out

JakeBuckeye's picture
October 26, 2010 at 12:48a

This is in response to some grumblings of our inevitable trip to the Capital One Bowl or worse.

(All of these are presuming Ohio State can win out and does not make it back to the BCS National Championship Game)

Here's how I look at it:


Scenario #1                                                                                                           

Sparty: Loses one or more games

Wisconsin: Wins out

Ohio State's bowl bid: BCS at-large or Rose Bowl

Scenario #2                                                                                                           

Sparty: Wins out

Wisconsin: Loses one or more games

Ohio State's bowl bid: BCS at-large

Scenario #3                                                                                                           

Sparty: Loses one game

Wisconsin: Loses one or more games

Ohio State's bowl bid: BCS at-large or Rose Bowl (not sure on tie-breaker rules)

Scenario #4                                                                                                           

Sparty: Loses two or more games

Wisconsin: Loses one or more games

Ohio State's bowl bid: Rose Bowl

Scenario #5                                                                                                           

Sparty: Wins out

Wisconsin: Wins out

Ohio State's bowl bid: Capital One Bowl


I like our chances at a BCS bowl. In my opinion, all five of these scenarios are equally likely and possible.

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BigRedBuckeye's picture

I like your break down. A few comments:

Scenario 1: I am fairly certain we go Rose Bowl here. Presumes our late season schedule is enough to bump us ahead of Wisky in the BCS.


Scenario 2: This is hard to say. You are prob right. However, an undefeated Sparty will probably have a legit shot at the MNC against a 1 loss (BAMA) or undefeated (Auburn) SEC team. I think this would result in Oregon (presumably) playing Boise St. in the Rose, as we would not be slotted in to take Sparty's spot by virtue of Rose Bowl rules (someone correct me if I am wrong). I guess Oregon is the wildcard here; they might trump Sparty for the MNC if they stay undefeated, in which case Sparty goes to the Rose against Boise and we hopefully get an at large bid.

Scenario 3. We go Rose Bowl here also. Tie breaker between 1 loss Sparty and 1 loss OSU (Wisky being out of the picture w 2 losses) is BCS ranking. If Sparty stumbles this late in the season, presumably they fall below us in the BCS, and we go to the Rose. I guess it could get tight if they lose a close one at Iowa this weekend.

Scenario 4: Correct.

Scenario 5: This is the hardest scenario to predict. Sparty may be in MNC. I don't think we can presume what happens if Wisky and OSU each have on loss; the head-to-head result has no real bearing on an at large bid (as far as I remember). They are just as likely to look at things like travel, the intrigue of the match-up, and so forth. Obvi, we wind up in the Capital One if they take Wisky, but it could go the other way too.


And we'll drink to old Ohio, 'Til we wobble in our shoes! 

btalbert25's picture

Looking at the slate of college football games coming up, Ohio State is not out of the hunt for the BCS title.  I'm looking at teams ahead of Ohio State and the possibility that they will lose in the coming weeks.  Michigan State will certainly lose at least 1 game.  One of Utah or TCU is guarrentteed at least 1 loss.  Missouri has a very good chance at losing this weekend.  Auburn will likely not finish undefeated as well, and I'm thinking they lose 1 maybe 2.  I also wouldn't be shocked if Bama drops another game, perhaps a SEC championship to a surging Georgia team. 

A lot of chips have to fall the right way but this season is shaping up to be a lot like 2007, only this Buckeye team is much better than the one that ended up playing LSU.  Honestly though, there is no way that if the only 2 teams left undefeated are Boise and TCU, they both end up in the BCS title game. 

tomcollins's picture

Even Scenario 5 = a probable BCS game.  We just need to take care of business.