Weekly Probabilities 11/5

Goalscorer9's picture
November 5, 2013 at 3:48p
8 Comments

Here they are!  Again, although the process is objective, I acknowledge my probabilities of individual games are subjective, though I think this gives us a pretty good picture of where we are at.

As always, my numbers will be attached for anyone who would like to critique.

Assumptions:
-Ohio State finishes undefeated.  This whole argument starts with "If Ohio State goes undefeated", so we'll assume they do to calculate probabilities
-If Alabama, Florida State, or Oregon finish undefeated, they will remain ahead of Ohio State.
-No 1 loss team will finish in front of an undefeated Ohio State
-Baylor, Fresno State, and Northern Illinois will not jump Ohio State, even if they finish undefeated

Numbers you care about:

-Probability Alabama wins out: 29.5%
-Probability Oregon wins out: 28.6%
-Probability Florida State wins out: 43.1%

-Probability all of them lose, and Ohio State finishes numero uno: 28.6%

-And most importantly, the probability that at least 2 out of these 3 teams lose, and an undefeated Ohio State team finishes in the top 2: 73.7%

Our odds actually went up this week, which I wasn't expecting.  Maybe Miami no longer being in the picture helps more than I realized.  Or perhaps last week I made a mistake in calculating with the double FSU /Miami match up, which is certainly possible.  Good News: Now nobody plays each other, so the calculation is very, very easy lol.  Better news: 73.7% is still decent odds, so don't have panic attacks like the media is saying you should.  Obviously, these odds will change drastically next week, for good or for bad, pending how the big games go.


For those of you who would like to include the possibility of Ohio State losing:
-Probability of Ohio State winning out- 50.1%
-No undefeated assumption odds of Ohio State being in the national championship game- 36.9%

Comments

BuckeyeUte's picture

Thanks for the post and calculations/odds... I just reassure myself that as long as TOSU  wins out we have a good shot at going to the MNC. And I like a rough 75% odds that 2 of the 3 lose. GO BUCKS!

BuckeyeQ6's picture

Thanks for the analysis.  Too bad we only have a 1/3 chance of being in the NCG.  That means we probably have a 1/6 chance (maybe less) of winning the championship.  Those aren't great odds if you consider a failure to win it a lost season.  Personally, I think its a successful season if we win out before the bowl, hopefully making the NCG.
Interesting that we only have a 50-50 shot at winning out.  I guess the same subjective beliefs we have that Alabama, Oregon, and Florida State probably won't lose apply to Ohio State as well--they're all hard to fathom.  I guess if you accept the "history says there won't be more than 2 undefeateds" argument, you have to realize that OSU still has a realistic possibility of losing as well.  Winning out is not as automatic as we all (myself included) tend to think.

DeepSouthBuckeye's picture

So you're telling me there's a chance?!
 

Loving all things Buckeye from SEC country in Alabama.

"How firm thy friendship....O-HI-O"

lippertini's picture

Great stuff, thanks for laying it all out for us.

d5k's picture

Vegas has Oregon -10.5 and Alabama -12.5 this week so Oregon is probably a little more like 65 %than 55% to win at least according to the betting crowd.

TennesseeBuckeye's picture

Massey gives Oregon (-10.5) an 80% chance of winning against Stanford.Alabama (-15.) has an 88% chance of winning. It would be nice if both lost, but Alabama still has Auburn, so if I only get one I hope it's Oregon who goes down. FSU if they lose will be to Florida but not likely. Oregon has OrSU at home, Alabama is at Auburn.
Lets hope these odd and computer guys are wrong!

I may not be able to outsmart too many people, but I can outwork 'em.
Woody Hayes

chicagobuckeye's picture

I'd like all these odds, but after seeing the SEC East. I'd have to say SEC championship game is higher than that more in the 75% range, but splitting hairs at this point.

Seth4Bucks's picture

Awesome and thanks again for doing this. Probably could put Baylor up there to replace Oregon. Regardless of our personal feelings about Baylor over Oklahoma, a lot of pollsters will see the score over a top10 and give them brownie points for that. If they do win out, they'll have faced and beaten some more ranked teams and 'could' overtake OSU in the polls. I doubt it, but I didn't think they'd blow Oklahoma out of the water like they did either.