Here they are! Again, although the process is objective, I acknowledge my probabilities of individual games are subjective, though I think this gives us a pretty good picture of where we are at.
As always, my numbers will be attached for anyone who would like to critique.
-Ohio State finishes undefeated. This whole argument starts with "If Ohio State goes undefeated", so we'll assume they do to calculate probabilities
-If Alabama, Florida State, or Oregon finish undefeated, they will remain ahead of Ohio State.
-No 1 loss team will finish in front of an undefeated Ohio State
-Baylor, Fresno State, and Northern Illinois will not jump Ohio State, even if they finish undefeated
Numbers you care about:
-Probability Alabama wins out: 29.5%
-Probability Oregon wins out: 28.6%
-Probability Florida State wins out: 43.1%
-Probability all of them lose, and Ohio State finishes numero uno: 28.6%
-And most importantly, the probability that at least 2 out of these 3 teams lose, and an undefeated Ohio State team finishes in the top 2: 73.7%
Our odds actually went up this week, which I wasn't expecting. Maybe Miami no longer being in the picture helps more than I realized. Or perhaps last week I made a mistake in calculating with the double FSU /Miami match up, which is certainly possible. Good News: Now nobody plays each other, so the calculation is very, very easy lol. Better news: 73.7% is still decent odds, so don't have panic attacks like the media is saying you should. Obviously, these odds will change drastically next week, for good or for bad, pending how the big games go.
For those of you who would like to include the possibility of Ohio State losing:
-Probability of Ohio State winning out- 50.1%
-No undefeated assumption odds of Ohio State being in the national championship game- 36.9%