Weekly Probabilities 11/20

Goalscorer9's picture
November 20, 2013 at 4:53p
4 Comments

So I'm going to do things a little differently this week.  People have been wanting me to include Baylor in my calculations, but to be frank, I don't know what numbers to assign to whether or not humans will decide if an undefeated Baylor should pass an undefeated Ohio State.  Rather than try to calculate that, which would be purely a guess, I'm going to leave you with 2 scenarios: If you believe an undefeated OSU holds off Baylor, and if you believe an undefeated OSU gets passed by Baylor.  You can choose for yourself which one you want to look at.

As always, my numbers will be included for discussion.  I implemented a few changes that you all suggested last week (Namely, giving FSU much better odds against Florida).  Again, process is objective, individual numbers are subjective, but I try my best.

Individual teams:

Alabama: 42.3% chance of winning out
Florida State: 69.7% chance of winning out
Ohio State: 53.8% chance of winning out
Baylor: 29.7% chance of winning out

If you believe Ohio State holds off an undefeated Baylor:

assuming Ohio State goes undefeated: 17.5% chance of finishing #1, 70.6% chance of finishing in the top 2.

not assuming Ohio State goes undefeated: 9.4% chance of finishing #1, 37.9% chance of finishing in the top 2.

 

If you believe Ohio State would get passed by an undefeated Baylor:

assuming Ohio State goes undefeated: 12.3% chance of finishing #1, 54.8% chance of finishing in the top 2.

not assuming Ohio State goes undefeated: 6.6% chance of finishing #1, 29.5% chance of finishing in the top 2.

 

So, as you can see, there's certainly no reason to give up on those national championship dreams yet.  But it is far from a sure thing.

 

 

Comments

shaggybuckeye's picture

Thanks again for posting these threads. It continues to help bring me back to reality that the chance of playing for the MNC is actually fairly high  should we win out.

WC Buckeye's picture

I love the methodology, and reading the results always gives me a little lift. Nice work.

The only thing that's new in the world is the history that we have forgotten.

Killer nuts's picture

Any chance you could include links to your previous weeks of doing this so we can see the evolution of the percentages?

Goalscorer9's picture

Maybe I'll do that next week.  But it wouldn't be exact as early in the year I wasn't including teams like baylor.  So things outside of the "math" change sometimes haha.  Still, I could give you a rough estimate.  I'll make a chart.  Charts are good.