Here they are! Again, although the process is objective, I acknowledge my probabilities of individual games are subjective, though I think this gives us a pretty good picture of where we are at.
As always, my numbers will be attached for anyone who would like to critique.
-Ohio State finishes undefeated. This whole argument starts with "If Ohio State goes undefeated", so we'll assume they do to calculate probabilities
-If Alabama or Florida State finish undefeated, they will remain ahead of Ohio State.
-No 1 loss team will finish in front of an undefeated Ohio State
-Baylor, Fresno State, and Northern Illinois will not jump Ohio State, even if they finish undefeated
Numbers you care about:
-Probability Alabama wins out: 44.1%
-Probability Florida State wins out: 52.4%
-Probability all of them lose, and Ohio State finishes numero uno: 26.7%
-And most importantly, the probability that at least 1 of these teams lose, and an undefeated Ohio State team finishes in the top 2: 76.9%
76.9% is a number I'll take at this point. Probably won't change much (for good or for bad) until November 30th when Bama takes on Auburn and FSU plays Florida. We just need one more slip up, and the numbers tell us that is fairly likely.
For those of you who would like to include the possibility of Ohio State losing:
-Probability of Ohio State winning out- 50.1%
-No undefeated assumption odds of Ohio State being in the national championship game- 38.5%