Weekly Probabilities 10/28

Goalscorer9's picture
October 28, 2013 at 1:53p

Here they are!  Again, although the process is objective, I acknowledge my probabilities of individual games are subjective, though I think this gives us a pretty good picture of where we are at.  *I tried to find the vegas or massey odds people talked about last week, but after a short search was not able to find them.  If someone provides a link I’d be happy to use those in the future* 

As always, my numbers will be attached for anyone who would like to critique.

-Ohio State finishes undefeated.  This whole argument starts with "If Ohio State goes undefeated", so we'll assume they do to calculate probabilities
-If Alabama, Florida State, Oregon, or Miami finish undefeated, they will jump Ohio State.
-No 1 loss team will finish in front of an undefeated Ohio State
-Baylor, Fresno State, and Northern Illinois will not jump Ohio State, even if they finish undefeated

Numbers you care about:

-Probability Alabama wins out: 29.5%
-Probability Oregon wins out: 25.7%
-Probability Florida State wins out: 23.4%
-Probability Miami wins out: 7.8%

-Probability all of them lose, and Ohio State finishes numero uno: 37%

-And most importantly, the probability that at least 3 out of these 4 teams lose, and an undefeated Ohio State team finishes in the top 2: 63.9%

Our odds took a bit of a dip this week.  Missouri losing certainly helped a little, but their odds were so slim it didn’t matter much.  Oregon clearing the UCLA hurdle was much more substantial.  Still, we’re more likely than not to finish in the top 2, should we go undefeated.  We definitely should be big Stanford and Miami fans this week, though.

For those of you who would like to include the possibility of Ohio State losing:
-Probability of Ohio State winning out- 42.3%
-No undefeated assumption odds of Ohio State being in the national championship game- 27.1%

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