Weekly Probabilities 10/22

Goalscorer9's picture
October 22, 2013 at 2:17p
9 Comments

Here they are!  Thanks to Buckeyes8222, I remember how to do the more complicated calculations now.  Again, although the process is objective, I acknowledge my probabilities of individual games are subjective, though I think this gives us a pretty good picture of where we are at.  As always, my numbers will be attached for anyone who would like to critique.

 

Assumptions:

-Ohio State finishes undefeated.  This whole argument starts with "If Ohio State goes undefeated", so we'll assume they do to calculate probabilities

-If Alabama, Florida State, Oregon, Mizzouri, or Miami finish undefeated, they will jump Ohio State.

-No 1 loss team will finish in front of an undefeated Ohio State

-Baylor, Texas Tech, Fresno State, and Northern Illinois will not jump Ohio State, even if they finish undefeated

 

Numbers you care about:

-Probability Alabama wins out: 26.6%

-Probability Oregon wins out: 18%

-Probability Florida State wins out: 22.2%

-Probability Mizzouri wins out: 3.2%

-Probability Miami wins out: 5.4%

 

-Probability all of them lose, and Ohio State finishes numero uno: 42.9%

-And most importantly, the probability that at least 4 out of these 5 teams lose, and an undefeated Ohio State team finishes in the top 2: 85.4%

 

Is it a sure thing?  No.  But 85.4% is pretty good odds.  Try not to worry so much.


For those of you who would like to include the possibility of Ohio State losing:

-Probability of Ohio State winning out- 37.2%

-Unbiased odds of Ohio State being in the national championship game- 31.8%

 

Comments

AndyVance's picture

Really appreciate these weekly updates. Question re this comment:

although the process is objective, I acknowledge my probabilities of individual games are subjective

How do you set your probabilities of a team winning any particular game? Gut feeling, Vegas odds, "eyeball" test? Since that seems to be the biggest area of subjectivity in the process, I'm interested in how you establish these.
And yes, people should just stay calm, and enjoy the season.
 

Goalscorer9's picture

It is only my opinion on how I would assign them, based on what I've seen of the teams, and factors like home/away, coming off a bye week, that sort of thing.  I usually have a gut number, check that number against the results so far this season for each team, then add/subtract a couple points based on the "extra" factors (usually no more than .1 cumulative).

Vegas odds would be sweet, if anyone knows where I can get them, I'd be happy to start using them in the future, as I'd assume vegas is a better predictor than me lol

AndyVance's picture

I can't recall the sites ESPN uses off the top of my head (sitting on a plane at the moment and typing from my iPhone), but Google "Vegas college football odds" and choose the ESPN page near the top of the search results. Gives four or five different sites' odds for each game.

Doc's picture

Sooooooo, what you're saying is, "We have a chance".

"Say my name."

I_Run_The_Dave's picture

You mean like 1 in a thousand?
No, more like 1 in a million...
So you're saying there's a chance!!

BoFuquel's picture

We have a chance! A real good chance! GO BUCKS!

I wish I didn't know now what I didn't know then.

allinosu's picture

If we don't we don't. It's not the end of the world. Rather win the rose bowl than loose ncg.

TennesseeBuckeye's picture

Using Massey numbers for remaining games are
FLORIDA ST 0.96
ALABAMA    0.95
OREGON     0.90
MISSOURI   0.87
OHIO ST    0.85
BAYLOR     0.84
MIAMI (FL) 0.70
STANFORD 0.70
AUBURN    0.59
TEXAS TECH 0.51
Championship games aren't figured in, so these numbers might drop a little. tOSU does need teams to lose, but if I'm objective I have to say looking at the teams ahead of us and what they've done I'd say the chances are good, not great that three teams could go undefeated. Which of the 4 I don't know (Alabama, Florida St., Oregon, Ohio State). TT and Baylor play each other 1 is going to lose. They both play OU, OkSU, and Texas, there's a loss somewhere in there.
I don't know how they come up with how they figure the PCT chance of a team wining, what I do know is the computers had a VERY BAD WEEK last week, I'm sure 95% of people did not not have Utah beating Stanford but if happened. The chance they gave Alabama beating LSU was 87% and beating Auburn 90% I would say it should be lower. Massey gives OSU a .66 of beating scUM if you give tOSU the same as Alabama beating Auburn, the overall number tOSU gets is .90. Oregon gets a .75 vs Stanford, give them a .66 against Stanford and they drop to .88 overall.
FSU has had 2 undefeated seasons and 1 other regular season with a loss in the Bowl. 6 seasons with a 1 loss. One of those the loss was in a Bowl. 5 of those seasons were ruined by Miami 4 times, 1 time by Florida and 1 time by ND. They have a Freshman QB which means at least a loss. They will face VT or maybe Miami (FL) a second time in ACC CG.
Oregon's biggest challenge is at Stanford, they play UCLA this week and will see them again in Dec., they play OrSU in a few weeks. 
Alabama has LSU and are 5-9 since 2000 and Alabama 5-8 since 2000 and then a SEC CG with a 1 or 2 loss MO team (SC, TN, at Ole Miss, aTm). An undefeated MO plays an undefeated AL, winner is in. Oregon FSU win out, one of those two is in. Flip a coin.
 Speculation is all we have now. IF Alabama, FSU, Oregon, Ohio State go undefeated and add TT or Baylor, 3 teams could be undefeated after Bowls. Next year won't fix this problem somebody would get left out. Or some 1 loss teams will get left out. 
 So best advice, enjoy season. Whatever happens, happens!
Go Bucks! Beat Penn State!
 
 
   

I may not be able to outsmart too many people, but I can outwork 'em.
Woody Hayes

Goalscorer9's picture

those numbers have to be for the upcoming week, correct?  I'll try to use those numbers from now on.  (assuming I can find them easily lol).  Do they venture out and place odds on games in future weeks?