I still believe the BCS picture is about to get even crazier. Now Auburn is creeping their way into the 5 spot, and Missouri is at 6. Clemson is still hanging around and now the Winston controversy is continuing to swirl, the top of the BCS will get crazier with rivalry week and conference championships approaching. For Ohio State, I suspect our BCS average this week will be just over 0.90, maybe close to 0.91. Our biggest competitor and threat, Baylor, got blown out in Stillwater. Then Oregon got blown out too.
Let’s take a look at this picture:
• Alabama – Arguably their two toughest games are ahead; Auburn and the SEC title game. I still have the opinion that they will not win out. They looked vulnerable against Mississippi St. and at times, they look very beatable. If they beat Auburn, they draw either Missouri or South Carolina. If they lose, no SEC title game for Alabama. However, how far will they drop if they lose a game? I think they will fall to 4.
• FSU – Still playing great football against inferior competition. Sorry, I hate to break the news to media, but the ACC is not very good outside of FSU and Clemson. We will see how the ACC does during Bowl Season, but very top heavy and mediocre outside of the top two. And their non-conference schedule is weak and looks even weaker when Florida lost to Georgia Southern. Florida has completely fallen apart and Muschamp’s job may be in jeopardy. Does Florida rally, pull it together, and take down FSU? I am not so sure on this one, but Florida should be playing angry at home in The Swamp on senior day against their biggest rival. Still, maybe Florida can do it. Looking ahead to the ACC title game, Duke controls their own destiny in the Coastal division, but if there is a three-way tie, this link here, explains the tiebreaker scenarios. They draw either Duke, Virginia Tech, or Georgia Tech. Bottom line is, FSU’s last three games were against subpar competition, or furthermore, I think OSU’s last 3 games rank higher in the SOS debate. Nevertheless, on to the elephant in the room: the Winston controversy. If Winston is suspended, this may create a void and the voters may downgrade FSU in the rankings. It seems like FSU’ spot is fluid at the moment and we could be closing the gap on them.
• Ohio State – Now on to the Good Guys. It’s pretty simple; WIN OUT! Winning out assures us we are playing in Pasadena. I will not elaborate too much on tOSU, we all know the drill.
• Auburn – This is interesting. They have Alabama and if they win, the SEC title game. If they win out, how high can they go? Winning out for Auburn means, beating, at the very least, two top-10 teams or two top-5 teams. We know the computers will love that. I do not think they will leap us in the BCS, but nevertheless, it will a discussion point over the next 2 weeks. I figure they will have a about a .83 BCS average, may be slightly lower?! They will be about 0.08 out from OSU and with OSU’s number only going higher (assuming there’s movement ahead), that is a major gap and that’s tough to overcome. If they get to the title game, they will either draw Missouri or South Carolina.
• Missouri – A win against Texas A&M puts them in the SEC title game. A loss, they are out of the title game as South Carolina owns the tiebreaker as Missouri lost to South Carolina. Again, much like Auburn, assuming they win out, how high can they go? They will be at least 0.08 out and that’s tough to overcome. But that means they would have beaten Texas A&M and either number one Alabama, or number 3 Auburn. There is a considerable gap to close and a lot of football ahead.
• South Carolina – A Missouri loss means they go the SEC title game because they own the tie-breaker with Missouri after they defeated them a few weeks ago. They have Clemson this week in a huge inter-state rivalry. They definitely can play spoiler against Clemson’s BCS chances and in the SEC game, if they make it. They are a dark horse team at this point.
I think we are in for more fireworks and drama at the top of the BCS. Of course, the top-3 could just win out and the Winston Storm just passes along. However, I do not anticipate that as the likely scenario. I think Alabama loses a game, most likely to Auburn, and all these crazy scenarios and floodgates open up. Will OSU close FSU’s gap? I think so.
I think this how it will play out:
2. OSU – with a 0.95 BCS average
3. Auburn – they win the SEC – with a 0.92 BCS average
4. Alabama - they sit tight at 4 with a 11-1 record and get an at-large bid
Bottom line, more craziness ahead and there will only be two undefeated teams. That is my prediction. Maybe I am crazy, but two weeks is a lot football and a lot will happen.